2020 Global forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 1 May

2020 Global forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 1 May

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
2830 (2835)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
52 (50) 49 (47) 72 (78)
Allocation 0% (0%)

As Warren Buffett throws in a few towels, that is a capitulation of major proportion. The Long Term Monthly trend clearly shows weight technically and it points down. That is real risk we must not mitigate. No Change.

24 April: Technically we see little change in risk weight changing towards a more bullish picture. The US market still looks highly manipulated and other markets simply follow that path. For how long? Since the drop from 3400 mid February the mediumterm time frame has yet to produce a first bullish divergence. This has not happened and should best be expected given the 1200 point retracement into the third week of March. This market is in a downtrend that could last for a long time.The February peak also produced tghe first bearish divergence peak in the Monthly timeframe since the 2000 bubble. That is significant and must not be ignored. No Change to our outlook for a drop towards 1100-1200

Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
26.50 (21.80)
Trend ↑ (↓) ↑ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
12 (12) 16 (16) 47 (20)
Allocation 50% (50%)

As Daily and Weekly timeframes show bullish divergence having turned up we will at least wait for the gap at 45 to be filled. That will happen, we just don’t know when. The monthly risk weight trend also turned up although it is just the beginning of the month, meaning there is risk for another attempt to tank the oil price. We stay with our 50% allocation expecting to suffer only a minor loss on this position.

24 April: The massacre in the oil market probably has created a major opportunity, but this market has not yet made the turn we expected some time ago. Our portfolio loss is covered through our precious metals holding and we will keep it. Oil will always be a critical and protected commodity.
The recent large fluctuations are not in the interest of any of the major producing countries and we have some gaps to fill. If the ST and MT turn down again in coming weeks with a developing bullish risk weight divergence in the Monthly time frame we look to go full in.
No Change for now

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

8900 (7500)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
43 (40) 56 (47) 79 (76)
Allocation 0% (0%)

Our Thursday message was for spec longs to close positions as BTC filled the 9073 gap. As we said it may move higher on second attempt and cannot exclude a brief push through 10k where strong resistance should appear. We still look to get the 2017 gap at 2800 filled. An unsuccessful attempt was made in 2019. We notice more acceptance to trading crypto and there probably is a strong future. But still too early and too risky in our opinion, hence staying uninvested, even though tempting sometimes.

24 April: BTC is experiencing a strong rally from recent lows with volatility picking up. Daily and Weekly look strong whilst Monthly could easily turn up after the April close. This will then likely push it to fill the gap at 9100 and maybe a bit higher. Due to the highly volatile and manipulated nature of this young market we still refrain from participation although it sometimes does look to present trading opportunity. No change, no allocation

Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0837 (0.0913)
Trend NA (NA) ↓ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
NA (NA) 88 (91) 28 (66)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7

Best had as relatively poor week but the technical picture remains positive. The young weekly trend indicator turned down whilstn the Daily is rapidly moving into the bullish divergence vis a vis its longer term Weekly equivalent. Furthermore BEST tokens have been used extensively to pay for strongly discounted fees offered to BEST token holders allowing Bitpanda to burn 22 million BEST tokens, making ownership more exclusive. Bit like stock buyback without the need to borrow. We are comfortable with this position that could benefit substantially from the positive vibes for many more future token listings. No Change.

24 April: BEST is an investment in a crypto exchange that has the potential of becoming a major player for trading a variety of asset backed tokens, crypto currencies and precious metals in a fully regulated setting in Europe. The technical picture for Daily and Weekly risk weight is also in favor of staying with BEST. After a 10% drop last week the token recovered to just above 0.09 and can be considered a MT hold for now. This market is very young and even a minor short term divergence between Daily and Weekly could involve a rapid price move. It will take another 6 months before we see a first monthly indicator on our screen. If we need to single out a European regulated exchange that could cover a wider spectrum of financial services it would have to be Bitpanda. For a European citizen the likes of Binance, Kraken or Coinbase could not fill that space with the same confidence. We continue to monitor the Binance chart below as there is similarity in purpose. The development of BEST will be slower due to the strongly compliance driven nature of the Bitpanda business. We stay fully invested with a 5% of total portfolio allocation.

Courtesy chart of the Binance coin in USD which started life in 2017 at 0.05.

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