2020 Global forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 24 April

2020 Global forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 19 April

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
2835 (2875)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
50 (52) 47 (36) 78 (94)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Technically we see little change in risk weight chnaging towards a more bullish picture. The US market still looks highly manipulated and other markets simply follow that path. For how long? Since the drop from 3400 mid February the mediumterm time frame has yet to produce a first bullish divergence. This has not happened and should best be expected given the 1200 point retracement into the third week of March. This market is in a downtrend that could last for a long time.The February peak also produced tghe first bearish divergence peak in the Monthly timeframe since the 2000 bubble. That is significant and must not be ignored. No Change to our outlook for a drop towards 1100-1200.

17 April: Another very strong week on record in this manipulated market. This advance however looks like a textbook Elliott Wave correction. With Daily in overbought territory and Monthly in a bearish divergence downtrend, this Index represents high risk. Why buy an index full of companies that are being semi-nationalised and not allowed to pay dividends. If the index rises due to currency devaluation, the relative strength vis a vis hard assets will be low. It could be that this equity market again surprises, but it also seems so unreal given the pandemic forced transformation to a different future. No Change, no allocation to any index of equities


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
21.80 (28.25)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
12 (12) 16 (17) 20 (45)
Allocation 50% (50%)


The massacre in the oil market probably has created a major opportunity, but this market has not yet made the turn we expected some time ago. Our portfolio loss is covered through our precious metals holding and we will keep it. Oil will always be a critical and protected commodity.
The recent large fluctuations are not in the interest of any of the major producing countries and we have some gaps to fill. If the ST and MT turn down again in coming weeks with a developing bullish risk weight divergence in the Monthly time frame we look to go full in.
No Change for now.

19 April: The first expected action, a production cut has materialised. The world, given lack of regular demand, is building a massive oil reserve which is pushing the price down. We will be looking to increase our position if for instance the Weekly risk weight shows bullish divergence with an oversold Daily and Monthly timeframe. Oil producing companies will, as markets normalise somewhat, allow price discovery without relaxing production. This could drive a much higher oil price, besides the fact that the gap at 45 must sill be filled anyhow. It always does.

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
7500 (7105)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
40 (40) 47 (42) 76 (62)
Allocation 0% (0%)


BTC is experiencing a strong rally from recent lows with volatility picking up. Daily and Weekly look strong whilst Monthly could easily turn up after the April close. This will then likely push it to fill the gap at 9100 and maybe a bit higher. Due to the highly volatile and manipulated nature of this young market we still refrain from participation although it sometimes does look to present trading opportunity. No change, no allocation.

19 April: With the kind of common volatility that typifies the crypto currency market we wouldn’t be surprised to see a quick rise to fill the gap at 9100. The bullish divergence confirmation on the weekly would support this analysis, however we still remain on the sidelines as the larger risk remains to fill the gap at 2800. The overhang of BTC is huge even if the dollar devalues as a result of a global monetary reset. If we happen to see a major drop first, then it may be time to find good reason to enter the BTC market, although the Best token a discussed below looks much more attractive as a modern day investment and especially because the Corana Pandemic is expected to rapidly drive solid crypto exchanges into listing many more asset backed tokens. No Change, no allocation



Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0913 (0.0800)
Trend NA (NA) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
NA (NA) 91 (87) 66 (90)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


BEST is an investment in a crypto exchange that has the potential of becoming a major player for trading a variety of asset backed tokens, crypto currencies and precious metals in a fully regulated setting in Europe. The technical picture for Daily and Weekly risk weight is also in favor of staying with BEST. After a 10% drop last week the token recovered to just above 0.09 and can be considered a MT hold for now. This market is very young and even a minor short term divergence between Daily and Weekly could involve a rapid price move. It will take another 6 months before we see a first monthly indicator on our screen. If we need to single out a European regulated exchange that could cover a wider spectrum of financial services it would have to be Bitpanda. For a European citizen the likes of Binance, Kraken or Coinbase could not fill that space with the same confidence. We continue to monitor the Binance chart below as there is similarity in purpose. The development of BEST will be slower due to the strongly compliance driven nature of the Bitpanda business. We stay fully invested with a 5% of total portfolio allocation.

19 April: In a matter of 4 to 5 weeks the BEST token has recovered its entire depreciation since trading started plus a bit more. Early speculators must have been a little disappointed, even though Bitpanda introduced a number of interesting incentives beyond the existing transaction discount features and the burning of tokens used for payment of fees which were part of the offer upon introduction of BEST. The Bitpanda BEST token has now advanced 100% from the March lows and there is a reason. Crypto exchanges are the future of investment and possibly finance. New generations of investors already believe that ‘banking’, ‘investment banking’, ‘investing in different asset classes including precious metals’ is transforming to the future players in this world. And those players will be the regulated Fintech exchanges like Bitpanda. With its recent new (minority) shareholder Speedinvest, Bitpanda has more opportunity to deliver new investment tokens based on traditional and speculative introductions. IPO’s become ICO’s in the new world of private banking and private equity investing. Operating in a totally trusted and compliance controlled environment with full support of the Austrian National Bank should give Bitpanda a head start in this new investment industry. This exchange has the characteristic of an institution that could grow parabolically. The approach appears very solid based on powerful, secure, state of the art systems. There is as yet little technical risk management possible due to limited data. Another 6 months should be enough to make our simple risk management tools work well for this young player. A decisive break of 0,10 may trigger more demand as interest in new investment and banking technologies grows. We may increase our total allocation once we see the number of Bitpanda account openings take another leap forward.

Courtesy chart of the Binance coin in USD which started life in 2017 at 0.05.


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