2020 Global forecast BTC-S&P-Oil 8 March

2020 Global forecast BTC-S&P-Oil 8 March

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
9095 (8885)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
50 (48) 72 (80) 40 (15)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Attention seems to be moving away from crypto. This modern day safehaven asset needs to take a breather as other matters are still more important. Direction is very uncertain and the class remains high risk. We still believe that price needs to touch then high 2000’s or much lower before being a serios fiat contender. No Change.

Last week: The 10% drop this week has just one fundamental reason. Lightening up on profitable position to compensate for losses in other asset classes. Some larger position for sure but small fry compared with the major asset classes. This market remain highly volatile and seeking direction with plenty wishful thinking. Stay out!


S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
2972 (2970)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
70 (85) 53 (70) 35 (10)
Allocation 0% (0%)


With all time frames turning negative to an extend that bullish divergence is highly unlikely, the stock market looks extremely vulnerable. We stepped away from this market over 18 months ago and even though price is still in historic high territory the risk of a sharp drop is significant. Anytone staying in this market clearly likes a very hot kitchen. Only hyperinflation could drive this market to maintain higher price levels. Stagflation, if that is the result of present world conditions, probably will not.

Last week:Allright, The Donald’s thumbs up lost it from Corona. How’s that possible? The S&P rolled over late last week following a very weak rally into near 3400 before dropping nearly 14% into this evening’s level of just under 3000. The strong risk drop in the ST daily time frame can develop another rally but it must feel different this time round given the panic that has surfaced over near term world trade disruptions with most major industries suffering badly due to lack of consumer demand or lack of production sources. The seriousness of this development cannot be underestimated and poses a real danger to become one of the biggest economic slow downs in history. It would become a recipe for stagflation. Airlines may literally drop from the skies and this could be a bloodbath of the highest order. Yet it may not have to be if industry panic can rapidly lead to a more balanced behavior towards supply and demand as well as profit and loss. No change. Stay out!


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
45.50 (51.75)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
17 (35) 12 (16) 15 (23)
Allocation 50% (50%)


This is our first higher risk trade in a long time and it sits at a loss. The advantage of zero leverage is that the nominal expense is mild and is well compensated for by (paper) gains on metals. The question is what next? Risk weight is down in all time frames and the fundamental picture is poor due to Aramco offering larger discounts. As we are in freefall and looking at a possible gap down opening on Monday 9 March, we right course is to check the gap being filled and decide to accept the loss or stay with it because subsequent action creates a serious oversold market. Oil suffers from oversupply, at least on paper, and may turnaround rapidly if the current Corona spike ends just like any flu. So, for now we let this market continue doing whatever it needs to do and await a technical reaction to either increase of decrease our very manageable small risk position. No change holding our 50% allocation (5% of total) to this class.

Last week:Our recent few trades have netted a smaller profit than the current loss on our 50% long position. Yet, all time frames show in an intra type of bullish divergence due to the very rapid price move and moving into next support around the 50 handle.
Given that this is a relatively small position in what is otherwise a very risk averse portfolio and with risk weight in all time frames not showing any serious weakness except price itself, we feel quite comfortable keeping a 50% long position. No Change


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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2020 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - OIL - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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