2020 Global forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 15 May

2020 Global forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 15 May

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
2850 (2935)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
45 (48) 56 (54) 41 (60)
Allocation 0% (0%)


We have been stubbornly on the sidelines since Q3 2018. Have we missed opportunity? Sure. Do we think Amazon is a good bet? Probably. Yet the overall picture remains very shaky and highly inflated. Stock indices around the globe have been primary beneficiaries of MMT. They haven’t popped yet. Our technicals this week turned down again except for monthly which remains in a downward trend with ways to go potentially. High risk market, No Change.

8 May: Even in perma bull mainstream media voices of unbelief are now heard as to why equity markets around the globe show such resilience and where there is so much uncertainty. Even the FAAMNG stocks and co must be considered a higher risk in different economic scenario’s with a softening bias. Reading that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has added substantially to its already sizeable 17B prime US$ equity portolio of FAAMG is .We’ve been out of this market for a long time and only see a continued technical risk of potential price erosion.


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
32.75 (30.85)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
16 (16) 25 (20) 87 (86)
Allocation 50% (50%)


A bit of high risk Daily vs Med and Low risk weekly and monthly may put some short term pause or pressure on price the coming week. But that looks like temporarily slowing direction speed.
One of our poor timings, which we have kept for technical reasons and betting on the likely gap fill at $45 within a reasonable time frame. Technically Brent looks quite a solid uptrend whilst there are so many arguments that demand for oil is likely to remain weak and therefor price should stay low! So, we’re watching these technicals for an exit signal. That has yet to materialize. No change for the time being. Eventually, gaps in liquid and less manipulated markets are always filled.

8 May: Following from last week’s more bullish consideration the Mid and LT timeframes confirm this trend. Daily risk weight appears slightly overbought and could pause just a bit but direction is up. We are still expecting the $45 gap open from exactly one month ago to be filled before long. If that happens we review this asset again. For now we stay with our small allocation with a loss, expecting that loss to be minimized substantially. No Change

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
9500 (9750)
Trend ↑ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
44 (43) 70 (56) 70 (79)
Allocation 0% (0%)


The past two weeks saw a return to the 15-20% price swings. Technically little change however now with both Daily and Weekly showinbg potential bearish divergence if price peaks at or above 10k and then turns down again. With strong 2 year resistance at 10560, that divergence scenario is real risk for longs in spite of all time frames trending up at this moment. No Change for us.

8 May: Daily risk weight looks to attempt for bearish divergence if it turns down from around current level. Same possible divergence in the Weekly time frame if price reaches around 10500 and then turns down.
The scenario we showed last week unfolded almost exactly as expected with some decent but not overly wild fluctuations. Current simple overhead resistance is at 10600 connecting the Dec 17 and June 2019 highs of resp. 19890 and 13970 now at 10600. If the simple resistance line is broken, which in a controlled manipulated environment is quite possible to forcde speculators into buying at a top, BTC could easily explode briefly. Now, one of the reasons for current BTC strength is the announcement that the mining rewards will be cut in half for third time in 10 days time approx. In previous rounds this always meant a strong nominal price advance after (2012) and then shortly before the event (2016). This time the market is also early in anticipation it seems and history is no guarantee for repeat. We still believe that The 2800 gap will be filled before settling as either an undesired means of exchange or the best thing since sliced bread. We cannot believe that something that represents nothing created by nature can take the role of real money unless unilaterally defined as such and exchangeable to gold or silver for instance at a fixed price. We might be completely wrong, but so might be the people that expect $250,000 plus within 3 years and by whom millennials get so engaged. Yet $250,000 or much more is entirely possible if the US$ sinks to near zero in a hyperinflationary scenario. This is why we prefer to own gold and silver. No Change



Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0840 (0.0880)
Trend NA (NA) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
NA (NA) 80 (86) 30 (50)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


The risk weight gap between Daily (low) and Weekly (High) is a technical recipe for building a price base at current level. Bitpanda is in a slow proces of building its exchange and seems to benefit from demand in the various crypto currencies and their precious metals space backed by physical metal stored in Switzerland, unlike GLD. This remains a ‘hold’.

8 May: BEST paused the week ending May 1 and retraced some 8% with daily risk weight moving and confirming into bullish divergence vs weekly as we expected then. The technical picture of Bitpanda BEST tokens is not yet mature but already develops in a way that suggests more seasoned investor participants looking for longer term value in a new world of asset backed tokens which is still in its infancy. This investment is suggested as a fresh and potentially more solid and honest alternative to more traditional trading in different asset classes. The exchanges for asset backed tokens do not allow or aren’t attractive for the insider, High Frequency Trader, intruders making them more reliable for all types of investors. Blockchain driven exchanges as they grow and develop further with higher speed transaction flows are serious contenders for a New Normal in financial management over the next 5 years. That makes this investment a potentially very attractive long term hold.

Courtesy chart of the Binance coin in USD which started life in 2017 at 0.05.


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