2020 GOLD FORECAST + SILVER + GOLD/SILVER RATIO – 17-25 Jan
Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M)
Medium Term Weekly (MT-W)
Short Term Daily (ST-D)
and Hourly (not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)
| Gold/USD | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1556 (1562) | ||||||
| Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↑) | ↓ (↓) | |||
| % Risk Weight |
83 (83) | 77 (72) | 44 (65) | |||
| Allocation | 100% (100%) | |||||
Gold/USD live price
For 2 weeks divergence is developing between Daily and Weekly risk weight. The divergence value (77-44=33) is not large enough to justify a fresh long position at this moment, but it does justify staying with the existing 100% long position. No Change.
Last week: Potential bearish divergence Gold risk weight to price is potentially in the making in the Medium Term timeframe. The trend however is still up. Daily has shown bearish divergence and continued in a downtrend. On several occasions the past year we have seen bearish divergence in the Daily time frame. Every time the Longer term time frames remained in uptrends with a big price cushion since the long Gold position was established. Today the market is becoming more vulnerable, potentially, with higher risk weight in Weekly and Monthly but the picture remains the same. The uptrend must have a chance to develop further which includes the Quarterly risk weight, which is high but still up. The Jan 7 daily close at 1595 indicates a potential for the next Gold price objective of 1800.
The Jan 8 reversal day close was not below the previous day’s low, so, even though tempting to realize a profit, we remain fully invested at this point.
Weekly Silver Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
| Silver/USD | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.00 (18.06) | ||||||
| Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↓) | |||
| % Risk Weight |
63 (64) | 67 (59) | 56 (82) | |||
| Allocation | 100% (100%) | |||||
Silver/USD live price
The silver price action still favours a fully invested position with strong support from the Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly risk weight charts. No Change.
Last week: Silver has held its solid uptrend with bearish risk weight to price evident in the Daily time frame. With the 3 long term time frames in uptrend and well below high risk weight levels we are confident that $21 is still in sight. No Change.
Weekly Gold/Silver Ratio Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
| GOLD/SILVER Ratio | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86.16 (86.05) | ||||||
| Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↓) | ↓ (↑) | |||
| % Risk Weight |
44 (41) | 58 (57) | 76 (74) | |||
| Allocation | 50/50 AU/AG (50/50 AU/AG) | |||||
Gold/Silver Ratio live price
The Silver ratio this week looks a little bit suspicious at first glance as the risk weight trend turned up in Weekly time frame. With Daily risk weight trend turning down at higher risk level we need to see confirmation of a trend change first. At current trend levels, with both Monthly and Weekly in neutral risk positions there is no clear evidence whatsoever that the Ratio is about to turn up for a sustained move. Thus we choose to stay confidently bearish on the Gold/Silver ratio. No Change.
Last week: Interim Monthly has turned up, but this is interim and non-conclusive. With Daily risk weight sharply up this week and weekly in down trend we stay with a fully allocated slightly overweight silver position. No Change
Forex Blog
Global Blog
Gold Silver Blog