Which one of biggest speculators will get nervous first? | 22 May


BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD Monthly Weekly Daily
37,476 (46,775)
↓ 19.9%
Trend ↓ (↓ ) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
79 (83) 52 (65) 25 (22)
Allocation Limit(0%) Invested 0% (0%)



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22 May close: Jan 2018 saw a drop of Crypto market cap of 52.5% during the month, whilst Bitcoin reached its intermediate peak in Dec 2017. May 19 showed an even larger high to low drop at 53.3% of total market cap. And the question is which of the relatively late converted whales will publicly loose their nerve if they haven't already? Both Weekly and Monthly risk weight are in (strong) downtrends and are now leading indicators to short term direction. Daily risk has not finished. It doesn't mean this down market cannot correct or even reverse, but the most likely technical scenario is for price discovery to find a moment of stability. The Quarterly log chart shows a 7 year channel with support at around 20k and resistance at 220-240k. The 4 year parallel channel drawn from the 2017 quarterly high shows support around 10k. This Long term chart shows a similar development as it did in 2018, but this asset simply has too little history to draw any conclusion except that is has now been proven for the fifth time that risk can be extremely high in a major bull run whilst being difficult to get timing right. As said in the mid-week comment; These kind of trend changes do not often V shape as too many investors get hurt in nominal losses or opportunity loss, that it takes time to recover from that emotion which is usually preceded by irrational trading behavior. Any sizeable price recovery will lead to intermediate pressure again until this major Bitcoin correction period is over. No Change. 16 May: Never mind the influencer narratives on social and mainstream media. We can't really call two word EM tweets a narrative. Bitcoin lost 20% in one week and was the main driver behind the overall market setback during the past two weeks. This time also Ethereum paused in a tight range versus BTC but strongly outperformed BTC during the entire month. The technical picture for BTC is still as described last week although short term Daily risk weight has now moved into lower risk percentage range. Medium term however is now in a strong downtrend removinbg the chance of a low risk divergence play whilst also interim monthly risk is now pointing mildly south. This picture tells us there is potentially more in store with a possible initial objective of 31,500-36,000. I.e. any bottom picking would be nice if it works but not sound trading action. Still high risk and no Change.

Bitcoin/USD interim quarterly close log scale chart close 22 May

BTC/USD interim Quarterly risk chart close 15 May


Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda - BEST/EUR Monthly Weekly Daily
1.2109 1.5679)
↓22.7%
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
70 (74) 58 (70) 15 (25)
Allocation Limit(variable) Invested 100% (100%)

BEST token live price



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Bitpanda BEST analysis 22 May

BEST has equally suffered and the correction is dramatic looking at opportunity loss. But the situation is different from Bitcoin and most other altcoins like Ethereum and Litecoin, because BEST is the only token offering a real minimum value with an attractive up to 1% per month reward system backed by a strong growth, well capitalized and regulated exchange. One can only hold on to Bitcoin and altcoins through major bull runs and full corrections if the entry point is far enough in the past that the minimum value is likely to remain above entry level. And that would have to be some 85% below the peak level at any time. That is guaranteed in the case of BEST and since we've secured our original investment during the bull run last month,'holding' is very safe and still generates a real cash return every month even though that value goes down with the price of the asset. We are now watching out for an opportunity to diversify some cash into several of the tokens on our watchlist if the opportunity presents itself. There are some very attractive propositions building for tokens isued by true quantum leap technical innovation companies. Jittery markets can see sudden deep throughs. Bids at low unexpected levels may get filled.
BEST looks technically stronger than BTC, but this too can be a false positive as is the situation with all crypto’s, none excluded at this moment. See BITPANDAPRO-BESTBTC

As a result of the large drop in the value of BEST this month, our precious metals portfolio has risen to 50% of total which feels very safe at this moment in time. A fall can only mean that crypto is back onto recovery, but this may take several quarters or even years, because Crypto is still hyperinflation price territory.

15 May 2021: Our core and preferred long term hold crypto BEST token again lost nearly 17% during the week (which we end on Saturdays) having experienced continued pressure during the week with a shakeout on Friday towards the 1.31 handle before recovering rapidly to 1.68. Continued pressure across the crypto space also has affected a few larger early holders of BEST which is still a relatively low volume asset and a junior amongst its peers. Large selling pressure has now faded it seems and BEST should trade more in line with general market sentiment. The technical outlook is similar as the major altcoins with exception of ETH perhaps. BEST Rewards concept from this very profitable and fast growing exchange have been and still are the prime reason for holding on to the core position. We only sell monthly rewards for cash or swap into a low risk alternative amongst just some of the many tokens traded from our market watchlist page. Our 'friends and family' group which came in early to this proposal are advised to 'HOLD'. Traders can wait as, like BTC and many other altcoins, we are now in a secondary downtrend and should first see an important bullish divergence before a (much) lower risk entry can be made into these markets. It means BEST is also at higher risk of revisiting last week's lows, unless the market turnes around with good technical prospects. No Change to the fundamental core position which is still up 1600% this year.

S&P, Stock Indices, Equities, High Risk, No Limits


S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 Monthly Weekly Daily
4161 (4174)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
97 (98) 92 (94) 50 (30)
Max Allocation 20% (20%) Invested 0% (0%)


21 May 2021 close: Equities are still a matter of 'when' not 'if' they will correct. As long the bearish divergence in long term risk weight persists, that risk is always imminent. An economic recovery may be on its way, but nothing is certain especially given the amount of capital needed, worldwide, to saignificantly reduce the carbon footprint. If public sentiment turns in favor of that transition even the best performing stocks could see substantial pressure. No Change.

14 May 2021 close: The S&P started the week towards the All Time High, now at 4245, and subsequently fell 5% into Thursday. We have not been able to read true market power even though techical sentiment has always been one of high risk. That is still the case today and our favourite portfolio hedge is precious metals and a few crypto's of which BEST has a core role, simply because Fintech is here to stay and only large regulated exchanges can survive because the world's monetary authorities will embrace them to retain control. As Central banks have adopted a policy of not raising rates whilst inflation takes off, these markets could go anywhere anytime. High risk, no Change in our book.


Brent Crude oil Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous in brackets)

Brent Monthly Weekly Daily
66.70 (68.75)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
89 (89) 74 (75) 30 (66)
Allocation Limit(10%) Invested 0% (0%)


21 May 2021 close: Brent crude is an asset that is likely to suffer long term as the largest oil company in the world, Royal Dutch Shell, has started to program a faster reduction of fossil use. Oil companies will see themselves forced to invest heavily in alternative energies sources. Largely a result of government and public sentiment. We can see this transition, which is aiming for ZERO transport emission in 2050 to develop much quicker as technologies to deliver much improved battery life and range will at least double within the next 5 to 10 years. The present high uncertainty of long term benefits from oil production are visible in the technical picture which is also undecided. No Change.

14 May 2021 close: Brent sits in the middle of a broad 6 year trading range with one very wild collapse in March 2020. There will still be (ever fewer) countries expanding use of fossil energy sources but long term demand, 5-10 years, will drop significantly as other energy sources like sun, wind and hydrogen will become dominant for most transport and heating purposes. At least this is what most major oil companies are driving towards, so it will happen. In the meantime it is hard to predict the medium term economic outlook post Covid. Maybe a temporary recovery and maybe not as so many fundamental factors weigh in that can break the current buoyant market temperature. No Change.

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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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