2020 Global forecast BTC-S&P-Oil-BEST | 3 April

2020 Global forecast BTC-S&P-Oil-BEST | 3 April

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

6735 (6100)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
40 (44) 33 (30) 73 (72)
Allocation 0% (0%)

Mt Weekly and LT Monthly are showing opposite force, If the Shorter term wins that gap fill at 9100 is on the card and which could then easily translate into the a false violation of the overhead downtrend resistance, this month at 10700. We do not speculate in this market because risk can turn overweight if not handled with precision. Short term speculation with a small and maximised allocation is still high risk. Small easily becomes large. No Change!

Previous week 27/3: BTC can as easily fill the 9100 gap or get killed towards the 2000 level. We can sense a bit more sympathy for this high risk and volatile crypto currency however, given the extreme uncertainty over regular fiat currencies in the immediate future.
If the recent low breaks it does not look good from a technical point of view. The Daily timeframe looks like it wants to move lower but the Weekly timeframe may show bullish divergence on a subsequent rally. The coming week will hopefully show us more direction.
We stay out for now but keep following with interest

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
2490 (2531)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
45 (65) 18 (20) 62 (40)
Allocation 0% (0%)

The question is whether the 12 year support line will be indefintely broken. It broke late March is now hovers around that 2500 level. It all depends on whether the ‘Anything it takes policy’ continues to include facilitating the purchase of own stocks. Investment banks seem to be reluctant in making strong predictions either way although leaning towards less. We believe that BTFD is no longer the name of the game. Risk weight in different time frames cannot give a clear indication of direction except for very short term speculation including hourly and 10 minutes time frames. Not our purpose and we predict this market to lose 50% of its value from current levels.

Previous week 27/3: We cannot see any low risk opportunity in this market and forecast a much lower level in coming months. At present risk weight levels this stock market index screams volatility. We stay out.


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
34.65 (27.17)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
15 (17) 8 (5) 43 (9)
Allocation 50% (50%)

45.27 is the level that must be reached to fill the gap. With a commodity like oil this is an easy prediction, although we cannot be sure on timing. It usually also happens within a reasonably short period although the current stretch is long and just a little painful. Depending on future production levels this could last much longer or even develop a profitable trade. We are probably seeking to exit upon gapfill and hopefully near the 50 handle. For now the risk weight levels are giving support to this strategy in the short to medium term.

Previous week 27/3: Brent crude is a poor long trade but risk weight appears minor with a great chance of filling the $45 gap. Fundamentally this could because of cut down in production as that should make little difference since the current Aramco policy will not work under these bizar Corona circumstances.
It is a risk that will be easily absorbed especially if Metals start making the expected move even thoughmetals is currently more preservation and insurance rather than opportunity. See Gold Forecast 27 March

Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0780 (0.0710)
Trend NA (NA) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
NA (NA) 50 (30) 90 (77)
Allocation 100%

BEST token live price 24/7

THe BEST token performed well last week and looks to be making an attempt to reach its introduction price of 0.085 after 9 months. With MT weekly in a strong uptrend we could see more pressure upward with Daily developing bearish divergence in a second or third peaking attempt. The potential of BEST is for that of a well managed conservative company offering several benefits from owning a penny stock. If the company manages to strike even harder in the European market, this token could develop as a leading indicator for what goes on in the crypto space. Just like the Binance token.

Courtesy chart of the Binance coin in USD which started life in 2017 at 0.05.

Previous week 27/3: We have decided to introduce this token to our marketwatch because this is one of a the few new Fintech companies with a banking license and a very thorough compliance driven operation. One could not exist without the other of course. We could have looked at other Banking type Fintechs like Revolut, which has shown incredible month on month growth, but the problem for us is the higher portfolio risk due Revoluts reliance on system banks in the UK for its customer operation. Nevertheless a brilliant operation which works as we had our own positive experience with Revolut whilst traveling to other continents only one year ago.
Our cash holdings are only with nationalised banks in The Netherlands. At least of something goes wrong we’re in it together hoping to be saved by an out of the box reset solution if at all.
Otherwise no change in our full 5% allocation to the BEST token.

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