BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

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18 September close: Volatility in recent days has been relatively mild with a generally stronger market. Bitcoin and Total crypto market still have a beta closer to one, but we do see some shift in behavior, meaning that incvestors are taking a closer look at individual opportunities, often sponsored (promoted) by industry stakeholders. If we look at Bitcoin and total market we see medium term (weekly chart) risk weight in a very similar position and turning down. Daily risk weight looks stronger on Bitcoin than total market possibly indicating a correction on some of a big movers from thepast few weeks.Daily risk looks like it can turn up or fall out of bed with a bang. This market is still high risk and we are looking for an opportunity to diversify from a very low risk speculation base. We still favor the larger ABC scenario which is part of a much longer consolidation within a large price range. No change.

11 September close: Bitcoin fell 14% on Sept 7 taking the entire market with it, but many altcoins would even more strongly recover from their loss than BTC did. Weekly Medium term risk weight is turning every so slightly down, but at the absolute higher risk level of 88%.This is why against the many influencer calls this asset remains high risk. We again show the All Time absolute cycle trends highs and lows below indicating what we may expect. Last week's drop from $52k to $43k shows the risk environment we have to deal with as investors. The stronger Altcoins, including Ethereum Cardano and Polkadot to name a few are, and rightly so probably, being diversified into. Total Crypto Market Cap ended the week at 2.1Tup from 1.2T just one month ago, showing an incredible reslience. Yet the Medium term technicals for Total market cap also shows high risk. We will be looking to add to our crypto portfolio if the market does move in the expected direction with a much longer term period of reversals and consolidation.

Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis

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18 September 2021 close: Bitpanda Ecosystem token BEST still suffers from selling pressure hence not following thw wider crypto market. Since Q4 2020 BEST has performed very much in tandem with the broader crypto market with a Beta close to 1. BEST is still a junior market where much of the high volume trading needs to be absorbed by the Bitpanda broker system. We strongly feel that once the pressure stops, BEST can do catch up and could easily trigger a decent rally on its own whilst the broader market remains static. If the broader market does show serious signs of weakness, BEST could prove a very interesting opportunity once more. We hold and looking to add at lower levels whilst saving BEST rewards. We are still waiting for news regarding the fund raising launch platform, but this seems to be taken much more time due to regulatory issues. As Bitpanda grows its client base, its status as a regulated banking institution is likely to become a key advantage. The financial system as we know it may crumble, but international financial authorities will not ever languish monetary control as they have the tax monopoly.
Hence, if the broader market gets stronger, BEST is likely to outperform. If the broader market gets weaker, Best is likely to correct with a Beta of 1 but then recover more quickly once the pressure goes away. Hold!

11 September 2021 close: BEST is still under relative severe price pressure from one or two parties seeking to diversify into lower risk assets. We technical picture indicates that the elastic move as compared to many if not most altcoins will be reversed forcefully once the selling pressure dries up. As mentioned last week, this could easily be a 100-150% relative correction of ratio's or even nominal in favor of BEST if the crypto market holds its broader high level. We will be looking to add cash to this position if another shakeout opportunity arises, say if price lands between €0,30 and €0.50. This may happen more easily if the broader crypto market also suffers in coming days. Anything is possible in these markets which are also exciting in may ways. Our take is that a fully regulated crypto environment like the Bitpanda exchange is more likely to survive the day, with the knowledge that Bitpanda is working hard on industry wide centralized and decentralized market trading software solutions, just like TESLA does besides making vehicles.

S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

17 September 2021 close: The risk weight distribution across the different time scales, daily | weekly | monthly, is showing continued high risk even though short term risk weight is obviously running down into lower risk territory, which typically leads to a BTFD scenario. Unfortunately and despite having been proven 'way too early' that higher long term and medium term risk is unacceptable as a wealth preservation strategy. Besides continued geo political tensions and growing public distrust in a system of crony politics, the financial markets can and probably will react in a very negative way if the World Ecomic Forum decides that change is necessary. That will already be too late and we can see equity markets losing much of its value in a short period of time. Risk is high hence No Change.

10 September 2021 close: The strong overbough and high risk levels from last week did result in a relatively minor correction of this broader index. Experience tells that this market is likely to be boiught again on this dip although it does not change larger risk to has been around the corner for a very long time now. If the medium and long term risk weight start pushing down anything can develop and, just like crypto, the correction may be extremely nervous and troublesome for smaller investors especially. Tough market hence No Change.

03 September 2021 close: Risk weight across time scales is still at extremes which must lead to an S&P price correction which again is most likely to produce a BTFD event in the wake of continued monetary expansion. No Change in this perpetual high risk environment.

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