Will SHIBA UNI also overtake Bitcoin?
BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
31 October close: Bitcoin ETF finally didn't make it happen, thusfar. 'Buy the rumour sell the fact' turned out to be the better trade. Looking at risk weight across the different time intervals from hourly through to quarterly the largest risk is currently a bearish divergence in the weekly time frame. Monthly risk weight may well show that same picture if we get a close below 59,000 on Nov 30. The Quarterly time interval looks tricky but could potentially bear with a massive price increase and then collapse again.
Or not, because no one knows, except .......
Crypto in general however has our attention as it has increased the value of the total portfolio by more than 100%. We have long believed that stagflation is the better economic definition of what lies ahead. We are beginning to become more certain of that scenario in the making although it probably will start with inflation going parabolic first. This has to do with the ever widening gap between rich and poor with a decent percentage of middle and upper class investors (about 30%) having potential access to the crypto world. Profts made by millions of 'ordinary' people will eventually accelerate inflationfrom 5% per annum to 5% per day. Tulip Mania sits on our doorstep.
That crypto world is likely to grow exponentially in coming years and probably as fast or even faster than mobile phones many years ago. Simply because the easiest ways to invest and make international bank transfers are now just three plug and play clicks away on our smart phones. The number of crypto users worldwide is currently estimated at over 70 million and the number of wallets will be a multiple of that. Likely several hundred million wallets. That number of users and wallets is estimated to grow 3 fold in the next 7 years. how the influencer statistics analysts arrive at the correct model inputs is anyone's guess. But with over 1.4 Billion households worldwide, of which 30% have financial means to explore the new cheaper and faster banking avenues, that growth rate of 3X may be significantly higher. Inflation has been the name of the game during the industrial revolution and especially following the free floating of Gold in 1971. This has led to ever higher debt levels which have turned parabolic since 2010 and only to be properly visualised on a log chart. And when log charts come into play, that's inflation!
'Will SHIBA OVERTAKE BITCOIN'. Why not? With between 550 and 590 trillion tokens out of an initial offering of 1 Quadrillion (a 1 with 15 zero's) with further burns on their way, this crazy meme coin called SHIBA UNI may even become positioned to take over as world reserve currency. It will if everybody owns some. Already today we can and we do pay our fiat expenses with any crypto we have in our wallets. Crypto exchanges like Bitpanda with the VISA or Mastercard facilty for their retail and wholesale account holders offer this today and traditional banks simply can do nothing about it. Bitcoin really isn't that attractive in our opinion with just 21 million coins and too high a value as a result. Yes it's safe and will probably continue to increase in value over coming years, but more slowly we think. Bitcoin, being too slow, isn't the token for mainstreet as people will never understand it. We are just beginning to realize why stupid ideas and values like DOGE and UNI maybe aren't that stupid after all and thus have much more potential to become the preferred currency of trade for the 30% financial potentials or over 2 Billion people eventually. So, 400 million crypto accounts in a few years time shouldn't be a surprise, nor which currency or token they chose as their preferred unit for payments of goods and services. The switch to pay with SHIBA or any of the 100 odd solid tokens instead of EURO or USDollars is a matter of a few clicks on our mobiles. Amazon or any other retail name for that matter do not need to formally except payment in Bitcoin or SHIBA because we can already set our preferred asset wallet for any card payment today including the grocery store around the corner. We believe this is the future trend. A relatively modest diversification from profits into some of these widely supported tokens and maybe a few 'hot' new equities is probably the best way forward to protect and preserve. Possibly even the icing on the cake, amidst plenty turmoil along the way no doubt. In other words, today we'd rather own some SHIBA than Bitcoin, besides our BEST core holding, as the rapidly growing number of participants in the crypto space are already late and do not understand the reasoning for buying a token that has already gone through the roof. Besides, here also applies the rule of equilibrium. If certain things move too fast, some day they pause for the rest to catch up. And that rest accounts for 99.5% of the markets outside Bitcoin. Sure thing.
24 October close: BTC, today 24 October is trading down at around 60,000 before ending its official market week on this Sunday. We normally place our technical picture at Saturday close. There is no denying that the potential of 'buy the rumour sell the fact' is still real market potential with BTC having rallied strongly into the launch of the Futures ETF and pretty much stalling soon thereafter and then dropping a full 10% into this weekend's close. the High Risk label remains, simply because both Weekly and Monthly risk weight is potentially setting up bearish divergence. This doens't mean the market will do down, but that it should not be part of a wealth preservation risk approach with an 'all in' allocation element.
As we show in the All Major Highs and Lows chart below the preferred Elliott Wave count is now for an irregular ABC to develop whereas the alternative could be that we have completed an ABC correction during the 64k to 30k drop. But that chart looks actually like a 5 wave if anything. Whilst the 30k to 66k wave, for now at least, looks like an abc 3 wave. Elliott Wave works best once the analysis can be done after a completed and confirmed wave pattern and for us it is just a great tool to develop a sense for market risk in short to long term time intervals, bnot necessarily as a toll for ultimate price prediction.
The other risk element is the continuing very strong narrative from several multi-million social media subscriber influencers in favor of Bitcoin and Ethereum. A real contrarian risk profile is at play here. We now witness silly and confusing predictions even for 2021 of BTC at $2M and Ethereum at $40k. Not impossible of course, but not based on sound argument other then strong personal belief. These are forecasts made by generally very bright and wealthy people with a strong business background and huge crony network. This type of risk approach however does not meet any of our criteria. Very small high risk allocation is fine but the 'all in' approach creates more fear of opportunity loss than of opportunity gain. Then again, the hardline Bitcoin 'hodlers' have been big winners in this casino market. As long as Bitcoin keeps advancing the number of winners will be relatively small and only the early adopters will just get richer way beyond long term luxury needs. On the other hand, if the market turns down in earnest many more investors across different asset classes will feel the pain. That could cause a virtual bloodbath and a risk we are not prepared to take. No Change.
Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis | 1 Nov
(Previous week in brackets)
|Bitpanda - BEST/EUR
BEST token live price
Bitpanda BEST analysis
31 October 2021 close / 1 Nov update: BEST finally caught up with the rest of the market before taking the regular early monthly hit because BEST rewards are being paid out based on the wallet value at 23:59:59 on the last day of the month. It always affects the price in a thin market immediately after midnight. Nevertheless, we believe Bitpanda is extremely well positioned to protect the interest of its token holders which it proves by showing very solid growth of new accounts and bringing more tradeable assets on their system. Doing business on a fully regulated exchange gives comfort and the different benefits of owning BEST including the Credit card facility are second to none. BEST remains a core hold in our portfolio together with our precious metals and a few more crypto tokens to complement our low risk portfolio with a bit more fire.
We predict that if Bitpanda's Launch Platform sees daylight, BEST could become highly liquid and 10X today's price.
Most well established crypto tokens are still very speculative high risk investments and should only be purchased with money that sits totally idle and never more than a few percent of free capital.
23 October 2021 close: It has taken an entire week for BEST to find a little bit of higher ground as the broader crypto space advanced strongly on the back of BTC and ETH. BEST closed Saturday 6.5% higher therewith outperforming BTC for the first time in 2 months. BTC ended virtually unchanged for the week and Ethereum was up around 2.7%. Our reason to choose to concentrate largely on the regulated side of the market is because we believe that a wild west financial industry does not gell with the historically more preferred centrally controlled monetary system. Any serious adjustment of the system will be well prepared and negotiated to achieve maximum benefit for the 'powers that be'. We give Bitpanda the benefit of any doubt and expect the BEST token to also perform beyond real inflation if BTC continues upward and benefit from yet to disclose Bitpanda group software applications that can drive wide financial industry adoption. BEST will then benefit from critical mass usage. Long term Hold.
S&P, Stock Indices, Equities, High Risk, No Limits
S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
|Standard & Poor 500
|Max Allocation 20% (20%)
31 October 2021 close: S&P has become the non-stop event of the decade. Even though 'the trend should be your friend' what is unfolding in the world of finance has become so unpredictably predictable, that asset moves of 100% or much more over one year or less, when looking at crypto and certain high flyer stocks like Tesla, cannot be part of a portfolio where price discovery can no longer be measured by using technical tools for different time intervals and where only short term divergence is calling the shots. This is now starting to apply to most asset classes which means they can only be traded or hedged short term from the long side with close enough stops. Because we have entered our third year of purposely staying away from this high risk market we may return when markets become normalised and without the zero rate repo facilities serving the board rooms of the too big to fail banks and corporations. It means we will remove equities from our agenda next week possibly until shit hits the fan in earnest.
22 October 2021 close: S&P rallied into another high risk technical picture. Hyperinflation may drive this market much higher still, but the risk of stagflation is equally high which can hurt many second tier industries worldwide. The length of the current bull market is testing regular market logic. Dividends do not play any role in the investment decision. Equities are only subject to the analysis of future potential, which for several companies is extremely bright. The required funding is controlled by the same group of corporations that have been leading the pack for the past ten years. That's FATANG where the T stands for Tesla. These corporations do not need traditional Banks anymore. The Banks however do need FATANG and that by definition is a systemic risk in progress. No Change.