22 Jan 2022:
Crypto, hardly any token excluded, was hit hard following the Bitcoin lead into fresh lows for the year. BEST followed the broader crypto pack (-21%) with a 13% loss for the week into today. BEST however looks more promising as medium and longer term risk show a lower percentage risk. BEST 2.0 will go live soon, which we expect to strongly develop interest in holding and collecting BEST to the extend that BEST can 10x on a relative basis at least. Despite a weaker outlook the original position can remain unchanged and even increase by collecting rewards from trading a minimum desired EURO volume. For late adopters risk clearly remains high and diversification into traditional hard assets is the right approach to partially eliminate that shorter term downside risk profile.
16 Jan 2022: BEST again suffers from low volume trading although the up and down volatility is relative mild compared with the large crypto currencies. Our position remains unchanged accumulating rewards and cashing for reasonable yet equally speculative alternatives.
Bitpanda's PAN token had a strong, relatively very high volume, rally last week. Maybe someone knows something. Other crypto's also remain largely subdued following the intitial new year shakeout. No Chart updates as very little changes medium and long term.
BEST/EUR Risk Weight Position relative to Monthly, Weekly and Daily interval data
(Previous week in brackets)
|Bitpanda - BEST/EUR||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↓ (flat)||↓ (↓)||↓ (↑)|
|32 (33)||28 (45)||07 (30)|
at current value
BITCOIN: Tumbling price continues to show a high risk profile
22 Jan 2022 price print: The leading technical indicators time intervals are Monthly and quarterly risk weight with are both trending down with plenty more downside room. As Bitcoin has now lost 50% against USDollar in less than 10 weeks with no less than 5 new lows recorded in 2022, the speculative game, which this clearly is for the vast majority of investors, may lead to extreme FOMO activity by even the strongest of stomachs. FOMO equally applies to downturns and whilst the trend is clearly down it is and remains difficult to time a(n) (partial) exit. Leveraged long positions will already have been forced to exit whilst it probably only requires one whale to get wet feet for this market to further tumble into the next few target levels at $29k, $25k, $18k and $15k. With that in mind one cannot exclude the possibility of extreme volatility again with a potential price crumbling back to the start of the assumed Wave 5 on December 15, 2018. That low was $3,177. The price pattern how we may get there is not relevant as long as that risk remains. For now we can see an intermediate bottom relatively soon but that print may still be 20 or 30% below current level. And as the crypto market has turned into more of a short term trading style event we can expect volatility to increase dramatically in coming weeks and months. If that indeed happens some people in El Salvador will not like it. The worlds regulators should not be underestimated in times of crisis. Exciting times nevertheless.
16 Jan 2022 close: Bitcoin Market broke the Head & Shoulders neckline at 43,200 on Jan 6 and also broke critical $41,600 support level (neckline pivot point) on 5 occasions last week but it never closed below this critical zone. Then recovered back into the possible H&S neckline zone at $44,400. This is where this kind of market can either pleasantly surprise or kill any hopes of an early retirement for most. Technical risk remains high because medium and long term charts show bearish risk weight to price divergence. That means risk-off. The Bitcoin maximalist influencer voice is stronger than ever which is statistically irresponsible even though they might, with emphasis on 'might', still be as right as they have been for many years. The problem being most of them, with exception of the President of El Salvador, own BTC at early adopter levels. They can't go broke and they probably don't care. Yet other unforeseen forces may trouble even their strongholds. Exciting times.