BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

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25 September close: Bitcoin lost ground during the week following a series of published events and primarily China related. The drop came on Monday and Tuesday taking the market along with it from $48k to $40k. From Wednesday we saw some recovery but inconclusive. BTC will need to either make serious attempts to advance to new highs or suffer as markets always do if holding an asset no longer pays off for investors. The risk is that a push well below 40k brings the most recent major low of 29k into the picture again. Short ter risk weight (Daily) and Medium term (weekly) look weakish with Monthly fairly neutral. Being long is a big bet that we aren't willing to take simply because BTC isn't a penny asset anymore. The price of Bitcoin in particular represents a level that simulates a fiat currency system down the tube and out of control. We don't think that is going happen yet.
What may happen is Bitcoin losing substantial share against other defi and general crypto industry tokens representing a technological paradigm shift. I.e maybe Bitcoin, which has been the lead crypto in mainstream media, has just gone too far too fast. Who's to tell?

18 September close: Volatility in recent days has been relatively mild with a generally stronger market. Bitcoin and Total crypto market still have a beta closer to one, but we do see some shift in behavior, meaning that incvestors are taking a closer look at individual opportunities, often sponsored (promoted) by industry stakeholders. If we look at Bitcoin and total market we see medium term (weekly chart) risk weight in a very similar position and turning down. Daily risk weight looks stronger on Bitcoin than total market possibly indicating a correction on some of a big movers from thepast few weeks.Daily risk looks like it can turn up or fall out of bed with a bang. This market is still high risk and we are looking for an opportunity to diversify from a very low risk speculation base. We still favor the larger ABC scenario which is part of a much longer consolidation within a large price range. No change.

Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis

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25 September 2021 close: BEST did slightly better last week relative to the broader market for the first time in 5 months. A relative recovery phase could develop lifting the price by some 20 or so percent relative to BTC.
Our full position is a 'hold' waiting for an opportunity to add crypto tokens to the portfolio if the market decides to seek new lows. That isn't happening yet whilst our broader technical indicators still signal potential weakness ahead.
Monthly trend is still down, Weekly risk weight looks fairly undecided and could easily fill another price low with bullish divergence, Daily risk very similar to Weekly, yet the broader crypto market could also edge up again and making new quarterly highs. A chart of total market cap actually looks a lot weaker and it is undeniable that there is serious hidden risk as so profoundly mentioned by Michael Burry (Youtube link), whilst many many other influencer names like Simon Dixon, Michael Saylor, Raoul Pal, Max Keiser, Cathy Wood and many other make the same profound opposite calls all of which are widely featured on Youtube as well.
Just in the last few days we have witnessed that some of the more popular altcoins have lost some of the ground that was gained earlier.
If Michael Burry is right, and if so after a long wait, one needs the insurance of owning precious metals as well.

18 September 2021 close: Bitpanda Ecosystem token BEST still suffers from selling pressure hence not following thw wider crypto market. Since Q4 2020 BEST has performed very much in tandem with the broader crypto market with a Beta close to 1. BEST is still a junior market where much of the high volume trading needs to be absorbed by the Bitpanda broker system. We strongly feel that once the pressure stops, BEST can do catch up and could easily trigger a decent rally on its own whilst the broader market remains static. If the broader market does show serious signs of weakness, BEST could prove a very interesting opportunity once more. We hold and looking to add at lower levels whilst saving BEST rewards. We are still waiting for news regarding the fund raising launch platform, but this seems to be taken much more time due to regulatory issues. As Bitpanda grows its client base, its status as a regulated banking institution is likely to become a key advantage. The financial system as we know it may crumble, but international financial authorities will not ever languish monetary control as they have the tax monopoly.
Hence, if the broader market gets stronger, BEST is likely to outperform. If the broader market gets weaker, Best is likely to correct with a Beta of 1 but then recover more quickly once the pressure goes away. Hold!

S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

24 September 2021 close: The S&P fully recovered from an early loss on Monday pushing the index down to 4300 and ending the week 1% higher at 4464. Because Medium and Long term risk weight remain very high risk we cannot recommend a major hold. For the record, we've be out of this market since late 2018 and clearly lost opportunity. The only safe wealth management markets right now are Precious metals and some Crypto, besides some of the major monopoly names also in Nasdaq, some of whom do not meet the integrity conditions we would favor. In other words, it is not just about money or ROI, but enjoying markets whilst trying to preserve the value of one's assets at the same time.

17 September 2021 close: The risk weight distribution across the different time scales, daily | weekly | monthly, is showing continued high risk even though short term risk weight is obviously running down into lower risk territory, which typically leads to a BTFD scenario. Unfortunately and despite having been proven 'way too early' that higher long term and medium term risk is unacceptable as a wealth preservation strategy. Besides continued geo political tensions and growing public distrust in a system of crony politics, the financial markets can and probably will react in a very negative way if the World Ecomic Forum decides that change is necessary. That will already be too late and we can see equity markets losing much of its value in a short period of time. Risk is high hence No Change.

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