BITCOIN BTC/USD	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
6690 (6735)
Trend	↓ (↓)	↑ (↑)	↓ (↓)
% Risk Weight	40 (40)	40 (33)	60 (73)
Allocation	0% (0%)

BTC had another week of 10%+ range, mostly downward and retracing all of the previous week’s advance. The weekly still shows a potential for pushing the market up towards that gap at 9100. But maybe 6000 first or lower as Daily and Monthly trends are mildly down. The Weekly has the strongest and only signal for some direction as it shows bullish divergence since 3 weeks. BTC may also benefit short term from further diversification away from cash in the bank, but certainly not to the extend where so many people are seeking a safehaven buying physical Gold and Silver. No Change.

Previous 3 April: Mt Weekly and LT Monthly are showing opposite force, If the Shorter term wins that gap fill at 9100 is on the card and which could then easily translate into the a false violation of the overhead downtrend resistance, this month at 10700. We do not speculate in this market because risk can turn overweight if not handled with precision. Short term speculation with a small and maximised allocation is still high risk. Small easily becomes large. No Change!

Standard & Poor 500	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
2775 (2490)
Trend	↓ (↓)	↑ (↓)	↑ (↑)
% Risk Weight	52 (45)	35 (18)	94 (62)
Allocation	0% (0%)

Last week’s performance is nothing short of stunning. For us this type of market behavior cannot be explained looking at the various risk angles. Clearly some individual companies short term will benefit from strong demand from the present crisis. From a Medium term risk perspective a strong stock market just doesn’t make any sense whatsoever. It looks like this market is being manipulated which given its sheer size, being long this index must be the biggest speculative risk imaginable. The technical picture looks weak as MOnthly is in a down trend, Daily in overbought territory and Weekly up, but under pressure from both the Shorter and longer term time frame. This remains a very high risk market and no reason the change our call for a level of 1200 sometime within the next few years. No Change.

Previous 3 April: The question is whether the 12 year support line will be indefintely broken. It broke late March is now hovers around that 2500 level. It all depends on whether the ‘Anything it takes policy’ continues to include facilitating the purchase of own stocks. Investment banks seem to be reluctant in making strong predictions either way although leaning towards less. We believe that BTFD is no longer the name of the game. Risk weight in different time frames cannot give a clear indication of direction except for very short term speculation including hourly and 10 minutes time frames. Not our purpose and we predict this market to lose 50% of its value from current levels.

Brent	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
31.25 (34.65)
Trend	↓ (↓)	↑ (↑)	↓ (↑)
% Risk Weight	15 (15)	20 (8)	70 (43)
Allocation	50% (50%)

With Monthly still most likely looking to develop a bulish divergence upon the risk weight trend turning up, with Weekly turning up at the 20 level and daily not at an short term divergence extrem, we feel confortable to stayy with our somewhat undesired small long position until this market gets overbought. As gaps are always filled at some point we will get out with a smaller loss and maybe even a profit. Poor position but manageable. No Change.

Previous 3 April: 45.27 is the level that must be reached to fill the gap. With a commodity like oil this is an easy prediction, although we cannot be sure on timing. It usually also happens within a reasonably short period although the current stretch is long and just a little painful. Depending on future production levels this could last much longer or even develop a profitable trade. We are probably seeking to exit upon gapfill and hopefully near the 50 handle. For now the risk weight levels are giving support to this strategy in the short to medium term.

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR	LT-M	MT-W	ST-D
0.0800 (0.0780)
Trend	NA (NA)	↑ (↑)	↓ (↓)
% Risk Weight	NA (NA)	50 (30)	90 (77)
Allocation	100%

Bitpanda’s BEST token is looking even more interesting since on 9 April Bitpanda’s founders and Speedinvest announced the sale of a portion of their holding to the Startup Venture Capitalist firm Speedinvest at a yet undisclosed valuation. This investment can significantly drive the number of exchange listings on the Bitpanda platform, which should generate strong investor interest. Bitpanda is a fully regulated and established crypto exchange in Europe with formal Payment Services Directive 2 license from the Austrian Financial Market Authority. Bitpanda therefor is most likely to further develop into a full service bank ‘new style’ and may even compete with the likes of Revolut in a few years time or sooner. If The BEST token starts to reflect this potential we would be looking to increase the allocation and or diversify into other offerings from the Bitpanda exchange. Unlike Binance this token is too young to develop a clear technical direction although the risk weight trend in Mid March did develop strong bullish divergence in the Daily time frame. BEST token owners will benefit from special privileges, such as discounts on trading fees and free credits depending on volume of trading on the exchange. As Bitpanda is already a an established and mature regulated crypto exchange, it could easily become the first choice in Europe as the platform is so user friendly with strong focus on compliance and security, making it a very safe counterparty. Particularly attractive for smaller investors (€1000 to €100,000) are the hard asset tokens gold, silver, platinum and palladium, which can be easily swapped into from any of the other crypto assets and/or fiat currency funding in a private of business account.

Previous 3 April: The BEST token performed well last week and looks to be making an attempt to reach its introduction price of 0.085 after 9 months. With MT weekly in a strong uptrend we could see more pressure upward with Daily developing bearish divergence in a second or third peaking attempt. The potential of BEST is for that of a well managed conservative company offering several benefits from owning a penny stock. If the company manages to strike even harder in the European market, this token could develop as a leading indicator for what goes on in the crypto space. Just like the Binance token.

Courtesy chart of the Binance coin in USD which started life in 2017 at 0.05.