What is Bitcoin telling us? | 27 December
S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
|Standard & Poor 500||LT-M||MT-W||ST-D|
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)||↓ (↓)|
|90 (90)||93 (90)||86 (73)|
|Allocation Limit(30%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
24 December: All shine is of course on Bitcoin this week, whilst S&P Daily is correcting down possibly building another bullish divergence. S&P proably will need to correct a bit more even though everything under MMT influence appears a high risk one way street. High risk technically means no investment. With weekly now turning down, risk of corection has again increased. No Change
21 December: As the weekend unfolded with further extreme Covid situations and today's Saturn Pluto rare conjunction, investing strategies relying on a one way street must be high risk. This applies to all strategies without history like MMT driven asset appreciation and crypto currencies alike. Technically the S&P500 simply looks high risk and only therefore does not fit our common unleveraged investment risk approach. Our weekly risk weight trend has now joined the Daily turning down, which as we know does not mean it will go down. But risk remains very high with bearish divergence clearly present amongst Stochastic, MACD and RSI indicators. It will not be until this index resets itself into a technically driven balance of normality that we anticipate a serious investment attempt. We've been out of this market for just over 2 years. We did not participate in the 2019 rally and did not suffer in the 2020 Febr March implosion. We did not participate in the 2020 rally because of fear jitters when this market got seriously oversold in March. Opportunity missed but without the need to get nervous as the S&P whent from one short lived bearish divergence to the next. We're staying out.
Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)||↓ (↑)|
|50 (50)||92 (90)||86 (84)|
|Allocation Limit(10%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
24 December: Oil prices performed fairly strongly last week with Daily risk slowing the downtrend with some bullish divergence possible. Overall risk with Weekly at overbought level and Monthly looking to pause in neutral position remains unattractive to invest. No Change.
21 December: As we write this on Monday morning ECT, Brent finished last week at 52.25 ending the strong December rally thusfar. The picture this morning is different with clear Daily and Weekly divergence stepping in and pushing the market into a risk weight downtrend from high risk levels. No Change.
BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↓)||↑ (↓)|
|95 (93)||93 (89)||89 (46)|
|Allocation Limit(0%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
27 December: Bitcoin is clearly the star investment of the century hitting 28,400 today. It is best tasting piece of chocolate ever and is becoming an addictive pleasure. The narrative in the crypto industry is that Bitcoin represents the only alternative to fiat money in a controlled monetary system that has lost nearly all trust amongst financial market participants. As Decrypt writes, this surge has a number of key reasons.
- Growing demand and limited, maximised supply
- Major volume demand from insitutional and large UHNW investors
- Bitcoin halving
- PayPal offering crypto facilities
Unfortunately there is zero fundamental economic backing other than the narrative from major financial market influencers driving the price.
This may indeed be a one way street making a few million people very wealthy and many more millions fairly well off, on paper at least. We must wonder however where and how this will end? This unprecendented and potentially unlimited advance will likely become a very disruptive phenomenon in international monetary history. Or will it become the ultimate hyperinflation trigger that many have been worried about for the past 10 years? Or is MMT the new normal. A price race to the moon without backing simply has no logic, but as long as monopolist monetary authorities do not step in, for whatever reason, the kind of heavy buying of late, especially at these already elevated levels, can only lead to further exponential increases. With that in mind one must invest in Bitcoin of course. But that doesn't change the many potential risk elements associated with the effects on different cultures. Will Bitcoin change our social life or desires? Clearly many more smaller investors, or even the die hard anti-Bitcoiners, will be driven into purchasing Bitcoin as human greed needs to be released. The rally that started 3 months ago has seen the price triple already, which will by definition cause diversification into many lagging asset classes, or new asset classes represented by crypto tokens. No doubt a very interesting universal development, but also scary. We do not change our view on risk, but may prove totally wrong in the end and missing the out of the box better alternative to building a wealthy society without wars. No Change as we still think that gap at 2800 needs to be filled. Maybe never or only after reaching one BTC = 1 billion dollars.
21 December: A 140$% rally in under 3 months for a slow and very expensive to trade and mine crypto currency is nothing short of spectacular. The size of investments into this space by large hedgefund speculators and HNW individuals has been staggering and probably translates into a relative volume over 100x the trade Quantum fund did in the 90's to crush Pound Sterling. So, in spite of overbought high risk technical conditions this market exploded simply because this sizeable demand could not be met without seeing a huge spike in the Bitcoin price. But where GBP was clearly on a fundamentally high and unsustainable intervention level, Bitcoin is nothing more than a belief. It doesn't mean that it can't go to 100,000 or $1 million, just like Tulip bulbs mania that ended in 1637, but how realistic is that in light of a clear socio economic phenomenon. Digital currency makes total sense and that market will be with us for decades to come, hence our interest in regulated exchanges having chosen Europe's Bitpanda. But Bitcoin is a stand alone economic phenomenon that wlll probably have some disruptive effect for smaller investors, for various asset classes as wealth will be diversified, and possibly social unrest. All a function of a totally screwed monetary system. Many agree on that. We stay out of this frenzy.
Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Bitpanda - BEST/EUR||LT-M||MT-W||ST-D|
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑↓)|
|84 (82)||88 (83)||81 (80)|
|Allocation Limit(10%)||Invested||100% (100%)|
Bitpanda BEST token
27 December: Bitpanda’s Ecosystem Token rapidly increased some 60 percent the past 3 months and unlike Bitcoin has tangible characteristics offering commission discounts and rewards. This is our long term choice to participate in the developing token exchange industry as we believe that only fully regulated organisations will be the future for tokenised assets. Whether Bitcoin is going to play a major role in this developing industry, which it clearly does today, is not relevant. The Fintech market will be so much bigger than that and ultimately dominate all commonly adopted financial industry systems. Technically this market looks overbought Short and Medium term and may experience a pause. A correction of this small Market Cap token could create quite a bit of demand again With Bitpanda account holders in Europe as it did recently. As this asset is young we cannot yet do a proper Medium term and Long Term analysis. Beware, BEST is as volatile as most cryoto’s. Baeast is a ‘Hold’.
21 December: Unlike Bitcoin, Bitpanda's Eco System Token (BEST) is our chosen crypto alternative as it has real value backing in terms of comissions discounts and airdrop type benefits. It trades in a more controlled and under a fully regulated European authority. Due to the limitation of account holders in Europe only, for now, growth may not be seen as spectecular. But it is steady with a rapidly expanding and highly valued portfolio of software integrations that will change the digital investment space. BEST tokens have performed very well in recent months and clearly have benefitted from the general strong price hikes in all crypto currencies. BEST however should be much better protection as it not only can mirror the performance of any crypto currency, but do well whether markets go up or down since it incentives trading on the Bitpanda Exchange with real financial benefits. The other very important reason for owning BEST is the facility to trade precious metals backed 1:1 by physical deposit in Swiss vaults. This makes this exchange a primary candidate for acquiring a much larger load of transaction commissions in hears to come.
The PANTOS project is another reason to keep a close eye on Bitpanda as it could make that quantum leap integrating different Blockchains fairly soon. In a Central Bank regulated environment this integration can create an environment where exchange of tokens becomes the primary accepted and trusted choice for banking, making investments of any kind and any size at low cost AND pay for goods and services. Intially in Europe and later around the Globe.
12 December: What is the connection between Strictly come Dancing and Crypto tokens? Well, On a Saturday evening one can write a blog about crypto whilst watching an incredible live performance on telly. We started this blog today with BEST tokens trading at 12.97 eurocents and on a second look it trades at 14.18 eurocents, then down to 0,1327 again. Highly volitile and BTC in the meantime rose from 18300 to 18800 and down a little. These are just the kind of funny and rapid moves illustrating that crypto trading is a 24/7 hot kitchen. So, we valued BEST for the purpose of this blog at a weekend price of €0,1300, up 18% from last week. Unlike Bitcoin, BEST represents an Austrian Central bank embraced initiative and offers investors several real benefits. The crypto projects currently undertaken by the solidly growing Bitpanda Exchange go well beyond just trading crypto, precious metals 100% backed by physical, and fiat currency.
Last week BEST tokens actually advanced rather sharply from €0,1100 to €0,1650, a gross increase of 50% before dropping back to just under €0,1300. That is still a huge advance with a healthy price increase recorded the following weekend.
In a few years time the total number of BEST tokens available will have shrunk from the initial 1 Billion tokens to 500 million. 500 million is 23.81*the max official 21 million Bitcoins in circulation. Why could BEST not be valued just like Binance, XRP or BTC or anywhere between 100 and 2000 times its current value? Of course that is not the objective from a risk point of view, but unlike BTC and more like XRP it represents the future of high finance available to retail users at affordable and more transparent commissions. BEST is definitely a long term hold and if held against other tokens on the Bitpanda exchange it can be used for small trading in a smart way that is likely to reap additional financial rewards nearly every month going forward. We believe that every Bitpanda account should take advantage of the BEST benefits by owning at least 5% - 10% of liquid assets in BEST tokens.
Having now experienced the first major short term price advance, any short term technical bullish divergence on pull backs can be used to dispose of a regular financial asset in favor of BEST and then wait for a 20 or 30% BESR price increase to reverse that position again, maybe at a coversion cost of a few percent at most. This will be a repeatable low risk trading possibility over the coming months and years. No Change.