2020 Global forecast BTC-S&P-Oil 14-21 Febr

2020 Global forecast BTC-S&P-Oil 14-21 Febr

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
9800 (10000)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
50 (50) 80 (72) 70 (95)
Allocation 0% (0%)


BTC peaked at 10230 last week with an expected correction from high risk ST risk weight and starting the new week at around 9800. Most likel scenario is a bit of weakness early this week followed by further wider range volatility with LT support at 4650 and resistance at 11350. No Change.

Last week: Daily trend resumed its uptrend after a brief pause on bearish divergence. Resistance line from the 2017 peak resides at or near 11350. This market is lead entirely by speculator type participants and BTC clearly benefitted from commodity weakness. This may continue for a while longer as long as data show an increase of Corona infections. Let’s just see how crazy all these markets are. Trader influence is generally key to quick turnarounds and this may just happen if shorter term world economic trade level expectations return to the main trend. No Change in our LT risk awareness approach whilst all risk weight trends are up this weekend


S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3380 (3327)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
95 (94) 83 (83) 96 (84)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Another big push up has defied gravity once more and we must admit that this is the biggest opportunity loss ever with a 20% move from the late 2018 lows. This market remains at high risk hence we stay on the sidelines. Only opportunity in individual stocks can be pursued with caution. Of course the index is largely carried by some of the biggest near monopoly type and undeniably strong tech space companies in the world. No Change.

Last week: Another big bearish risk weight divergence is developing in the ST Daily timeframe as expected last week. This is clearly evident on Stochastic, MACD and RSI indicators. The strong rally into another all time high of course is creating this bearish divergence, yet risk remains extremely high the week ahead. No Change


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
57.33 (54.50)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
38 (34) 12 (15) 38 (8)
Allocation 50% (50%)


ST Daily risk weight rallied further last week from deep oversold condition, whilst MT and LT remain in slight weaker downtrends than last week. We still expect further rally, although we are on alert given general market uncertainty and subsequent volatility due to trader response from events in China. We stay at 50% allocation.

Last week: We increased our allocation to 50% at 56 when the hourly risk weight came into oversold on Monday and turned up. As price pressure continues the LT Monthly turned down last week whilst the weekly timeframe is dropping rapidly. Oil is down for 5 weeks and entirely the result of expected strong reduction of demand due to the flu in China. It is almost unreal to excpect this to continue although major market participants can get scared temporarily. We feel quite confortable with a half allocation and would seek to increase on a very strong bottom indicator. Price risk is relatively small as the broken 56.00 support level is almost certain the be touched again in a reaction to the current downtrend. Such reaction is commnonly part of a multi-day range and we will decide at that time whether to reduce or even increase. The market is volatile, hence eye on the ball


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