Strong Bitcoin rally not widely supported | 31 July 2021
BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)|
|55 (55)||37 (20)||85 (94)|
|Allocation Limit(0%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
08 August close: The major crypto's were lifted substantially after August 4. Tye many logical reasons are widespread on the web and social media, yet the sheer size of the move was a surprise given that the short to medium bearish divergence was working well into mid week. Again not all crypto's tokens shared the same enthusiasm but everything was up to some degree or more.
Although in this market anything is possible if more institutional funds enter, Risk weight still points down at current levels especially as short and medium term scales are moving into potential bearish divergence. Besides our currently weaker BEST holding from early adoption in 2019, we remain on the sidelines.
31 July close: In the two week since our last holiday update Bitcoin has covered the full price range consolidation that started on May 19. The boundaries of at range are $29,000 and $42,000. short term bearish Divergence gap between Daily (overbought) and Weekly (oversold) is 75%. This is too large for comfort whilst monthly is still at a mid range risk level and down. Most peer currencies have not made the same kind of rapid price recovery indicating a higher risk development for BTC. Some major crypto's did receover more than others as a few BTC related events hit the media during the period and they were largely positive, one being the Musk, Dorsey & Wood conference on July 21 which also marked the most recent BTC bottom. We would prefer to avoid any trading risk and these still unsettled levels and no change to our analysis that a higher risk exists for a much more substantial correction over time.
Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Bitpanda - BEST/EUR||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)||↑ (↑)|
|32 (42)||8 (2)||85 (63)|
|Allocation Limit(variable)||Invested||100% (100%)|
BEST token live price
View full width crypto charts for tablet and larger
Bitpanda BEST analysis
09 August 2021: Bitpanda has been the weakest performer in the larger crypto arena of late as judged by the performance of their own native tokens, BEST and PANTOS. As so much development is going on in their space it is hard to judge. Bitpanda continues to increase the number of popular crypto's which matures its status as a major exchange. They remain very positive and do not, understandably, discuss the price trends of their native tokens. We can only observe and await more positive development news sometime in the next quarter. Coinbase's COIN could also serve as a hedge against BEST.
It is possible that one or two larger VIP participants have continued to take profit on initial holdings, even at the currently more attractive and much lower price level. This seems more lilely as price pressure was maintained all during the recent Bitcoin rally from 34k to 44k. BEST dipped as low as 50 Euro cents but then stabelised above 60 Euro cents. Risk of another major downturn applies to all crypto tokens as so many of them appear to have such massive speculative response. No Change to our overall strategy.
31 July 2021: BEST recovered just a little over 20% from the recent 20 July €0,50 cents low as most crypto's recorded a monthly low around that date. Right now BEST follow a similar pattern as most other crypto's, be it altcoins or native tokens. Our strategy however does not change. Earning a monthly return and cashing that in against fiat and eventually other tokens on our watchlist whilst Bitpanda continues to build a strong alternative exchange to fully non custodian crypto wallets and including physical precious metals and stocks. The strategy, since the first limited investment, has already created a zero risk remaining position.
In Cryto, anything seems possible and these markets may behave contrary to traditional technical analysis risk. Bitcoin may again lead the way to new explosive highs and if that happens it will drag everything else along at different speeds. If however the market behaves more like our recent forecast that a major lower low must first develop, we will likely see many new opportunities arise away from Bitcoin. We are in the camp where doubt about the future of crypto currency is leading and that has much to do with the adopted Bitcoin narratives in relation to fiat currency inflation and risk whilst that same narrative also compares risk with dollar value as in being able to make small and large purchases with Bitcoin. We do not believe that Bitcoin or Ethereum has any chance of ever becoming a mainstream currency. That is very different from being able to use crypto holdings for making any kind of credit card payment in real time. That exists already via several regulated exchanges like Bitpanda or a smart banking facility like Revolut.
S&P, Stock Indices, Equities, High Risk, No Limits
S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
|Standard & Poor 500||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↑ (↓)||↑ (↓)||↑ (↓)|
|99 (98)||95 (91)||95 (87)|
|Max Allocation 20% (20%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
06 August 2021 close: Whilst ever more cheap money is pumped into the economy, and again largely flowing into the very very profitable buy back trade, these markets have become too obscure for non insiders. Risk therefore remains extremely. Yes, there is a trend and the trend is your friend, but this goes way beyond textbook analysis whilst technical conditions remain exstremely high risk. Fortunately we are not alone and one can almost smell some form disaster coming. Unlikely that a market collapse is based on a fresh black swan event as every possible scenario has already been discussed by many of the well known market influencers, many of whom by the way have flocked into crypto last year and early this year making equities a mere ripple in their portfolio's as long as prices remain buoyant of course. How institutional investors will react to a possible very dark price scenario remains to be seen. Central banks must be worried no doubt and they have no alternative than to continue ballooning their balance sheets.
There is simply no way out!
The unprecedented development of the last 15 years will either prove to be a complete failure as it flows against all economic principals, or 99% of scientists in the field of financial management got it totally wrong. Our guess is that it will be the former, but it may take another 5 years or more. What does usually happen is that many of those same scientists change their views as markets continue to perform against their standard prediction models. That's because they are human and become troubled by doubt. No Change.
30 July 2021 close: The past two weeks was again a repetition of market action seen so often. Market weakened from heavy overbought and high risk weight, rallied again and appears top be peaking once more. There are no rules anymore for this credit stimulus resulting behavior lead by central banks. One day... everyone in this market will remember that day. And in order to avoid the possibility of a very black day we will continue to forgo the opportunity and leave our assets in precious metals, crypto and cash. As the inflation wheel starts spinning there will be plenty opportunity left in the world of 'real money'.