BITCOIN BTC/USD	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
9322 (8466)
Trend	↓ (↓)	↑ (↑)	↓ (↓)
% Risk Weight	43 (43)	45 (45)	85 (40)
Allocation	0% (0%)

Daily trend turned up and now shows bearish price to risk divergence in its own timeframe. LT resistance at 11400 with support at 4650. One of our biggest concerns for participants in Crypto is the world wide crackdown on trading BTC for fiat. We believe Gold and Silver and Oil and Copper are better bets for a positive return on Investment in the Medium Term.

Last week: Daily trend was strongly down whilst Weekly remains up. Although both at similar risk level this could as easily mean a run up into the 9000’s upon a Daily trend change or further Daily weakness pushing the weekly down again. The most likely technical scenario is for BTC to turn a little stronger. We will not participate though given our risk averse position towards Crypto

Standard & Poor 500	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
3225 (3295)
Trend	↓ (↑)	↓ (↓)	↓ (↓)
% Risk Weight	95 (97)	87 (99)	38 (96)
Allocation	0% (0%)

Even though the ST Daily started a stronger downtrend and may diverge into a price rally again, this stock index still looks very high risk like it has done since September 2018. LT Monthly risk trend turned down at the January close with MT support coming in at 2500. This is a risk not to be taken. No change in staying away from the general stock market.

Last week: Weekly trend turned south by a small margin and so did Daily. The down move in price is not significant and neither is the decline in risk weight. This looks like the downtrend can continue for a while longer and we need to see a quick divergence again between Daily and Weekly in order to expect another attempt to BTFD pushing for new highs again. From a pure speculative perspective the S&P500 could be shortened until we see bullish divergence between ST and MT timeframes. Being short is no option in our risk philosophy, so No Change

Brent	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
56.66 (60.56)
Trend	↑ (↑)	↓ (↓)	↑ (↑)
% Risk Weight	45 (45)	35 (65)	9 (12)
Allocation	50% (30%)

Last week: Both Daily and Weekly tools are showing multiple bullish divergence if this market turns higher in the next few days. Horizontal support at the 56 handle has held. It is tempting to buy into this rapid weakness. We will invest or raise our stake to 50% allocation on Monday February 3.

Last week: Our call to open a 30% long in an uncertain market was indeed suspicious and a little premature as the market opened higher on Monday with a gap and hourly moving into high risk weight. So, we abandoned the trade due to the gap opening risk. However a long position of 30% on the books would be kept in the present technical setting and probably increased if Daily Short term trend turns up on Monday or Tuesday. Reason is strong potential bullish divergence in the ST timeframe whilst weekly is in a downtrend but mid risk weight range with price nearing support through recent lows now at 58.80. With Monthly in an uptrend a rally towards the 70 level could be on the cards. So we are happy to stay with the paper position and will take it to 70% if Daily turns up in bullish risk weight to price divergence.