GOLD FORECAST 2020 – SILVER – GOLD/SILVER RATIO 27 Febr
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M)
Medium Term Weekly (MT-W)
Short Term Daily (ST-D)
and Hourly (not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
Gold/USD | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1645 (1583) | ||||||
Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↑) | ↓ (↑) | |||
% Risk Weight |
88 (90) | 85 (80) | 67 (60) | |||
Allocation | 100% (100%) |
Gold/USD live price
Last week: If we observe Gold/USD from the 16 Aug 2018 low to-date the advance is probably textbook Elliot wave. Generally very few Elliott Wave masters get it right, yet using a preferred wave count together with the best next alternative can be very helpful if that count could confirm a possible end of advance or correction and thus may or may not confirm our risk analysis. As risk weight in this market is becoming high and not finished because we should now first expect bearish risk weight to price divergence in the MTR or Long term time frames, let’s look at a possible Elliott wave count. Doing this we do not look at third party Elliott wave counts as they differ quite a bit if publicly accessible and we do not subscribe to any of the established firms. Our wave count would now put either near or at the start of a 5 of 1 of 5 or at or near the the start of 5 of 1 of 3. Either way this market has not reached a long term top according to our possible EW counts. Because risk weight advance has not yet finished in any of our time frames, price could still surprise on the upside and with a 20% cushion Our Elliott wave count confirms our risk weight approach to remaining fully invested
Weekly Silver Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
Silver/USD | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
17.75 (17.71) | ||||||
Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↓) | ↓ (↑) | |||
% Risk Weight |
66 (66) | 60 (56) | 40 (27) | |||
Allocation | 100% (100%) |
Silver/USD live price
Last week: Silver of course offers a different Elliottt wave count yet with a similar confirmation principle in that the present wave count and best alternative are at a much earlier stage of the Elliott wave Long and Intermediate degrees. This would nicely fit our risk analysis where risk weight is lowe than gold. Hence, silver should be regarded and closely monitored as a key asset in any larger portfolio distribution. No Change
Weekly Gold/Silver Ratio Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
GOLD/SILVER Ratio | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
92.55 (88.49) | ||||||
Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↓) | |||
% Risk Weight |
57 (52) | 85 (74) | 85 (78) | |||
Allocation | 50/50 AU/AG (50/50 AU/AG) |
Gold/Silver Ratio live price
Our comments for Gold and Silver continue to extend to the ratio. As this market currently goes against our trend call and expectation we see NO risk weight level that gives reason to change our mind and at the same time we cannot get a clear signal that a top is imminent. The picture however in the LT Monthly time frame is weak, even with an uptrend present right now. If we do an Elliott wave count, the ratio appears to be making a double ABC upward correction in a minuette type degree since the Sept 2019 low. This gives comfort to remaining fully invested in Silver with slight underweight of the yellow metal
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