2020 Global forecast BTC-S&P-Oil-BEST | 27 March

2020 Global forecast BTC-S&P-Oil-BEST | 27 March

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

6100 (6300)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
44 (45) 30 (32) 72 (48)
Allocation 0% (0%)

BTC can as easily fill the 9100 gap or get killed towards the 2000 level. We can sense a bit more sympathy for this high risk and volatile crypto currency however, given the extreme uncertainty over regular fiat currencies in the immediate future.
If the recent low breaks it does not look good from a technical point of view. The Daily timeframe looks like it wants to move lower but the Weekly timeframe may show bullish divergence on a subsequent rally. The coming week will hopefully show us more direction.
We stay out for now but keep following with interest.

Last week: 19:00 Central European time on 23 March 2020. Incredible volatility is hitting markets which does mean opportunity and also very high risk. Strength in BTC over the past few days did not come unexpected and one can also find market reason for the strength as it is a potential safehaven for ‘funny money’. Until it lasts, hence we stay away from this market, but we could easily see the 9100 gap filled with a few days. Looking at Daily weight risk the market could easily tumble again, Looking at weekly the market is ready for bullish divergence as you see in the chart above. The much lowewr price botton 3 weeks ago than back in December, yet the trend is still down. So this not is still not obvious and will be very hard to trade opportunistically. You can be long but must reverse if Daily turns down and this could be at a 10% lower price because risk weight is neutral. As a common rule, daily gaps are usually filled and as there are no clear overbought or oversold risk weight conditions this is anyone’s call. Many are saying that Crypto is the only alternative and some even better than Gold. We would argue the latter of course and we would favor not participating in BTC until this market becomes properly regulated. No Change.

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
2531 (2972)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
65 (60) 20 (15) 40 (8)
Allocation 0% (0%)

We cannot see any low risk opportunity in this market and forecast a much lower level in coming months. At present risk weight levels this stock market index screams volatility. We stay out.

Last week: Technically the S&P looks extremely vulnerable and this time it has little chance of turning strongly against the downtrend as there is simply too much uncertainty about the economic impact of these worldwide lockdowns. In Europe it has become clear that medical experts say that we will probably need at least until June before any reliable statistics are available that allow the removal of the minimum restrictions relating to group gatherings. Impact on the economies worldwide will keep a lid on equity markets. Mining stocks may do fairly well if they are organized to maintain net exploration stock in their balance sheets. Making predictions about time and price is irrelevant. This market should NOT be owned even though some ‘experts investors’ in main stream financial media try to convince us that nibbling at certain sectors and then building a new portfolio on the way down is probably a good strategy. One can bet that most of these ‘expert investors’ are consumers of a siginificant loss for their clients and very likely their own account. As many own the FAANG space there is still fat on their bones, but for how long? Our outlook is to reach the 800-1200 range which may be adjusted nearer that level. Stay out!


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
27.17 (27.17)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
17 (17) 5 (5) 9 (9)
Allocation 50% (50%)

Brent crude is a poor long trade but risk weight appears minor with a great chance of filling the $45 gap. Fundamentally this could because of cut down in production as that should make little difference since the current Aramco policy will not work under these bizar Corona circumstances.
It is a risk that will be easily absorbed especially if Metals start making the expected move even thoughmetals is currently more preservation and insurance rather than opportunity. See Gold Forecast 27 March

Last week: Our position is a 5% allocation of total assets losing 50%. That was a poor call but nothing to worry about. Being unleveraged as a rule of investment strategy is a safehaven in its own right. At this moment we see Daily and Weekly risk weight turning up and we feel confident that the loss will be minimised once we cover the opening gap at $45.27 or even well beyond some time in the future. Rolling this forward is a no brainer at this moment. Oil won’t go to zero and stay there. Even then, our main concern is wealth preservation and the cash position is still too large for comfort. The long position in precious metals should give full protection for the larger part of the current portfolio adjusted for inflation. Future metals prices may even and are expected to provide a substantial cushion and outweigh recent current valuations of the total portfolio. We consider Oil to be fairly low risk in the overall scheme and inflationary pressures from a multi-trillion quantitative easing operation will push prices up again. Technically risk weight is at MT and ST oversold levels. No Change.

Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0710 (0.0565)
Trend NA (NA) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
NA (NA) 30 (22) 77 (82)
Allocation 100%

BEST TOKEN live price 24/7

We have decided to introduce this token to our marketwatch because this is one of a the few new Fintech companies with a banking license and a very thorough compliance driven operation. One could not exist without the other of course. We could have looked at other Banking type Fintechs like Revolut, which has shown incredible month on month growth, but the problem for us is the higher portfolio risk due Revoluts reliance on system banks in the UK for its customer operation. Nevertheless a brilliant operation which works as we had our own positive experience with Revolut whilst traveling to other continents only one year ago.
Our cash holdings are only with nationalised banks in The Netherlands. At least of something goes wrong we’re in it together hoping to be saved by an out of the box reset solution if at all.
Otherwise no change in our full 5% allocation to the BEST token.

March 23:Introducing Bitpanda Pro: To read about Bitpanda and BEST token please click here.
Bitpanda is the rapidly growing Austrian regulated (licensed) crypto exchange offering an outright buy sell and swap platform in physical Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium accounts besides the major crypto currencies. The exchange is primarily directed at European traders and speculators. The present day uncertainty warrants not so much a position yet in Crypto currency as we have been avoiding until now, but it does regarding a rapidly maturing crypto space in which a highly secure exchange platform like Bitpanda offers a different kind of participation which has all the ingredients of becoming a unit within a new asset class, just like the Binance Coin (BNB).
We have allocated a full 5% of our portfolio to this instrument with a longer term outlook. This decision is based on the uncertainty over the financial system as it exists today and the need to find alternatives for cash which at the present speed of quantitative easing, doubling debt with every US president except Clinton during the past 40 years, could or even should become another form of financial insurance in the technology space just like Gold and Silver have been for 6000 years. We will add this analysis to our Global market blog.

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