BEST has underperformed and seeks wider European Bitpanda user participation
BEST as an Ethereum blockchain token did underperform the broader crypto currency market by about 10%. Especially the major crypto currencies trading on their own blockchains recovered during March whilst BEST participation appears to have been diminishing to much lower levels since introduction. Broker activity looks to be mainly directed at supporting the token whilst showing continuous relatively substantial offers above the active trading ranges. Bitpanda pro is lacking proper volume with huge bid to offer spreads on limited size. 8 out of 10 bid to offer prices appear to be driven by Bitpanda broker. Bitpanda's introduction of BEST 2.0 in Q1, as announced in Q4 2021 hasn't fully materialized whilst the first BEST monthly burn on March 3 was also a little disappointing with just 1.8 million tokens. Yet better than the last Quarterly burn in late January.
Nevertheless, the BEST reward package is probably still the 'best' in the market and deserves a fair amount of loyalty from active Bitpanda exchange users. Unfortunately there is still very little Bitpanda performance data available to generate real enthusiasm in the short term whereas Big brother Binance seems to have a much stronger marketing development programme. Bitpanda is not yet showing the quantum leap we've been expecting. Something more exciting will need to happen during the next 6 months for the BEST loyalty programme to maintain strength. We remain fully invested but with a more critical watch. Technically BEST looks a little Better than Bitcoin which sits against the resistance neckline. If the broader crypto market takes another dive, BEST may follow at higher speed. Late adopters therefor should only keep tokens they can afford to lose 50% or more.
27 Febr 2022: The situation in Ukraine has put crypto markets on high alert. This can go either way. Protection against monetary uncertainty and non-availability of banking facilities may see a flight into key crypto assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum and others or the opposite may happen. Our BEST portfolio is still performing well with little change the past month, but we've decided to reduce about 8%, spread over the past two weeks, into cash and possibly into more precious metals soon or even back into crypto at any moment if the market shows further significant weakness. Some very small postion in alt coins and other native tokens have been released prior to the events of last Thursday just to reduce the speculative risk. We are still strong on the future of fully regulated crypto exchanges where Bitpanda still has a more advantageous proposition vis a vis several of the much larger crypto service companies. But just like Bitcoin, this token may tank if the market so chooses. For late adopters therefore it would be a consideration to release a bit more crypto in favor of cash and precious metals. This leaves us with a crypto portfolio allocation of around 40% which is still high but with the benefit of a attractive monthly yield close to 1%.
BEST/EUR Risk Weight Position relative to Monthly, Weekly and Daily interval data
(Previous week in brackets)
|Bitpanda - BEST/EUR||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)||↓ (↑)|
|20(31)||8 (15)||75 (45)|
at current value
Will Bitcoin make a new high in 2022?
01 April 2022 price print: Bitcoin and Ethereum led the advance of the broader market from 1.85 to 2.1 Trillion dollar, a strong 13% rally that is now struggling to move through resistance at around BTC $48.0k. We have concluded before that risk remains high, but a cross on the upside of current resistance may develop a fresh new wave. The information to hits us about crypto regulation and adoption of crypto payment systems versus fiat makes the narrative very troubled indeed and highly speculative. Bottom line: $15-20k BT is as high a possibility risk as BTC $100k oportunity gain. Low risk entries can sit tight whilst high risk entries should reduce at current levels again if the earlier opportunity could not be realized. I.e sell what you cannot afford to lose.
If Trust remains strong in crypto markets they will perform, bit it won't be easy money as wider participation will drive towards narrower, more competitive range pricing. Trading crypto markets eventually will become a substitute for currency markets as regulation finally makes its mark in coming quarters where the financial world becomes fully digital without escape.
Will Bitcoin make a new high in 2022? It might and then it might not. It will need to break the present resistance by moving into the low 50's. That would be a buy and will push many newer blockchain crypto currencies and deriative tokens into fresh high ground.
27 Febr 2022 price print: Following on our previous blog, Bitcoin performed well reaching a high of 45k but below its new resistance level over $46k, being the H&S neckline that broke on Jan 5 2022. We've since witnessed a move to a fresh, post all time high, low of 32,900 (see chart), then the recovery into the 45,000 handle followed by a managed drop towards 34,400 on the day of the Russian invasion from where BTC quickly recovered towards present levels around $39,000. The smaller and even more speculative coins dropped as much as 40% from recent intermediate highs and most have not recovered to the same extend as BTC into this weekend. That bigger downside risk is still on the cards if shit really hits the fan. A low risk approach for late adopters is therefor the smarter approach with nothing more than smaller unleveraged speculative positions with a short horizon. As long as Bitcoin does not break the old support, and new resistance, at 46k on 3 consecutive closings we stand by our longer term outlook of further price erosion into the 10's k. It is however entirely possible that the corrective pattern since the April 2021 orthodox peak has finished at 32,900. Weighing against this possibility is the ongoing downtrend of Monthly and Quarterly risk weight. If they decide to properly finish in very low risk territory, this market is in for further downside extremes. Right now Bitcoin is 43% below its maximum priced print from last November.