BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

View full width crypto charts for tablet and larger

24 October close: BTC, today 24 October is trading down at around 60,000 before ending its official market week on this Sunday. We normally place our technical picture at Saturday close. There is no denying that the potential of 'buy the rumour sell the fact' is still real market potential with BTC having rallied strongly into the launch of the Futures ETF and pretty much stalling soon thereafter and then dropping a full 10% into this weekend's close. the High Risk label remains, simply because both Weekly and Monthly risk weight is potentially setting up bearish divergence. This doens't mean the market will do down, but that it should not be part of a wealth preservation risk approach with an 'all in' allocation element.
As we show in the All Major Highs and Lows chart below the preferred Elliott Wave count is now for an irregular ABC to develop whereas the alternative could be that we have completed an ABC correction during the 64k to 30k drop. But that chart looks actually like a 5 wave if anything. Whilst the 30k to 66k wave, for now at least, looks like an abc 3 wave. Elliott Wave works best once the analysis can be done after a completed and confirmed wave pattern and for us it is just a great tool to develop a sense for market risk in short to long term time intervals, bnot necessarily as a toll for ultimate price prediction.

The other risk element is the continuing very strong narrative from several multi-million social media subscriber influencers in favor of Bitcoin and Ethereum. A real contrarian risk profile is at play here. We now witness silly and confusing predictions even for 2021 of BTC at $2M and Ethereum at $40k. Not impossible of course, but not based on sound argument other then strong personal belief. These are forecasts made by generally very bright and wealthy people with a strong business background and huge crony network. This type of risk approach however does not meet any of our criteria. Very small high risk allocation is fine but the 'all in' approach creates more fear of opportunity loss than of opportunity gain. Then again, the hardline Bitcoin 'hodlers' have been big winners in this casino market. As long as Bitcoin keeps advancing the number of winners will be relatively small and only the early adopters will just get richer way beyond long term luxury needs. On the other hand, if the market turns down in earnest many more investors across different asset classes will feel the pain. That could cause a virtual bloodbath and a risk we are not prepared to take. No Change.

16 October close: On the Total market cap chart both the Weekly and Monthly longer term time intervals will be showing potential bearish divergence if the indicators for those time intervals turn down market turns down (click here for chart). Bitcoin has been star performer lead by a very strong narrative from high powered Crypto influencers. On Friday the SEC in New York approved the first Bitcoin ETF backed by derivative futures, starting Monday 18 October. The news that this was likely to happen sent Bitcoin higher during the week peaking at just under $63k on Friday following the confirmation announcement.
The question is: Buy the Rumour Sell the fact event? We will see on Monday or Tuesday but the technical risk picture remains high although longer term time interval readings are still pointing up. A reversal based on bearish divergence of Weekly and Monthly risk weight could trigger a sharp correction across the crypto space. We still see this as a high potential event and lengthening the correction process that started last April. A new price high and subsequent drop would technically mark this as an irregular top and doesn't change our high risk chart pattern.
It is no denying that Bitcoin with a market cap over 1 Trillion dollars has audibly reached much institutional attention.
No Change.

Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

View full width crypto charts for tablet and larger

23 October 2021 close: It has taken an entire week for BEST to find a little bit of higher ground as the broader crypto space advanced strongly on the back of BTC and ETH. BEST closed Saturday 6.5% higher therewith outperforming BTC for the first time in 2 months. BTC ended virtually unchanged for the week and Ethereum was up around 2.7%. Our reason to choose to concentrate largely on the regulated side of the market is because we believe that a wild west financial industry does not gell with the historically more preferred centrally controlled monetary system. Any serious adjustment of the system will be well prepared and negotiated to achieve maximum benefit for the 'powers that be'. We give Bitpanda the benefit of any doubt and expect the BEST token to also perform beyond real inflation if BTC continues upward and benefit from yet to disclose Bitpanda group software applications that can drive wide financial industry adoption. BEST will then benefit from critical mass usage. Long term Hold.

16 October 2021 close: Our BEST portfolio is still one of the worst performers in the crypto space. Whilst the position is up over 900% from entry the token still seems to suffer from a large hangover at the Bitpanda broker. As the position is zero nominal risk we are waiting patiently for the correction against the broader market to develop. It doesn't take much for that to happen, but clearly there is nervousness and lack of trust. We still anticipate the fully regulated crypto Bitpanda exchange to be a leading external source for new wave financial products including a token launch platform. This should strongly benefit both Bitpanda native tokens BEST and PAN. And Bitpanda continues to grow strongly without allowing clients outside outside of Europe, it is a matter of time for the tokens to reach new highs. It may take a year or longer and worth the wait to see that trust being built and ensure a strong ROI. In the meantime BEST holders enjoy low risk monthly rewards and more, which is unique in the crypto space. No Change to this long term hold.

08 October 2021 close: Bitpanda's Ecosystem Token BEST still appears to still suffer from a long position that needs unwinding. Because this is typically controlled by the Bitpanda broker the trading platform gives little clue as to where the real price weighing is centered. We briefly reached the 0.80 handle but the market has since fallen back to 0.78 on very little volume. liquidity is an issue until account holders find more trust in this native token. We have been adding a little recently at the 0.71 level as there was still near zero movement whilst the broader market advanced at greater speed. BEST has underperformed by about 50% and looking at the technicals BEST has every chance of catching up even if the broader market stalls. We expect this token to appreciate fairly swiftly again once the interest returns. It doesn't take much demand from 3 million users to unwind any of the existing overhang which we cannot quantify, whilst Bitpanda, as the central token banker and primary market maker, cannot be seen to front run this market. Whilst interest rates remain low and inflation increases with assistance from astronomic gas prices, the wider benefits of owning BEST should ultimate take this token to new highs (> 2.60). Without the recent larger unwinding of positions the 'real' level should be closer to €1.25 per BEST token, not including any positive growth development effects of the company. We remain very patient hodlers.

S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

22 October 2021 close: S&P rallied into another high risk technical picture. Hyperinflation may drive this market much higher still, but the risk of stagflation is equally high which can hurt many second tier industries worldwide. The length of the current bull market is testing regular market logic. Dividends do not play any role in the investment decision. Equities are only subject to the analysis of future potential, which for several companies is extremely bright. The required funding is controlled by the same group of corporations that have been leading the pack for the past ten years. That's FATANG where the T stands for Tesla. These corporations do not need traditional Banks anymore. The Banks however do need FATANG and that by definition is a systemic risk in progress. No Change.

15 October 2021 close: S&P rallied again last week with the short term time intervals looking bullish again. Long term risk remains high even though the likelyhood trend of a new high is up again. We aren't alone is leaving the equity market to its hardcore players as the technical picture is too negative and against the principle of keeping portfolio risk low. No Change.

Gold Blog
Silver Blog
Platinum Blog
Forex markets Blog
S&P500, Crypto, Oil Blog