Bitcoin Warning - It is NOT digital Gold | 12 December
S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
|Standard & Poor 500||LT-M||MT-W||ST-D|
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑ )|
|90 (91)||90 (86)||73 (92)|
|Allocation Limit(30%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
11 December: A mildly weaker close this week coupled with an initial downturn of the Daily risk trend. The entire picture remains very high risk whilst sentiment is totally trusting the MMT narrative. Major market changes are on their way and that brings and along comes a new degree of risk awareness. The bigger macro picture is finally being influenced by helicopter money reaching mainstreet. It means a much higher likelyhood of potential runaway inflation in what will probably, In Our Opinion, Manifest stagflation until a new world financial order can be agreed upon. Our focus is now entirely on preservation and the new opportunities arising in a controlled DEFI environment. Until the risk picture changes to even mildly bullish, which is has not shown since 2016, we stay away from equity indices all together.
4 December: The party isn't over until it is. And it all depends on a few stocks that attract all the attention. The FANG+ group and a few stocks with dazzling PE's. As long as broad bearish divergence keeps appearing within all time frames this index and most other indices around the globe cannot be part of a responsible low risk investment portfolio. We are already achieving that with a long term precious metals portfolio achieving a very acceptable performance. In addition we have embraced crypto in a sense that technical knowhow is expanding rapidly bringing many sup[ewrb solution for digital banking and investing. Hence our choice to promote and participate in what could prove to be one of the most interesting Fintech concepts in Europe. Bitpanda's Eco System Token: BEST.
Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)|
|50 (50)||90 (83)||84 (86)|
|Allocation Limit(10%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
11 December: Brent had a fairly strong ride last week peaking at $51 before closing the week at 49.96. The technical picture across our different tools is not looking great even though risk in all timeframes is pointing up. All time frames are also developing bearish divergence, meaning a trun down in the Weekly medium term would trigger a bear move. Our risk management approach is NOT speculation, hence staying out of the Oil market as opportunity is weak in every respect. No Change.
4 December: Oil has always been been a highly speculative market where huge sums of money change hands, sometimes without regular economic substance. It is also a changing market as to its use and with pressure of climate change. Technically there is no real support to allocate funds so we stay away from it, having been partly burned from very mixed signals earlier this year and poor risk managment in hindsight.
27 November: Vaccin optimism continued to drive oil price higher peaking midweek and slowing into Thanksgiving. This market does not look terribly strong even though the recent move is substantial. It lacks technical support with Weekly risk weight looking to develop bearish divergence and Monthly in very neutral ground without strong directional support, i.e no strong uptrend visible in any technical tool. This is a suspect market with only shortb term circumstantial fundamental reasoning. No Change.
BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓)|
|93 (95)||89 (91)||46 (78)|
|Allocation Limit(0%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
12 December: This 24/7 market is completely controlled by some of the major stakeholders and early adopters of Bitcoin who had both the vision and also massive luck with the sheer size of the price advance from a few dimes to many thousands of dollars in just 5 years. 2 weeks ago Bitcoin was one hair short of making a new high before dropping more than 10% into last week and thereafter recovering some 4% into this weekend.
Some of the major influencers in this space all strongly promote Bitcoin as the only or best alternative to a rapidly failing and largely outdated traditional banking system. They like to call Bitcoin 'digital gold'. But Bitcoin is NOT digital gold. The arrogance that anything other than Platinum can be compared to physical gold can and probably will backfire big time. The only digital gold, with full legal ownership, would be an exchange traded token with 100% physical gold backing. Bitcoin, in our opinion, will not represent anything like Nature's Money (gold), only because a few wealthy investors say so? Bitcoin is not an attractive proposition anymore. It is extremelty slow, and thus cannot be used for quick exchange of goods. It is also very costly, energy wise, to mine and confirm new transaction blocks entering the chain. Our guess is that some of the highly sucessful entrepreneurs that have recently adopted Bitcoin as the 'only' store of value, committing 100's of millions at price levels closer to the highs from the most recent uptrend starting at $10k, can as easily loose 90% or more, because their risk assessment can only be atrributed to trust in the 'Bitcoin only narrative'. The fact that someone calls Bitcoin at $100,000 or $1 Million by whatever date is meaningless. All it does is trigger human greed which suits the manipulators well as they control enough Bitcoin to decide where the price goes. They cannot be financially broken anymore, whatever happens to price, as they are the VIRTUAL CENTRAL BANK OF THIS DECENTRALIZED CRYPTO ASSET. They, and their $multi billion investor friends, are the whales that determine its fate. Normal price discovery is out of the question as every price move can and if necessary will be controlled.
This all doesn't alter our view that a simple 2017 gap open above 2800 is still outstanding to be filled in normal trading hours. Simple, because history tells us that it does fill in 99% of cases.
Why is Bitcoin high risk?
Besides the dated technical specifications and not being very userfriendly requiring personal cold wallets to protect the asset, there are major developments in the Fintech space today driving a brand new world of finance where digital money can be transferred within seconds to any place on earth in a secure centralized or decentralized and regulated environment. Ethereum platform digital tokens like Bitpanda's BEST and Ripple's XRP are examples that could prove a lot more attractive as they actually represent something tangible. Bitcoin does not as long as it behaves like a massive speculative investment, yet as long as enough people believe the Bitcoin story it will no doubt extend its lease of life. But if we hear today that serious entrepreneurs are betting a vast majority of their liquid assets on Bitcoin, based on a 5 year old success story, something has to be very wrong with risk assessment. To us this is an 'all or nothing' highly dangerous single purpose hedgefund type strategy without the fundamental type economic logic of the 2008 Big Short. Just because a few smart influencers say so?
To us this is a very high risk approach and should only be adopted with liquid funds that one can afford to loose. BEWARE, Bitcoin is NOT digital gold and never will be. The demand for Bitcoin is also determined by a potentially disasterous false belief that it can replace the current regulated money system or that Bitcoin is the ultimate protection against a major system reset. Its value is however determined only by 'supply and demand' and nothing else. It is backed by nothing and it costs a huge amount of electricity to maintain.
One Billion dollars in Fiat currency is small fry these days and will hardly move the market. If there are a few serious buyers of Bitcoin with a similar dollar value it can drive the price up by 90% as it has done since August of this year. Nature then draws in small retail speculators most of whom will end up with a loss as history learns. History always repeats itself.
The crypto industry however is no doubt the most interesting challenge to our dated fiat currency and financial brokerage system, which we participate in and follow with great interest. .
4 December: We did see a new daily high in Bitcoin last week and the week ended with bearish divergence. Whether this will immediately materialize into serious weakness is a tough call, because the crypto community is hard pressed to follow major influencers in this space. Of course these influencers have to be right as it have them complete financial independence. However some of these people also can make very wrong predictions on other subjects or markets. BTC is a slow product and therefore cannot be used as a means of widespread money exchange between users. Being high risk technically, just like S&P, and knowingly manipulated by 'whales' we cannot allocate funds for longer term participation. Besides we believe in having that gap filled at 2800. This will happen once the digital alternative has finally been adopted by international monetary authorities, At that point there will be other more interesting alternatives to Bitcoin backed by real economic prospects. At the present level of near 20,000 there are already other assets that have the potential to perform as well as BTC has done since 2016. No Change.
29 November: BTC dropped 20% from the high in volitile midweek trading now experiencing a weekend rally. Technically the short term looks a little bullish, but the continued overbought condition of Medium and Long term risk weight makes an allocation irresponsible, especially since we still do not understand the narrative that Bitcoin as is good as gold. A new daily high during the coming week is likely to develop bearish divergence inside the daily time frame. This could trigger a very rapid decline unless this asset simply continues just like Tesla. Technically we continue our belief that the chance of filling the breakaway gap at 2800 is still realistic. The battle between the fiat currency monopolists and the crypto token crowd is yet to begin and we could become witnesses to a very interesting money war.
Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Bitpanda - BEST/EUR||LT-M||MT-W||ST-D|
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↓ (↓)||↓ (↑)|
|82 (85)||83 (90)||80 (70)|
|Allocation Limit(10%)||Invested||100% (100%)|
Bitpanda BEST token
12 December: What is the connection between Strictly come Dancing and Crypto tokens? Well, On a Saturday evening one can write a blog about crypto whilst watching an incredible live performance on telly. We started this blog today with BEST tokens trading at 12.97 eurocents and on a second look it trades at 14.18 eurocents, then down to 0,1327 again. Highly volitile and BTC in the meantime rose from 18300 to 18800 and down a little. These are just the kind of funny and rapid moves illustrating that crypto trading is a 24/7 hot kitchen. So, we valued BEST for the purpose of this blog at a weekend price of €0,1300, up 18% from last week. Unlike Bitcoin, BEST represents an Austrian Central bank embraced initiative and offers investors several real benefits. The crypto projects currently undertaken by the solidly growing Bitpanda Exchange go well beyond just trading crypto, precious metals 100% backed by physical, and fiat currency.
Last week BEST tokens actually advanced rather sharply from €0,1100 to €0,1650, a gross increase of 50% before dropping back to just under €0,1300. That is still a huge advance with a healthy price increase recorded the following weekend.
In a few years time the total number of BEST tokens available will have shrunk from the initial 1 Billion tokens to 500 million. 500 million is 23.81*the max official 21 million Bitcoins in circulation. Why could BEST not be valued just like Binance, XRP or BTC or anywhere between 100 and 2000 times its current value? Of course that is not the objective from a risk point of view, but unlike BTC and more like XRP it represents the future of high finance available to retail users at affordable and more transparent commissions. BEST is definitely a long term hold and if held against other tokens on the Bitpanda exchange it can be used for small trading in a smart way that is likely to reap additional financial rewards nearly every month going forward. We believe that every Bitpanda account should take advantage of the BEST benefits by owning at least 5% - 10% of liquid assets in BEST tokens.
Having now experienced the first major short term price advance, any short term technical bullish divergence on pull backs can be used to dispose of a regular financial asset in favor of BEST and then wait for a 20 or 30% BESR price increase to reverse that position again, maybe at a coversion cost of a few percent at most. This will be a repeatable low risk trading possibility over the coming months and years. No Change.
5 December: Bitpanda Eco System Token BEST performed very well last week closing in on the highs of a week ealier triggered by a breakout at 0,0950 that caused a quick 20% rally before settling around the breakout level just below €0,10. Today we have broken €0,11 (UP 10%) again and this Token looks increasingly promising as a future value proposition for every account holder. It has a real purpose and already offers a real attractive yield for Bitpanda account holders that are mildly active on the exchange. Besides, BEST tokens used to pay the discounted commissions are burnt creating more value for the remaining tokens in the process. The number of account holders has increased by 40% from 1 million about 18 months ago to an estimated 1.4 million recently. The arbitrage value of BEST is close to 12 eurocents but it could easily triple and still offer the same benefits for Bitpanda account holders. In relation to Bitcoin, which if course is also the most traded crypto on the Bitpanda exchange, BEST would be a or even THE perfect alternative to serve as an asset based Altcoin. We have adopted this interesting development and advised clients and friends to take a serious look for allocation of unused liquidity. Given its young age and relatively low liquidity (compared with BTC or Ether or Litecoin to name a few) this asset cannot be properly predicted from available technical tools. In 2021 this will become easier when 2 years on monthly data can better support a fuller picture of short to long time frames relative to each other and to themselves.
29 November: A very interesting development during the past week that already started the previous two weeks from the 0,0825 level. Last week BEST broke its previous 0,0950 high and started the week with a continued solid move towards 0,1000. A break of 10 euro cents quickly drove this token up another 15% to a high of 0,1150 before closing the normal trading week at 0,0995 and now moving around that 10 €cents level during the slower weekend. The equally sharp correction from that 11.5 cents top has now created space for further short term rallies whilst Monthly is showing the potential for developing a real market high somewhere during the next 6 months. As this extra-ordinary asset with real potential is still in its infancy, the information from longer term technical tools cannot provide the same diagnosis as with highly liquid mature assets. We believe BEST tokens have similar potential as some of the best performing assets in and outside the crypto space and it offers serious real benefits for owners trading any asset on the Bitpanda exchange. One of the fundamental reasons for this potential success is Bitpanda's Pantos project supported by the 2018 PAN ico token now trading at $0,045. The PANTOS project could easily become the leading blockchain development of the 2020's putting Austria and Bitpanda on an exclusive path to dominance in a fully regulated world of 'New investing' and 'New banking'. If that dominance materializes BEST could even shown stronger price moves than Bitcoin. Long term hold.
22 November: BEST tokens have performed strongly during the week (up 5%), possibly and likely helped by the advance in crypto currencies, BTC in particular. BEST at this moment on Nov 22 is making a new season high above 0,0950 which makes as much sense, more sense in our opinion, as Bitcoin. BEST represents a perpetual real value benefit for anyone trading an asset on the Bitpanda exchange. We particularly like the introduction of physical precious metals on the Bitpanda echange. All current and future Bitpanda account holders will benefit for owning BEST as it not only still trades below its intrinsic value, but offers real discount on trading commissions if paid with BEST as well as an actual yield in the process. This is quite a unique phenonemon even in today's Fintech environment. It will not prevent the BEST token from trading well above its intrinsic value just like Bitcoin, any other crypto currency or equities like TSLA. Arguably BEST offers the same if not a better opportunity to increase anywhere between 3 and 50-fold. Or even become the 'go to' safehaven. Whatever the market wants to believe and offers a high enough level of trust becomes of microscopic interest.