2020 Gold forecast, Silver, Ratio 14-21 Febr

GOLD FORECAST 2020 – SILVER – GOLD/SILVER RATIO 14-21 Febr


Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M)
Medium Term Weekly (MT-W)
Short Term Daily (ST-D)
and Hourly (not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)


Gold/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
1583 (1569)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
90 (88) 80 (77) 60 (35)
Allocation 100% (100%)

Gold/USD live price


If we observe Gold/USD from the 16 Aug 2018 low to-date the advance is probably textbook Elliot wave. Generally very few Elliott Wave masters get it right, yet using a preferred wave count together with the best next alternative can be very helpful if that count could confirm a possible end of advance or correction and thus may or may not confirm our risk analysis. As risk weight in this market is becoming high and not finished because we should now first expect bearish risk weight to price divergence in the MTR or Long term time frames, let’s look at a possible Elliott wave count. Doing this we do not look at third party Elliott wave counts as they differ quite a bit if publicly accessible and we do not subscribe to any of the established firms. Our wave count would now put either near or at the start of a 5 of 1 of 5 or at or near the the start of 5 of 1 of 3. Either way this market has not reached a long term top according to our possible EW counts. Because risk weight advance has not yet finished in any of our time frames, price could still surprise on the upside and with a 20% cushion Our Elliott wave count confirms our risk weight approach to remaining fully invested.

Last week: Corona or some other median trader emotion feel took Gold, and other commodity assets, down just over 3% to 1547 before recovering to 1569 at the end of the trading week. The Daily risk weight dropped into a bullish divergence versus Weekly and Monthly with all time frames in a fairly narrow risk weight uptrend. Gold appears to be developing a triangle pause between 1600 and 1540 with apex at the end of Febr – early March. We stay fully allocated


Weekly Silver Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Silver/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
17.71 (17.67)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
66 (66) 56 (61) 27 (31)
Allocation 100% (100%)

Silver/USD live price


Silver of course offers a different Elliottt wave count yet with a similar confirmation principle in that the present wave count and best alternative are at a much earlier stage of the Elliott wave Long and Intermediate degrees. This would nicely fit our risk analysis where risk weight is lowe than gold. Hence, silver should be regarded and closely monitored as a key asset in any larger portfolio distribution. No Change.

Last week: Silver suffered a little more than gold but holds the same risk image as Gold except the weekly mid term risk weight is in a narrow downtrend. The Gold/Silver ratio is mixed and is not indicative of an imminent explosion of Silver upwards. We stay with our full allocation


Weekly Gold/Silver Ratio Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

GOLD/SILVER Ratio LT-M MT-W ST-D
88.49 (87.93)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
52 (51) 74 (70) 78 (57)
Allocation 50/50 AU/AG (50/50 AU/AG)

Gold/Silver Ratio live price


Our comments for Gold and Silver continue to extend to the ratio. As this market currently goes against our trend call and expectation we see NO risk weight level that gives reason to change our mind and at the same time we cannot get a clear signal that a top is imminent. The picture however in the LT Monthly time frame is weak, even with an uptrend present right now. If we do an Elliott wave count, the ratio appears to be making a double ABC upward correction in a minuette type degree since the Sept 2019 low. This gives comfort to remaining fully invested in Silver with slight underweight of the yellow metal.

Last week: The upward trend in the ratio may not yet have finished. The picture is that of the USD Index and fighting the inevitable outcome of substantial weakness. We need patience. With Monthly at mid range neutral level in an uptrend lags the shorter term Weekly that now looks to develop bearish risk/price divergence in its own timeframe. We remain evenly to slight overweight silver positioned between Gold and Silver with full allocation


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