2020 GOLD SILVER Forecast – Jan 24-31


Gold Price Forecast relative to
Long Term Monthly (LT-M)
Medium Term Weekly (MT-W)
Short Term Daily (ST-D)
and Hourly (not shown) data
(Previous week in brackets)

1571 (1556)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
84 (83) 72 (77) 40 (44)
Allocation 100% (100%)

Gold/USD live price

Gold’s Weekly trend has turned down this week whilst price was up 1% and Weekly is now confirming bearish divergence in its own time frame. This makes the long position technically vulnerable and subject to more serious review. As the Daily time frame has NOT shown bearish divergence in its own time frame and has stretched itself down and away from the weekly trend, whilst the LT is narrowly up, we must consider a strong possibility of further advance near term. As the cushion against entry is large we hold the position unchanged.

Last week: For 2 weeks divergence is developing between Daily and Weekly risk weight. The divergence value (77-44=33) is not large enough to justify a fresh long position at this moment, but it does justify staying with the existing 100% long position. No Change.

Weekly Silver Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

18.07 (18.00)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
64 (63) 66 (67) 20 (56)
Allocation 100% (100%)

Silver/USD live price

The week ended slightly up and a bit weaker than expected. Similar to Gold the Weekly trend turned down whilst the Daily has already a bullish divergence uptrend last week. The Weekly technical picture is asking for a forceful press up, but still appears to be holding off the expected move towards the 21.00 level. The technical picture is asking for patience and thus we hold full allocation.

Last week: The silver price action still favours a fully invested position with strong support from the Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly risk weight charts. No Change.

Weekly Gold/Silver Ratio Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

86.51 (86.16)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
45 (41) 61 (57) 78 (74)
Allocation 50/50 AU/AG (50/50 AU/AG)

Gold/Silver Ratio live price

The Gold/Silver ratio is in No Man’s land. As there is a cushion to protect against loss and a massive margin versus historic equilibrium, there is no reason lighten up. This relationship of course mirrors that of Silver/USD and technically breaths patience. Right now we cannot not argue against a possible advance direction 90 and without any technical evidence between time frames and move this ratio in favour of gold, we stay with our weight on Silver. No Change.

Last week: The Silver ratio this week looks a little bit suspicious at first glance as the risk weight trend turned up in Weekly time frame. With Daily risk weight trend turning down at higher risk level we need to see confirmation of a trend change first. At current trend levels, with both Monthly and Weekly in neutral risk positions there is no clear evidence whatsoever that the Ratio is about to turn up for a sustained move. Thus we choose to stay confidently bearish on the Gold/Silver ratio. No Change

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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, GOLD / US DOLLAR FORECAST & PREDICTIONS.

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