Bitcoin and Crypto generally : very tricky indeed


BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD Monthly Weekly Daily
58,671 (64,400)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
68 (69) 82 (86) 20 (56)
Allocation Limit(0%) Invested 0% (0%)



View full width crypto charts for tablet and larger

21 November close: Almost every single day the number of youtube advertiser 'specialists' in the financial and crypto space grows. Most of the information these days is 'old news' and 'stolen' from official earlier releases. Rubbish so to speak, but if we permanently hide those channels and stick with the originals we see a pattern that also these 'influencers' are increasing the frequency of their widely followed narrative now reaching a status of sending a daily dosis of Bitcoin and other coins 'pump' competition talk. Because the influencers are so wildly bullish, every day, again and again, because they can afford to be, this entire market is getting scary. Market behavior is no different that the Covid protests that seem to always end with Police clashes the past few weeks. Meaning the infinitely large number of pure speculative pump and dump Crypto traders will be getting their day in court, in other words thet will meet the real managers of this super inflation pool and can get hurt badly in the process. Let's hope everyone benefits and inflation will be tempered. But is that the most likely scenario? It doesn't mean this market cannot go 5X or more. Who can tell anyway what will happen these days. Technically almost all crypto tokens look they may still suffer a huge correction before the market settles down. Hence our own reluctance to follow the perma bulls and applying a serious level of risk reduction in our simple wealth management approach. The charts and tools of total market cap show the exact same pattern as Bitcoin but it shouldn't, realising that BTC indeed represents 40% of that Total market cap index. All normal intervals like Daily, Weekly, Monthly and Quarterly are predicting a high(er) risk of price vulnerabilty. The lower risk approach therefore is to simply not be 'all in, unless you can afford to be (= 'Sit through a potential 90%+ correction without sweat').

13 November close: Bitcoin started last week on a high note taking out the 67k October high with a fresh $69,000 print on Wednesday. The downturn that same day showed bearish divergence on all our tools making an immediate favourable forecast impossible. If BTC ends this quarter above the previous March high close of $58,800 and then turns down at the quarterly close in March or June 2022, we may also see a bearish quarterly signal on the Quarterly Risk chart which makes Bitcoin look extremely vulnerable medium term and possibly long term. We now expect several other crypto's to ourperform Bitcoin purely on lower token price considerations for a rapidly increasing number of day to day smaller investors. Many, not all, of the highflyers have no real economic case for an above average performance either. A speculative case yes. We have seen many 31/12/2021 Bitcoin price forecasts during the year ranging from a doulbing to $60k to $2 million during the year and just a tiny minority of analysts looking for a (much) lower 2021 closing. From a pure risk perspective we are clearly in that minority space. Just maybe 2021 will be a different year from what we've seen the past decade and we can still see the current price action being part of a potential irregular (Elliott) ABC correction. The chance of getting that wrong is actually getting smaller given the technical analysis picture offered by several relative strenght type tools such as Stochastic, MACD and RSI. We too love crypto as it provides much innovative excitement, but we cannot lose sight of the many risks, hence a different approach to where we rather seek participation in the regulated market that also offers indirect and even tangible benefit from owning crypto (Bitpanda's BEST is one example) or owning COINBASE, in which we took a very small position when it dipped during the crypto crash in May. Coinbase offers an indirect participation in the crypto space with a fairly high Beta correlation. Other than that only positions that can be entirely lost without ever losing more than 5% of total are acceptable.


Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis | 1 Nov

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda - BEST/EUR Monthly Weekly Daily
0.9600 (1.0175)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
30 (30) 79 (74) 20 (62)
Allocation Limit(variable) Invested 100% (100%)

BEST token live price



View full width crypto charts for tablet and larger


Bitpanda BEST analysis

21 Nov 2021 close: We've lightened up just a little by selling some of the reward tokens as the same applies to BEST as it does to most other crypto tokens. Our choice to largely stay with BEST after the 2000%+ rally since last year is one we've analysed every week and we still expect some good news on future developments. Having sufficiently protected the original investment ay higher levels we can handle a major correction and are looking to diversify in crypto on a still small but slightly larger scale as there will be triggers with potential greater long term benefit. No doubt that the entire crypto is exciting and crazy enough to stay on high alert.

13 Nov 2021 close: Our BEST holding was also shaky after a good start on the Month but held its own with a similar loss as the majors coming into Sunday 14 November. As Bitpanda's BEST tokens offer an strong incentive with their monthly rewards, which in our case vary between 0.9% and 1% every month, we can simply ignore large medium and short term price fluctuations or even a major drop until the entire market settles into a state of economic maturity. No Change.

06 Nov 2021 close: BEST started the week in line with the crypto market as a whole but then found fresh local European demand on Wednesday which took the Bitpanda native token up by 15% before settling around €1.0750. We took the opportunity to release the October monthly reward into fiat with a view to reinvest in an altcoin of some sort. As all major crypto assets have continued very strong into the new week, we may well take a punt in one or two Bitcoin alternatives if they reach a technical condition that justifies the risk. Such risk would not be more than 1 or 2 percent of total portfolio.
Bitpanda's BEST token does not show the same technical high risk weight levels as other very strong crypto performers do coming into the new week, including Bitcoin which already today almost reached its all time high of $66,999. As we also trade 100% physically backed precious metals through the Bitpanda exchange, BEST is still the fundamental choice of preference due to the monthly reward, 20% lower trading commissions if using BEST tokens for that purpose, and the regulated status of this Austrian crypto industry leader. BEST probably would perform better with added liquidity from non European countries but that Europe only crypto, stocks and metals exchange limitation however is unlikely to be changed anytime soon due to the international regulatory requirements. Strong HOLD on the core BEST position.

close

Sign-up to our Newsletter

Read our privacy policy for more info.

Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *