2020 Global forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 8 May

2020 Global forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 8 May

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
2935 (2830)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
48 (52) 54 (49) 60 (72)
Allocation 0% (0%)

Even in perma bull mainstream media voices of unbelief are now heard as to why equity markets around the globe show such resilience and where there is so much uncertainty. Even the FAAMNG stocks and co must be considered a higher risk in different economic scenario’s with a softening bias. Reading that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has added substantially to its already sizeable 17B prime US$ equity portolio of FAAMG is .We’ve been out of this market for a long time and only see a continued technical risk of potential price erosion.

1 May: As Warren Buffett throws in a few towels, that is a capitulation of major proportion. The Long Term Monthly trend clearly shows weight technically and it points down. That is real risk we must not mitigate. No Change

Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
30.85 (26.50)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
16 (12) 20 (16) 86 (47)
Allocation 50% (50%)

Following from last week’s more bullish consideration the Mid and LT timeframes confirm this trend. Daily risk weight appears slightly overbought and could pause just a bit but direction is up. We are still expecting the $45 gap open from exactly one month ago to be filled before long. If that happens we review this asset again. For now we stay with our small allocation with a loss, expecting that loss to be minimized substantially. No Change.

1 May: As Daily and Weekly timeframes show bullish divergence having turned up we will at least wait for the gap at 45 to be filled. That will happen, we just don’t know when. The monthly risk weight trend also turned up although it is just the beginning of the month, meaning there is risk for another attempt to tank the oil price. We stay with our 50% allocation expecting to suffer only a minor loss on this position

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

9750 (8900)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
43 (43) 56 (56) 79 (79)
Allocation 0% (0%)

Daily risk weight looks to attempt for bearish divergence if it turns down from around current level. Same possible divergence in the Weekly time frame if price reaches around 10500 and then turns down.
The scenario we showed last week unfolded almost exactly as expected with some decent but not overly wild fluctuations. Current simple overhead resistance is at 10600 connecting the Dec 17 and June 2019 highs of resp. 19890 and 13970 now at 10600. If the simple resistance line is broken, which in a controlled manipulated environment is quite possible to forcde speculators into buying at a top, BTC could easily explode briefly. Now, one of the reasons for current BTC strength is the announcement that the mining rewards will be cut in half for third time in 10 days time approx. In previous rounds this always meant a strong nominal price advance after (2012) and then shortly before the event (2016). This time the market is also early in anticipation it seems and history is no guarantee for repeat. We still believe that The 2800 gap will be filled before settling as either an undesired means of exchange or the best thing since sliced bread. We cannot believe that something that represents nothing created by nature can take the role of real money unless unilaterally defined as such and exchangeable to gold or silver for instance at a fixed price. We might be completely wrong, but so might be the people that expect $250,000 plus within 3 years and by whom millennials get so engaged. Yet $250,000 or much more is entirely possible if the US$ sinks to near zero in a hyperinflationary scenario. This is why we prefer to own gold and silver. No Change.

1 May: Our Thursday message was for spec longs to close positions as BTC filled the 9073 gap. As we said it may move higher on second attempt and cannot exclude a brief push through 10k where strong resistance should appear. We still look to get the 2017 gap at 2800 filled. An unsuccessful attempt was made in 2019. We notice more acceptance to trading crypto and there probably is a strong future. But still too early and too risky in our opinion, hence staying uninvested, even though tempting sometimes

Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0880 (0.0837)
Trend NA (NA) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
NA (NA) 86 (88) 50 (28)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7

BEST paused the week ending May 1 and retraced some 8% with daily risk weight moving and confirming into bullish divergence vs weekly as we expected then. The technical picture of Bitpanda BEST tokens is not yet mature but already develops in a way that suggests more seasoned investor participants looking for longer term value in a new world of asset backed tokens which is still in its infancy. This investment is suggested as a fresh and potentially more solid and honest alternative to more traditional trading in different asset classes. The exchanges for asset backed tokens do not allow or aren’t attractive for the insider, High Frequency Trader, intruders making them more reliable for all types of investors. Blockchain driven exchanges as they grow and develop further with higher speed transaction flows are serious contenders for a New Normal in financial management over the next 5 years. That makes this investment a potentially very attractive long term hold.

1 May: Best had a relatively poor week but the technical picture remains positive. The young weekly trend indicator turned down whilst the Daily is rapidly moving into the bullish divergence vis a vis its longer term Weekly equivalent. Furthermore BEST tokens have been used extensively to pay for strongly discounted fees offered to BEST token holders allowing Bitpanda to burn 22 million BEST tokens, making ownership more exclusive. Bit like stock buyback without the need to borrow. We are comfortable with this position that could benefit substantially from the positive vibes for many more future token listings. No Change.

Courtesy chart of the Binance coin in USD which started life in 2017 at 0.05.

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