Strong Bitcoin rally not widely supported | 31 July 2021
BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|47,084 (42,335) +10%
|Trend||↑ (↓)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)|
|56 (55)||55 (37)||84 (85)|
|Allocation Limit(0%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
14 August close: Saturday's close at 47k+ meant a 10% weekly advance. Very strong and last the entire crypto market followed suit. The Crypto market cap figure has now risen from a low of 1.128T to the recent high of nearly 2.058. A massive 82% against BTC's 66% from the low. Some crypto's managed to more than double in value whilst others followed the general trend and all rallied 60% or more from their recent lows.
We are somewhat startled by the force of these moves as there was clear bearish divergence visible for many tokens between short and medium term. The current rally has now brought the medium weekly into a much stronger bullish position which makes risk of medium term correcting down much greater. Interim Risk, from a technical perspective, therefor remains high for most crypto's.
The quarterly log and risk charts below show the relative performance and how neutral BTC can look on a log scaled chart in this volatile market.
4 days can be a long time in Crypto. It took 4 days to move BTC from 32k to 40k just 3 weeks ago. Now we've been hovering around current level for days.
A lot is still happening in the world of DeFI and facilitating speculation between blockchains with smart bridges. We will remain very cautious until the dust settles, which it will do some day in the not too distant future.
08 August close: The major crypto's were lifted substantially after August 4. Tye many logical reasons are widespread on the web and social media, yet the sheer size of the move was a surprise given that the short to medium bearish divergence was working well into mid week. Again not all crypto's tokens shared the same enthusiasm but everything was up to some degree or more.
Although in this market anything is possible if more institutional funds enter, Risk weight still points down at current levels especially as short and medium term scales are moving into potential bearish divergence. Besides our currently weaker BEST holding from early adoption in 2019, we remain on the sidelines.
Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Bitpanda - BEST/EUR||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|0.9164 (0.6584) +39%|
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)|
|33 (32)||12 (8)||96 (85)|
|Allocation Limit(variable)||Invested||100% (100%)|
BEST token live price
Bitpanda BEST analysis
14 August 2021 close: From being the weakest in the space, BEST picked up steam and rallied into the 0.91 handle for a nearly 40% price increase. This in itself has lifted our portfolio value to the extend that our precious metals total allocation declined towards 40% from 50% and crypto increased to 40%. BEST remains our core token and we stick with our strategy to earn monthly rewards from trading mainly smaller amounts in short term precious metals which are 100% physically backed.
We do have several tokens on our wishlist and were nearly filled on some during the recent downturn but will not act against any high risk reading, especially if many of the moves are social media driven and not necessarily seen as the ultimate quantum leap into certain crypto high flyers.
We believe that the regulated crypto space will be the dominant force and that the world's largest regulated exchanges shall benefit most from the fast growing wholesale and retail crypto and blockchain participation.
09 August 2021: Bitpanda has been the weakest performer in the larger crypto arena of late as judged by the performance of their own native tokens, BEST and PANTOS. As so much development is going on in their space it is hard to judge. Bitpanda continues to increase the number of popular crypto's which matures its status as a major exchange. They remain very positive and do not, understandably, discuss the price trends of their native tokens. We can only observe and await more positive development news sometime in the next quarter. Coinbase's COIN could also serve as a hedge against BEST.
It is possible that one or two larger VIP participants have continued to take profit on initial holdings, even at the currently more attractive and much lower price level. This seems more lilely as price pressure was maintained all during the recent Bitcoin rally from 34k to 44k. BEST dipped as low as 50 Euro cents but then stabelised above 60 Euro cents. Risk of another major downturn applies to all crypto tokens as so many of them appear to have such massive speculative response. No Change to our overall strategy.
S&P, Stock Indices, Equities, High Risk, No Limits
S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
|Standard & Poor 500||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)|
|99 (99)||96 (95)||97 (95)|
|Max Allocation 20% (20%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
13 August 2021 close: Fortunately we are not alone in leaving this market alone. The equity space just remains overbought as long as there is no correction of any size and that won't happen until it does. It is an insider market and deeply manipulated. Riding the trend has been great even though the flavour isn't anymore. Very high risk dominates all technical tools except a few moving averages of course. Actually trading this market would be a nightmare unless it is from strength of long term holding some of the darlings like FAANG. No Change to No position.
06 August 2021 close: Whilst ever more cheap money is pumped into the economy, and again largely flowing into the very very profitable buy back trade, these markets have become too obscure for non insiders. Risk therefore remains extremely. Yes, there is a trend and the trend is your friend, but this goes way beyond textbook analysis whilst technical conditions remain exstremely high risk. Fortunately we are not alone and one can almost smell some form disaster coming. Unlikely that a market collapse is based on a fresh black swan event as every possible scenario has already been discussed by many of the well known market influencers, many of whom by the way have flocked into crypto last year and early this year making equities a mere ripple in their portfolio's as long as prices remain buoyant of course. How institutional investors will react to a possible very dark price scenario remains to be seen. Central banks must be worried no doubt and they have no alternative than to continue ballooning their balance sheets.
There is simply no way out!
The unprecedented development of the last 15 years will either prove to be a complete failure as it flows against all economic principals, or 99% of scientists in the field of financial management got it totally wrong. Our guess is that it will be the former, but it may take another 5 years or more. What does usually happen is that many of those same scientists change their views as markets continue to perform against their standard prediction models. That's because they are human and become troubled by doubt. No Change.