2020 Global forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 1 May
S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
Standard & Poor 500 | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2830 (2835) | ||||||
Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↑) | ↓ (↓) | |||
% Risk Weight |
52 (50) | 49 (47) | 72 (78) | |||
Allocation | 0% (0%) |
24 April: Technically we see little change in risk weight changing towards a more bullish picture. The US market still looks highly manipulated and other markets simply follow that path. For how long? Since the drop from 3400 mid February the mediumterm time frame has yet to produce a first bullish divergence. This has not happened and should best be expected given the 1200 point retracement into the third week of March. This market is in a downtrend that could last for a long time.The February peak also produced tghe first bearish divergence peak in the Monthly timeframe since the 2000 bubble. That is significant and must not be ignored. No Change to our outlook for a drop towards 1100-1200
Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
Brent | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
26.50 (21.80) | ||||||
Trend | ↑ (↓) | ↑ (↓) | ↑ (↑) | |||
% Risk Weight |
12 (12) | 16 (16) | 47 (20) | |||
Allocation | 50% (50%) |
24 April: The massacre in the oil market probably has created a major opportunity, but this market has not yet made the turn we expected some time ago. Our portfolio loss is covered through our precious metals holding and we will keep it. Oil will always be a critical and protected commodity.
The recent large fluctuations are not in the interest of any of the major producing countries and we have some gaps to fill. If the ST and MT turn down again in coming weeks with a developing bullish risk weight divergence in the Monthly time frame we look to go full in.
No Change for now
BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
BITCOIN BTC/USD | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8900 (7500) | ||||||
Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↑) | |||
% Risk Weight |
43 (40) | 56 (47) | 79 (76) | |||
Allocation | 0% (0%) |
24 April: BTC is experiencing a strong rally from recent lows with volatility picking up. Daily and Weekly look strong whilst Monthly could easily turn up after the April close. This will then likely push it to fill the gap at 9100 and maybe a bit higher. Due to the highly volatile and manipulated nature of this young market we still refrain from participation although it sometimes does look to present trading opportunity. No change, no allocation
Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
Bitpanda – BEST/EUR | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.0837 (0.0913) | ||||||
Trend | NA (NA) | ↓ (↑) | ↓ (↓) | |||
% Risk Weight |
NA (NA) | 88 (91) | 28 (66) | |||
Allocation | 100% (100%) |
BEST token live price 24/7
24 April: BEST is an investment in a crypto exchange that has the potential of becoming a major player for trading a variety of asset backed tokens, crypto currencies and precious metals in a fully regulated setting in Europe. The technical picture for Daily and Weekly risk weight is also in favor of staying with BEST. After a 10% drop last week the token recovered to just above 0.09 and can be considered a MT hold for now. This market is very young and even a minor short term divergence between Daily and Weekly could involve a rapid price move. It will take another 6 months before we see a first monthly indicator on our screen. If we need to single out a European regulated exchange that could cover a wider spectrum of financial services it would have to be Bitpanda. For a European citizen the likes of Binance, Kraken or Coinbase could not fill that space with the same confidence. We continue to monitor the Binance chart below as there is similarity in purpose. The development of BEST will be slower due to the strongly compliance driven nature of the Bitpanda business. We stay fully invested with a 5% of total portfolio allocation.
Courtesy chart of the Binance coin in USD which started life in 2017 at 0.05.
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