2020 Global forecast -BTC-S&P-Oil- 24-31 Jan

2020 Global forecast -BTC-S&P-Oil 24-31 January

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

8466 (8700)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
43 (44) 45 (43) 40 (84)
Allocation 0% (0%)

Daily trend was strongly down whilst Weekly remains up. Although both at similar risk level this could as easily mean a run up into the 9000’s upon a Daily trend change or further Daily weakness pushing the weekly down again. The most likely technical scenario is for BTC to turn a little stronger. We will not participate though given our risk averse position towards Crypto.

Last week: January so far has shown a bit more volatility in Crypto and BTC with most markets showing a fair bit of strength. Where these markets belong is the bigger financial space is still an unknown. Given our reference to an article by Sovereign Man on the USA’s policy of protecting USDollar supremacy as the World’s ONLY reserve currency can also mean that CRYPTO remains in the Spec space and could end in tears for many until this market grows up and can become fully regulated. The latter is necessary for Crypto to be a success and we believe that Bitcoin is likely to need a big hit first for its acceptance as a payment currency in World Trade. We stay out until dust settles which may still be a few years in the making

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3295 (3330)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
97 (97) 94 (99) 86 (96)
Allocation 0% (0%)

Weekly trend turned south by a small margin and so did Daily. The down move in price is not significant and neither is the decline in risk weight. This looks like the downtrend can continue for a while longer and we need to see a quick divergence again between Daily and Weekly in order to expect another attempt to BTFD pushing for new highs again. From a pure speculative perspective the S&P500 could be shortened until we see bullish divergence between ST and MT timeframes. Being short is no option in our risk philosophy, so No Change.

Last week: This Stock Index is Up, Up and Up. Not participating in a market means one cannot win or lose. High risk, and if anything that risk goes up to further extremes every week, means we stay out completely. Our asset allocation management approach limits risk further by not allowing short positions. That is for a minimum speculative allocation only. Getting High risk markets wrong hurts too much if the allocation is too large and thus leveraged. S&P500 and with it virtually every stock market index in the world is lead by cheap money, so it seems for most. It shows very high risk and pushing the extremes in overbought conditions in every time frame, from daily to quarterly. This is Log scale or inflationary territory. No Change

Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
60.56 (64.85)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
45 (45) 65 (65) 12 (12)
Allocation 30% (30%)

Our call to open a 30% long in an uncertain market was indeed suspicious and a little premature as the market opened higher on Monday with a gap and hourly moving into high risk weight. So, we abandoned the trade due to the gap opening risk. However a long position of 30% on the books would be kept in the present technical setting and probably increased if Daily Short term trend turns up on Monday or Tuesday. Reason is strong potential bullish divergence in the ST timeframe whilst weekly is in a downtrend but mid risk weight range with price nearing support through recent lows now at 58.80. With Monthly in an uptrend a rally towards the 70 level could be on the cards. So we are happy to stay with the paper position and will take it to 70% if Daily turns up in bullish risk weight to price divergence.

Last week: This market cannot make up its mind and the technicals give no strong indication that something big is in the making. Short term signals however do call for a slightly stronger market this week and with LT trend being up and Weekly mixed we will allocate a relatively small position of 30%. Crude Oil needs to break out or settle into an oversold condition before our analysis can call for a stronger entry into this market

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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, GLOBAL - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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