14 July print: The broad narrative on BTC remains fairly bullish whilst we see no technical evidence of this. This means the narrative is a lot more speculative with a great deal of wishful thinking going on. Major trends are clearly down across the broader range of crypto's. Risk of downside acceleration exists as long as monthly risk weight is in a strong downtrend. Most crypto's show a similar long term pattern many following BTC hour by hour. On the basis of current trend signals, many cryptos may still erase another 25 to 50% from current levels. The highest risk is not knowing, with a wide margin of error, where these markets eventually bottom and early bottom picking. Crypto markets feel like this is going on right now which typically leads to a high degree of unease amongst speculators. Staying sidelined would be the safer coursed of action. Limited risk chart updates during holidays. No change.
3 July close: The most relevant chart patterns for Bitcoin at the start of Q3 is a continuation of a stong Monthly downtrend and Daily risk quickly moving into 70% risk on a relatively small rally.
Not sure whether this is on purpose, probably, but this well known and easily recognized suit belonging to one of the most brilliant financial market entertainers and a huge BTC supporter has been wearing the Bitcoin Broche upside down since a few weeks. That says it all. Some Crypto whales say technicals don't matter in Bitcoin or crypto. Well, maybe not until they do and not just with hindsight, technical tools when applied within a proper financial risk management approach do tell a major story. The title is 'BE CAREFUL' Some people will be right and most will be wrong, as always. Right now risk remains high until some of these crypto markets really signal a bottom. As avoiding risk is in our system at least, Bitcoin doesn't look attractive. We shouldn't listen to screamers telling us why Bitcoin is digital gold. Because it isn't. It's Bitcoin and yes maybe it will go to 220k or much higher. The quantum leap that crypto devs are driving though is extremely exciting and will lead to many new solutions, but 'the powers that be' will eventually determine the outcome and what is accepted. No point speculating on the ultimate solution or what is a hype and what is not. This is one financial market that, right now, still looks high risk. It did that already in January 2021 and pushed through the roof during Q1. Huge gains have been made and partly lost again. Some lost their shirt in the recent correction or are about to. Bitcoin was a bubble in Q1 and corrected 55% thusfar currently at -48%. Someone bought that top and Bitcoin traded above 60,000 for 5 consecutive days and another few weeks above $55,000. If this is the Columbus Egg, why scream it off rooftops? Why? Whales make more money that way and that is the ONLY reason. Tghe idea of owning a basket of startup tokens with great potential makes total sense though and Bitcoin surely can have a slice of that pie, but when greed rises beyond belief something will give. 'BE CAREFUL'
BTC/USD interim Quarterly risk chart close 03 July
BTC/USD 10 year linear chart Major Highs and Lows | close 22 June 2021
