Bitcoin is bid, closing the week at 61k | 13 March


BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD Monthly Weekly Daily
61,150 (48,900)
↑ 25%
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
85 (82) 84 (85) 95 (36)
Allocation Limit(0%) Invested 0% (0%)



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13 March 2021 close: Bitcoin is the darling of the crypto space adding another 25% as if this is business as usual. Various other crypto tokens also managed >50% advances of which Chiliz is a clear winner at 450%. These moves are nothing short of amazing and there is no fundamental justification for this type of volatility other than there being a simple reason; massive speculation by the masses fuelled by influencer whales. We can see the incredible benefits that many Fintech companies can deliver to the 'new economy' which include huge investments into promising startups that generate employment for ever more IT engineers. Wealth preservation can only be delivered with manageable risk. This madness of crowds is known to end badly. Short term trading can be extremely beneficial but dollar signs are also know to hurt many, especially smaller investors. Interesting though that both Medium and Long term Bitcoin/USD risk weight are still high risk but down from the previous week even after this 25% advance. Highly unusual too, and suspect. As certain crypto assets become limitless and leveraged investment is possible up to 50:1 through different brokers etc, anything can happen. Without proper regulation it will result in financial failure for some or many. Many recent BTC investors however will be able to beat the next broad inflation cycle which could prevent the world economy from a disaster scenario unfolding. We shall continue follow this with great interest, whilst limiting our participation to BEST and smaller participation in (altcoins) tokens with business potential.

6 March 2021 close: Following a 43,000 reaction low last Sunday, Bitcoin managed to find a rapid new lease of life last week ending Saturday 6 March at 49,000 rallying the rest of the weekend above 51,000. Where weekly moves of $5000 dollars were commonplace, this now also applies to daily moves. Many seasoned financial commentators and asset managers find this highly volatile asset class very suspicious. The current debate does focus on a bullish narrative that cannot really be denied becauze no one really knows. But bullish against what? Clearly against the US dollar for most speculators and due to the limited supply of 21 million Bitcoins, assuming that turns out to be the true unbreakable number. Technically BTC is bullish as short term risk weight positively diverges against the Medium term timescale. The whole atmosphere around Bitcoin also benefits from an increasing number of very large actors. This can only push prices up in the short run. We remain very cautious and would rather lean towards Ethereum from a technical point of view as the ETH/BTC ratio has a more bullish tone. We feel that ETH has a better change of 10x than BTC. See our crypto chart page.


Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda - BEST/EUR Monthly Weekly Daily
0.7945 (0.7050)
↑ 12.5%
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
85 (83) 79 (77) 90 (62)
Allocation Limit(30%) Invested 100% (100%)

BEST token live price



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Bitpanda BEST analysis

13 March 2021: The 12% Rise of BEST this week, was partly due to a general advance of the crypto space towards the end of the week, but the most important reaction came on March 9 as Bitpanda announced an April 2021 launch of 24/7 zero commission fractional stock trading and ETF's on some of the most popular equities and a chance to win a TESLA model 3. BEST owners will benefit again. Technical analysis is still very much for short term play use, whilst volumes are not great yet. This will be a matter of time as this rapidly expanding European exchange continues to spread its wings and develop more products and launch more tokens and other tradeable markets. We are holding on to our core portfolio with a strategy to re-allocate average monthly transaction rewards of 0.8 to 0.9% percent into smaller crypto assets and altcoins with a strong underlying business concept. This is a very volatile market, but from a wealth management and risk perspective we prefer a more subtle approach with much smaller pieces of the crypto cake. In addition to Gold, Silver, Platinum and BEST, as core holdings, we currently also own and trade some NEM, Stellar, Polkadot, Ethereum and Pantos. Some other very interesting crypto names like Avalanche, Cardano and Chiliz have made such spectecular moves already in 2020 and Q1 2021 that we either missed that fast moving train or felt it became too speculative, even for a very small allocation. Bitpanda's move into 24/7 fractional stock trading from just a few Euro's will open a huge untapped market of mom and pop investors that can generate strong grket growth.

06 March 2021: We remain committed to BEST which performed a little better this week ending on near the highs at €0,7050. This token is still immature with little trading volume. BEST is also limited as US and Canadian citizens are not allowed to open an account. Stiff tax and AML regulation on both sides of the Atlantic are the sole reason for that, since Bitpanda is a fully regulated exchange. Bitpanda has started to roll out its VISA card at the end of February and this Debit card allows contact free shopping worldwide up to €10,000 Euro per day using any preferred listed wallet, like Ethereum, Bitcoin, Doge, Euro and many more. This feature is expected to develop more loyalty to trading a slowly but steadily increasing number of tokens on the Bitpanda exchange. No Change.
Besides our long term BEST holding we own a small quantity of other tokens including NEM, Ethereum, Polkadot, Pantos and Stellar since a few months. This is learn understand how these markets function. Volatility is as high as Bitcoin but several tokens do trade against the general crypto trend with some very speculative and equially spectecular moves like Chiliz.
Market Cap of all Crypto's has increased by 50% from OneTrillion to OnepointFiveTrillion in just two months. This is a trend that attracts many new small and large investors into the space.
Something to get used to and with great care for risk.

S&P, Stock Indices, Equities, High Risk, No Limits


S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 Monthly Weekly Daily
3944 (3841)
↑ 2.5%
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
96 (95) 75 (78) 82 (40)
Max Allocation 20% (20%) Invested 0% (0%)


12 March 2021 close: We continue stay away from the equity market which continues to show a high risk picture even though Monthly and Weekly risk weight have turned down at this week's close. That in itself, especially weekly at 75% risk weight suggests another significant advance can materialize or not! Equities will have run their course in this primary major uptrend before many of the more promising crypto's do because many of these startup crypto's show more long term potential. 2021 will be a year where just about anything will be tokenized and connected allowing low to zero commission trading at high speed and very secure. This will lead to another year of significant growth in crypto irrespective of the direction of the major crypto currencies.

5 March 2021 close: The S&P index closed slightly lower on 3% recovery after falling to 3722 on Thursday. High interim risk weight has become even more evident in the monthly timescale as the new month started. S&P remains a no go area from a pure risk point of view.


Brent Crude oil Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous in brackets)

Brent Monthly Weekly Daily
69.23 (64.40)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
86 (85) 91 (84) 70 (45)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 0% (0%)


12 March 20212 close: Price action has gone way beyond our expectation and seems to confirm a very strong economic recovery as the world tries to start afresh after one year of lockdowns. Brent ias running into heavy resistance around the 70 handle combined with massive bearish risk weight to price divergence in the medium term time scale. This just isn't worth the risk especially without any fundamental evidence that fossil fuels will remain a primary source of energy.

5 March 2021 close: Brent is rapidly developing potential bearish divergence in all timescales. Daily risk shot up over 10% last week from an early week downtrend. Uncertainty about near term requirement and storage of Crude oil makes this asset highly speculative and the speed and size of the up and down moves confirms that. We continue stand down on this market.

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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - OIL - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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