2020 Global forecast BTC-S&P-Oil 7-14 Febr

2020 Global forecast BTC-S&P-Oil 7-14 Febr

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
10000 (9322
Trend ↑ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
50 (43) 72 (45) 95 (40)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Daily trend resumed its uptrend after a brief pause on bearish divergence. Resistance line from the 2017 peak resides at or near 11350. This market is lead entirely by speculator type participants and BTC clearly benefitted from commodity weakness. This may continue for a while longer as long as data show an increase of Corona infections. Let’s just see how crazy all these markets are. Trader influence is generally key to quick turnarounds and this may just happen if shorter term world economic trade level expectations return to the main trend. No Change in our LT risk awareness approach whilst all risk weight trends are up this weekend.

Last week: Daily trend turned up and now shows bearish price to risk divergence in its own timeframe. LT resistance at 11400 with support at 4650. One of our biggest concerns for participants in Crypto is the world wide crackdown on trading BTC for fiat. We believe Gold and Silver and Oil and Copper are better bets for a positive return on Investment in the Medium Term.


S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3327 (3225)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
94 (95) 83 (87) 84 (38)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Another big bearish risk weight divergence is developping in the ST Daily timeframe as expected last week. This is clearly evident on Stochastic, MACD and RSI indicators. The strong rally into another all time high of course is creating this bearish divergence, yet risk remains extremely high the week ahead. No Change.

Last week: Even though the ST Daily started a stronger downtrend and may diverge into a price rally again, this stock index still looks very high risk like it has done since September 2018. LT Monthly risk trend turned down at the January close with MT support coming in at 2500. This is a risk not to be taken. No change in staying away from the general stock market


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
54.50 (56.66)
Trend ↓ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
34 (35) 15 (35) 8 (9)
Allocation 50% (50%)


We increased our allocation to 50% at 56 when the hourly risk weight came into oversold on Monday and turned up. As price pressure continues the LT Monthly turned down last week whilst the weekly timeframe is dropping rapidly. Oil is down for 5 weeks and entirely the result of expected strong reduction of demand due to the flu in China. It is almost unreal to excpect this to continue although major market participants can get scared temporarily. We feel quite confortable with a half allocation and would seek to increase on a very strong bottom indicator. Price risk is relatively small as the broken 56.00 support level is almost certain the be touched again in a reaction to the current downtrend. Such reaction is commnonly part of a multi-day range and we will decide at that time whether to reduce or even increase. The market is volatile, hence eye on the ball.

Last week: Both Daily and Weekly tools are showing multiple bullish divergence if this market turns higher in the next few days. Horizontal support at the 56 handle has held. It is tempting to buy into this rapid weakness. We will invest or raise our stake to 50% allocation on Monday February 3


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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2020 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - OIL - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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