Bitcoin new high with mixed feelings


BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD Monthly Weekly Daily
64,400 (61,539)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
69 (69) 86 (87) 56 (60)
Allocation Limit(0%) Invested 0% (0%)



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13 November close: Bitcoin started last week on a high note taking out the 67k October high with a fresh $69,000 print on Wednesday. The downturn that same day showed bearish divergence on all our tools making an immediate favourable forecast impossible. If BTC ends this quarter above the previous March high close of $58,800 and then turns down at the quarterly close in March or June 2022, we may also see a bearish quarterly signal on the Quarterly Risk chart which makes Bitcoin look extremely vulnerable medium term and possibly long term. We now expect several other crypto's to ourperform Bitcoin purely on lower token price considerations for a rapidly increasing number of day to day smaller investors. Many, not all, of the highflyers have no real economic case for an above average performance either. A speculative case yes. We have seen many 31/12/2021 Bitcoin price forecasts during the year ranging from a doulbing to $60k to $2 million during the year and just a tiny minority of analysts looking for a (much) lower 2021 closing. From a pure risk perspective we are clearly in that minority space. Just maybe 2021 will be a different year from what we've seen the past decade and we can still see the current price action being part of a potential irregular (Elliott) ABC correction. The chance of getting that wrong is actually getting smaller given the technical analysis picture offered by several relative strenght type tools such as Stochastic, MACD and RSI. We too love crypto as it provides much innovative excitement, but we cannot lose sight of the many risks, hence a different approach to where we rather seek participation in the regulated market that also offers indirect and even tangible benefit from owning crypto (Bitpanda's BEST is one example) or owning COINBASE, in which we took a very small position when it dipped during the crypto crash in May. Coinbase offers an indirect participation in the crypto space with a fairly high Beta correlation. Other than that only positions that can be entirely lost without ever losing more than 5% of total are acceptable.

6 November close: The Crypto market certainly keeps attention high. Ethereum and Solana were star performers whilst BEST finally recovered a bit against the majors last week. Our Saturday weekly cut off point was already followed by a strong entry into the new week. The highly volatile crypto market as a whole is getting very close to the $3 Trillion market cap level and it is a matter of time for that level to be taken. Technical Risk however remains high for the top large cap performers. As soon as risk weight gets towards the 98-100 % risk range in shorter term time intervals these assets can suddenly dive without warning. This is the result of liquidity being controlled by industry and dedicated to certain token whales. The biggest Bitcoin risk right now is developing bearish divergence in the Monthly time frame. Weekly risk weight already has developed this pattern across all technical tool. Long positions without any other purpose than making a large trading profit therefor have become too speculative for simple wealth preservation technical fundamentalists like ourselves.


Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis | 1 Nov

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda - BEST/EUR Monthly Weekly Daily
1.0175 (1.0750)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
30 (29) 74 (72) 62 (88)
Allocation Limit(variable) Invested 100% (100%)

BEST token live price



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Bitpanda BEST analysis

13 Nov 2021 close: Our BEST holding was also shaky after a good start on the MOnth but held its own with a similar loss as the majors coming into Sunday 14 November. As Bitpanda's BEST tokens offer an strong incentive with their monthly rewards, which in our case vary between 0.9% and 1% every month, we can simply ignore large medium and short term price fluctuations or even a major drop until the entire market settles into a state of economic maturity. No Change.

06 Nov 2021 close: BEST started the week in line with the crypto market as a whole but then found fresh local European demand on Wednesday which took the Bitpanda native token up by 15% before settling around €1.0750. We took the opportunity to release the October monthly reward into fiat with a view to reinvest in an altcoin of some sort. As all major crypto assets have continued very strong into the new week, we may well take a punt in one or two Bitcoin alternatives if they reach a technical condition that justifies the risk. Such risk would not be more than 1 or 2 percent of total portfolio.
Bitpanda's BEST token does not show the same technical high risk weight levels as other very strong crypto performers do coming into the new week, including Bitcoin which already today almost reached its all time high of $66,999. As we also trade 100% physically backed precious metals through the Bitpanda exchange, BEST is still the fundamental choice of preference due to the monthly reward, 20% lower trading commissions if using BEST tokens for that purpose, and the regulated status of this Austrian crypto industry leader. BEST probably would perform better with added liquidity from non European countries but that Europe only crypto, stocks and metals exchange limitation however is unlikely to be changed anytime soon due to the international regulatory requirements. Strong HOLD on the core BEST position.

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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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