BITCOIN BTC/USD	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
8885 (9800)
Trend	↑ (↑)	↓ (↑)	↓ (↓)
% Risk Weight	48 (50)	80 (80)	15 (70)
Allocation	0% (0%)

The 10% drop this wek has just one fundamental reason. Lightening up on profitable position to compensate for losses in other asset classes. Some larger position for sure but small fry compared with the major asset classes. This market remain highly volatile and seeking direction with plenty wishful thinking. Stay out!

Last week: BTC peaked at 10230 last week with an expected correction from high risk ST risk weight and starting the new week at around 9800. Most likely scenario is a bit of weakness early this week followed by further wider range volatility with LT support at 4650 and resistance at 11350. No Change

Standard & Poor 500	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
3380 (3327)
Trend	↓ (↓)	↓ (↓)	↓ (↑)
% Risk Weight	85 (95)	70 (83)	10 (96)
Allocation	0% (0%)

Allright, The Donald’s thumbs up lost it from Corona. How’s that possible? The S&P rolled over late last week following a very weak rally into near 3400 before dropping nearly 14% into this evening’s level of just under 3000. The strong risk drop in the ST daily time frame can develop another rally but it must feel different this time round given the panic that has surfaced over near term world trade disruptions with most major industries suffering badly due to lack of consumer demand or lack of production sources. The seriousness of this development cannot be underestimated and poses a real danger to become one of the biggest economic slow downs in history. It would become a recipe for stagflation. Airlines may literally drop from the skies and this could be a bloodbath of the highest order. Yet it may not have to be if industry panic can rapidly lead to a more balanced behavior towards supply and demand as well as profit and loss. No change. Stay out!

Last week:Another big push up has defied gravity once more and we must admit that this is the biggest opportunity loss ever with a 20% move from the late 2018 lows. This market remains at high risk hence we stay on the sidelines. Only opportunity in individual stocks can be pursued with caution. Of course the index is largely carried by some of the biggest near monopoly type and undeniably strong tech space companies in the world. No Change

Brent	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
51.75 (57.33)
Trend	↓ (↓)	↑ (↓)	↓ (↑)
% Risk Weight	35 (38)	16 (12)	23 (38)
Allocation	50% (50%)

Our recent few trades have netted a smaller profit than the current loss on our 50% long position. Yet, all time frames show in an intra type of bullish divergence due to the very rapid price move and moving into support around the 50 handle.
Given that this is a relatively small position in what is otherwise a very risk averse portfolio and with risk weight in all time frames not showing any serious weakness except price itself, we feel quite comfortable keeping a 50% long position. No Change.

Last week:ST Daily risk weight rallied further last week from deep oversold condition, whilst MT and LT remain in slight weaker downtrends than last week. We still expect further rally, although we are on alert given general market uncertainty and subsequent volatility due to trader response from events in China. We stay at 50% allocation