2020 Global forecast BTC-S&P-Oil-BEST | 19 April

2020 Global forecast BTC-S&P-Oil-BEST | 19 April

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
7105 (6690)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
40 (40) 42 (40) 62 (60)
Allocation 0% (0%)


With the kind of common volatility that typifies the crypto currency market we wouldn’t be surprised to see a quick rise to fill the gap at 9100. The bullish divergence confirmation on the weekly would support this analysis, however we still remain on the sidelines as the larger risk remains to fill the gap at 2800. The overhang of BTC is huge even if the dollar devalues as a result of a global monetary reset. If we happen to see a major drop first, then it may be time to find good reason to enter the BTC market, although the Best token a discussed below looks much more attractive as a modern day investment and especially because the Corana Pandemic is expected to rapidly drive solid crypto exchanges into listing many more asset backed tokens. No Change, no allocation.

10 April: BTC had another week of 10%+ range, mostly downward and retracing all of the previous week’s advance. The weekly still shows a potential for pushing the market up towards that gap at 9100. But maybe 6000 first or lower as Daily and Monthly trends are mildly down. The Weekly has the strongest and only signal for some direction as it shows bullish divergence since 3 weeks. BTC may also benefit short term from further diversification away from cash in the bank, but certainly not to the extend where so many people are seeking a safehaven buying physical Gold and Silver. No Change


S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
2875 (2775)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
51 (52) 36 (35) 92 (94)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Another very strong week on record in this manipulated market. This advance however looks like a textbook Elliott Wave correction. With Daily in overbought territory and Monthly in a bearish divergence downtrend, this Index represents high risk. Why buy an index full of companies that are being semi-nationalised and not allowed to pay dividends. If the index rises due to currency devaluation, the relative strength vis a vis hard assets will be low. It could be that this equity market again surprises, but it also seems so unreal given the pandemic forced transformation to a different future. No Change, no allocation to any index of equities.

10 April: Last week’s performance is nothing short of stunning. For us this type of market behavior cannot be explained looking at the various risk angles. Clearly some individual companies short term will benefit from strong demand from the present crisis. From a Medium term risk perspective a strong stock market just doesn’t make any sense whatsoever. It looks like this market is being manipulated which given its sheer size, being long this index must be the biggest speculative risk imaginable. The technical picture looks weak as MOnthly is in a down trend, Daily in overbought territory and Weekly up, but under pressure from both the Shorter and longer term time frame. This remains a very high risk market and no reason the change our call for a level of 1200 sometime within the next few years. No Change.


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
28.25 (31.25)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
12 (15) 17 (20) 45 (70)
Allocation 50% (50%)


The first expected action, a production cut has materialised. The world, given lack of regular demand, is building a massive oil reserve which is pushing the price down. We will be looking to increase our position if for instance the Weekly risk weight shows bullish divergence with an oversold Daily and Monthly timeframe. Oil producing companies will, as markets normalise somewhat, allow price discovery without relaxing production. This could drive a much higher oil price, besides the fact that the gap at 45 must sill be filled anyhow. It always does.

10 April: With Monthly still most likely looking to develop a bulish divergence upon the risk weight trend turning up, with Weekly turning up at the 20 level and daily not at an short term divergence extrem, we feel confortable to stayy with our somewhat undesired small long position until this market gets overbought. As gaps are always filled at some point we will get out with a smaller loss and maybe even a profit. Poor position but manageable. No Change.


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0800 (0.0935)
Trend NA (NA) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
NA (NA) 87 (50) 90 (90)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


In a matter of 4 to 5 weeks the BEST token has recovered its entire depreciation since trading started plus a bit more. Early speculators must have been a little disappointed, even though Bitpanda introduced a number of interesting incentives beyond the existing transaction discount features and the burning of tokens used for payment of fees which were part of the offer upon introduction of BEST. The Bitpanda BEST token has now advanced 100% from the March lows and there is a reason. Crypto exchanges are the future of investment and possibly finance. New generations of investors already believe that ‘banking’, ‘investment banking’, ‘investing in different asset classes including precious metals’ is transforming to the future players in this world. And those players will be the regulated Fintech exchanges like Bitpanda. With its recent new (minority) shareholder Speedinvest, Bitpanda has more opportunity to deliver new investment tokens based on traditional and speculative introductions. IPO’s become ICO’s in the new world of private banking and private equity investing. Operating in a totally trusted and compliance controlled environment with full support of the Austrian National Bank should give Bitpanda a head start in this new investment industry. This exchange has the characteristic of an institution that could grow parabolically. The approach appears very solid based on powerful, secure, state of the art systems. There is as yet little technical risk management possible due to limited data. Another 6 months should be enough to make our simple risk management tools work well for this young player. A decisive break of 0,10 may trigger more demand as interest in new investment and banking technologies grows. We may increase our total allocation once we see the number of Bitpanda account openings take another leap forward.

10 April: Bitpanda’s BEST token is looking even more interesting since on 9 April Bitpanda’s founders and Speedinvest announced the sale of a portion of their holding to the Startup Venture Capitalist firm Speedinvest at a yet undisclosed valuation. This investment can significantly drive the number of exchange listings on the Bitpanda platform, which should generate strong investor interest. Bitpanda is a fully regulated and established crypto exchange in Europe with formal Payment Services Directive 2 license from the Austrian Financial Market Authority. Bitpanda therefor is most likely to further develop into a full service bank ‘new style’ and may even compete with the likes of Revolut in a few years time or sooner. If The BEST token starts to reflect this potential we would be looking to increase the allocation and or diversify into other offerings from the Bitpanda exchange. Unlike Binance this token is too young to develop a clear technical direction although the risk weight trend in Mid March did develop strong bullish divergence in the Daily time frame. BEST token owners will benefit from special privileges, such as discounts on trading fees and free credits depending on volume of trading on the exchange. As Bitpanda is already a an established and mature regulated crypto exchange, it could easily become the first choice in Europe as the platform is so user friendly with strong focus on compliance and security, making it a very safe counterparty. Particularly attractive for smaller investors (€1000 to €100,000) are the hard asset tokens gold, silver, platinum and palladium, which can be easily swapped into from any of the other crypto assets and/or fiat currency funding in a private of business account.

Courtesy chart of the Binance coin in USD which started life in 2017 at 0.05.


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