Bitcoin takes the lead again


BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD Monthly Weekly Daily
54,962 (47,658)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
65 (63) 75 (73) 90 (60)
Allocation Limit(0%) Invested 0% (0%)



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09 October close: The Bitcoin narrative in alternative media is extremely bullish and we cannot deny that as a result of the current bullish sentiment across the crypto space the trend is technically positive for the BTC digital currency. The problem is that the current trend still appears as a <B> corrective wave that can even make an irregular top (well) above 64,900. If that happens we would expect the crypto market to follow this lead or even overtake this lead. Other currencies in the peer group are also showing strength. Our focus would be more on the larger native development tokens rather than pure crypto currencies simply because risk remains high. Clearly tghe financial industry leaders like Banks and other government supported entities are starting to embrace Bitcoin as a key asset class. We still cannot figure out its wider economic use other than a very small percentage allocation as an unknown insurance vehicle and otherwise as a specualtive entertainment asset. Clearly is has made quite a few million people happy gamblers again over the past few years.

02 October close: Bitoin rallied strongly into the weekend from the early week lows and at the same time piushing risk weight higher. Technically this move doesn't look finished. Although many peer currencies have performed well following the BTC lead, the rally is clearly an attempt to build trust in making new highs. On the long term log scale charts price is just sitting in the middle of a range and must still be considered high risk unless the May high is taken out. That would require another 30% up from the current BTC level and a tall order. Given that sports betting annually has a 1.7 Trillion! footing, the established blockchain and general crypto industry will attract a much larger interest keeping this market very much alive. Yet it does not tell anything about price performance, although some crypto's will benefit from guaranteed many more quantum leaps in technology applications. Market prediction range from anywhere higher than the current level to a very bold 1 million dollar value for Bitcoin. The narrative for any of these predictions cannot easily be played down given past performance, but pure speculative tulip bulb type markets should be approached with care and only with funds that can be fully drowned and without really harming the original wealth position.

BTC/USD interim Quarterly risk chart 02/10


Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda - BEST/EUR Monthly Weekly Daily
0.7750 (0.7450)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
28 (28) 45 (38) 80 (65)
Allocation Limit(variable) Invested 100% (100%)

BEST token live price



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Bitpanda BEST analysis

08 October 2021 close: Bitpanda's Ecosystem Token BEST still appears to still suffer from a long position that needs unwinding. Because this is typically controlled by the Bitpanda broker the trading platform gives little clue as to where the real price weighing is centered. We briefly reached the 0.80 handle but the market has since fallen back to 0.78 on very little volume. liquidity is an issue until account holders find more trust in this native token. We have been adding a little recently at the 0.71 level as there was still near zero movement whilst the broader market advanced at greater speed. BEST has underperformed by about 50% and looking at the technicals BEST has every chance of catching up even if the broader market stalls. We expect this token to appreciate fairly swiftly again once the interest returns. It doesn't take much demand from 3 million users to unwind any of the existing overhang which we cannot quantify, whilst Bitpanda, as the central token banker and primary market maker, cannot be seen to front run this market. Whilst interest rates remain low and inflation increases with assistance from astronomic gas prices, the wider benefits of owning BEST should ultimate take this token to new highs (> 2.60). Without the recent larger unwinding of positions the 'real' level should be closer to €1.25 per BEST token, not including any positive growth development effects of the company. We remain very patient hodlers.

01 October 2021 close: Our BEST allocation was initiated in 2019 and has thusfar outperformed Bitcoin during the period middle of 2019 to date. This allocation, as discussed before, is a calculated risk position based on the attractive terms offered by a fast growing real business that now starts to develop more critical mass with 3million+ accounts. Whilst the Bitpanda broker still rules pricing they seem to have a very responsible approach to bid - offer pricing whilst having to deal with certain irratic volume trades from larger participants. BEST this week, for the first time in many months, has started to come away from recent depths but hasn't yet made the kick start catch up rally that we expect to happen with or without a broader crypto market rally. A quick move above 1 Euro is now more likely. The European Bitpanda exchange is probably the most secure regulated entity in the crypto space as we believe that regulated more centralized use of crypto trading is the direction that authorities can best live with. Authorities are greatly concerned with the decentralized nature of certain exchanges and crypto products with still uncontrollable AML risk as well as general retail risk management concerns. We do not necessarily endorse how authorities behave, but it is the direction we think is the safest to follow. Many crypto's, away from the primary currencies like BTC, ETH and LTC look to potentially very strong. BEST is just one of them and also offers a unique incentive with lower cost trading and monthly rewards allowing to build a larger diversified porfolio. Bitpanda has voiced in various comments this year that the strategy is to build mass market API's allowing traditional financial service companies, like banks, to offer local customers all the benefits from a large range of new application without having to go it alone based on too little knowledge and experience. We are very much aware that a complete crypto crash is also possible before these new asset classes find a natural financial equilibrium. No Change.

S&P, Stock Indices, Equities, High Risk, No Limits


S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 Monthly Weekly Daily
4390 (4360)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
90 (95) 61 (65) 50 (25)
Max Allocation 20% (20%) Invested 0% (0%)


08 October 2021 close: The S&P equities index still remains in a braoder downtrend since the recent 4550 peak. With kicking the monetary can down the road anything can happen in either direction as we know. Equities remain a high risk play also given the many world economic problems that grossly underestimated in our opinion, hence a large risk hedge with precious metals (40%), a solid ITO in place (45%) and about 15% cash in our portfolio. No Change to our longer term S&P outlook.

01 October 2021 close: Broad equity markets as they very much aligh with the S&P index remain high risk. If long term risk decides it is time to take on the new direction for a longer period there will probably be a non-proportional shakeout. We are still not willing to assume that great a risk if lower short term risk, as is the case today, has proven to be a 'Buy The Dip' event during the past 3 years.

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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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