Bitcoin finds more competition from peers


BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD Monthly Weekly Daily
49,991 (48,943) +10%
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
63 (58) 86 (72) 76 (65)
Allocation Limit(0%) Invested 0% (0%)



View full width crypto charts for tablet and larger

04 September close: Total market Cap finished this weekend very strong approaching the all time high set in May with Bitcoin finding more competition throughout the past weeks from all of its peers. Yet 'total crypto' especially and to lesser extend Bitcoin are showing signs of potential correction wiuth risk weight moving into high risk ranges. We use a Saturday weekly cut off for practical purpose but as we publish BTC is getting close to 52k and seemingly on a roll again. Volumes are not huge which smells FOMO speculation. A new high would trigger a change of outlook which for now remains that we should expect a new low before reaching a new high. No Change

28 August close: Check this internal link to view the crypto total market capitalization chart including our base technical tools. Bitcoin is about 45% of that total crypto market cap which makes the technical indicators look very similar for both markets. Both show Daily risk having completed multiple bearish divergence instances whilst both Medium Term weekly and Long term Monthly can easily turn down in a regular fashion with a lower price and lower risk weight top. Another maybe bigger concern in today's crypto market is the story about Tether. Or rather the controversy that this so called unregulated USD backed stablecoin has created. Tether (USDT) is involved in about 50% of all Bitcoin transactions. Check out this article on TheVerge.com (safe link) to learn more. This kind of risk does not fit a risk aware portolio very well as it could do a lot of damage which could last for a long time, hence our preference to stay away from this unregulated space. As Tether can be traded against many fiat and the other major crypto currencies, Tether volume is much larger than Bitcoin.
Yet, If great visionaries like Michael Saylor fully expect Defi to play a critical future role in our lives, us simple minds should not ignore. But the order in which the next major (crypto) market events will take place may still surprise us as it is stil largely dominated by get rich quick specs and long time influencers and early adopters. No Change.

BTC/USD interim Quarterly risk chart 04/09


Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda - BEST/EUR Monthly Weekly Daily
0.8250 (0.8650)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
27 (33) 42 (30) 8 (15)
Allocation Limit(variable) Invested 100% (100%)

BEST token live price



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Bitpanda BEST analysis

04 September 2021 close: BEST is one of the very few tokens not producing a strong Beta price action. Price is down 5% whilst the total market is up some 10% last week. With over 3 million users (a 50% increase in 6 months) and a strong incentive to hold BEST we predict a very strong contra reaction (100% price increase) once the selling pressure vanishes. That would be perfectly acceptable as smaller crypto peers have already performed in that direction. The potential for this contra reaction is already visible looking at the BEST/BTC ratio which is visibly becoming low risk. But these markets can behave in a very irrational fashion whilst liquidity can be very poor at times.
Bitpanda's company valuation has increased substantially following the last round of funding led by Peter Thiels Valar ventures with other major investors involved in the deal. Pricing could go anywhere in the very short term possibly leading to a fresh opportunity to re-invest some earlier exit. Long term hold and now saving monthly rewards.

28 August 2021 close: BEST has met with significant resistance as it neared the 1 Euro handle and after a strong performqance 2 weeks ago has dropped back into the 0.80's. One of the reasons is a lack of interest as little development or company performance news comes out of Bitpanda. Yet the platform apps work flawlessly and have superior technical features making trading a breeze. Our interest remains with a great deal of patience because Bitpanda represents one of the few larger

    regulated

exchanges.
We do still anxiously await any reports about the early (pre 2019) idea to develop a launch platform for equity type private tokens. Bitpanda is strongly backed by a few major modern financial industry names and therefor likely to develop a more interesting forward looking statement that could propel Bitpanda and BEST into the next gear. Building BEST value, rather than selling, by holding the monthly rewards into 2022 may well be the better strategy waiting for price pressure to diminish. If it does BEST can easily perform like it did early this year and follow or even exceed the broader crypto market.

S&P, Stock Indices, Equities, High Risk, No Limits


S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 Monthly Weekly Daily
4535 (4511)
Trend ↓ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
98 (99) 95 (96) 93 (93)
Max Allocation 20% (20%) Invested 0% (0%)


03 September 2021 close: Risk weight across time scales is still at extremes which must lead to an S&P price correction which again is most likely to produce a BTFD event in the wake of continued monetary expansion. No Change in this perpetual high risk environment.

27 August 2021 close: The 100% S&P increasde since March 2020 is nothing short of spectecular. Still very few industry people feel comfortable trading this risk. The equity space is completely dominated by the FAANGs and a larger than ever string of equity repo programs funded by cheap fiat money. Is this a healthy development? We don't hink so, and force ourselves to not participate in these unprecedented market forces. The No Guts, No Glory, principle is beyond what is happening right now. Weekly risk has turned down at very high risk with all other time frames remaining at very high risk levels. Any time a major time scale turnes down it can be the start of something big. We cannot risk that 'big' event to become detrimental. No Change.

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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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