Crypto very strong this week | 13 Febr
BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
Price print Saturday 6 Feb 21:00 CET
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)|
|92 (91)||80 (76)||91 (86)|
|Allocation Limit(0%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
13 Febr 2021: So much fresh input about crypto and major Bitcoin adoption in particular is hitting the news wires. BTC closed the week (Saturday) at 46.800 and has already reached a new high following th BNY Mellon report. We are aware that any news of major new funding for Bitcoin will give the price a significant boost and larger and small traders will frontrun this new round of billion dollar investments. Regulatory issues as well as the extremely promotional narrative still represents a major risk. What is going on is of course extremely interesting and we start to hear from very small investors who are only now alerted to Bitcoin and seeking to invest. Coming in at these elevated levels is probably not a good idea for small investors and one has to wonder against which reference Bitcoin will ne measured in future. Even the biggest influencers in the crypto space measure everything against the USD, whereas the idea of investing in a decentralized currency is lack of trust in the fiat system. So where will this end and what if crypto currencies will continue to be measured against a relative vlaue of fiat currencies? What if one of the big players wants to sell 500 BTC? Will there be a market for them? This requires more than a crystal ball. Absolute belief that BTC is the juwel in the crypto crown is one thing and the attention clearly makes it grow. But...?
Blockchain has a massive future no doubt and anything 'Smart' ethereum based will make quantum leaps in the immediate future. This is why we look for some solid interest in crypto, away from traditional assets, most of which are in bubble territory and technically unsound for investment. Some Individual punts can still be interesting with a high risk portion of the portfolio.
6 Febr 2021: Bitcoin started last week at 32,300 and continued a steady advance for a high print of 40,989 before closing the week on Saturday at 39,234. A 21.5% week is nothing short of spectecular again. The potential to generate the same spectecular returns as in previous years is probably diminishing as more and more large institutional size investors have begun to participate. Other very interesting coins and tokens are surfacing with much potential. For some including government authorities, Bitcoin, which is a slow and expensive crypto currency, is a real challenge. For most people it is an unknown heavenly asset offering perpetual returns. We are not in favor of the risk associated with crypto currencies given the volatility. This does not match well as a major play with a wealth preservation risk profile. However we do believe that precious metals will start to rebalance both trust and value of any other world asset class including Bitcoin. Hence eyeing a good chance for gold to fill at least a few of the recent short term runaway opening gaps versus Bitcoin. The 'why' is because Central Banks will stick to Gold and they will find a more logical alternative to absorb the massive money creation during the past several decades. The biggest unknown is what will be the financial architecture to protect the banking establishment. Crypto, as a general term for everything Smart contract, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Blokchain transferability, Decentralized Finance etc, is an incredible quantum leap that is yet to be fully appreciated and understood by older generations like ourselves. That potential clash can hopefully find a peaceful resolve. We will still not attempt to participate in crypto currencies, other than a very small non leveraged speculative interest. Not suitable for high risk wealth preservation investments, hence no Change.
Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Bitpanda - BEST/EUR||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)|
|87 (91)||86 (81)||85 (94)|
|Allocation Limit(30%)||Invested||100% (100%)|
Bitpanda BEST analysis
13 February 2021: We've increased our portfolio allocation to 30 percent due to price development. BEST, after an 80% increase the week before, has another very strong week of 90% from that higher level. BEST was amongst several of top performers in the crypto space which included Ripple, Polkadot, Litecoin, Binance and others. Bitpanda's BEST has some very specific benefits that make it a more likely candidate for long term hold and reward. Again this coin is priced in Euro and as long as CP inflation is not shooting up the chance of further price increases is quite high. It could even spike, just like BNB (Binance) has done and many others.
Technically risk weight is high but we see that even very brief Hourly and Daily reversals can make this make these crypto markets just race ahead. This is not traditional technical analysis and anything based on simple or complex moving averages along is likely to become major disappointment.
Fact is that BEST is now racing towards 500 million market cap and in terms of European investor interest this could go 10x or more as Bitpanda, which is still relatively small, grows into its role as the future in banking and investing. The number of listings will grow, but only those that meet certain credit criteria. The introduction of the Debit card under the VISA label is a no brainer for Bitpanda account holders. With the likes of Revolut and N26 developing into full blown retail banking services, one wonders how long traditional retail banking will exist or why anyone would be bothered to even look and bank stocks except the larfgest investment banking institutions.
On Friday BEST rallied to an all time high of €0,8750 before retacing some quick 20% towards €0,70 and closing at €0,7363 on Saturday 13 Febr.
We do own some PAN tokens, which is finance vehicle for a joint development project with the University of Vienna to bring decentralized blockchains closer together. We have yet to see live implementation, but as a regulated institution Bitpanda is likely to also make this a successful project for the various participants and the token holders. Many tokens listed on different exchanges are very high risk even though some have increased 1000% or more. And this is what drives so many new investors into this space. For wealth preservation purpose, late entry into a crypto project is usually to high a risk but making certain well judged investments for 10% of total portfolio could be the start of a completely new way of looking at new and traditional asset classes.
6 February 2021: Our Bitpanda Ecosystem token BEST has been a strong performing asset in 2021. A one hundred percent rally to match Bitcoin in the first week of January and an even larger than BTC percent correction that bottomed on Jan 11. Since then BEST has seen steady progress of more than 50% into this weekend with a new all time high of €0.3900 recorded on Saturday Febr 6. A number of popular high market cap tokens have outperformed the broader crypto indices. Binance has been extremely strong the past few days, Maker, Polkadot and a few others have shown spectecular moves. Some of these larger tokens are on our watchlist. We have chosen BEST in 2019 as an entry into crypto it represents a rapidly well managed and growing regulated exchange with substantial rewards for BEST owners. A few smaller trades per month reap a 10% per annum reward payable in BEST tokens. This asset also fluctuates more than most traditional assets but as the Bitpanda exchange spreads its wings througout Europe with new listings and additional BEST benefits, the downside risk is considered manageable and within our risk parameters. Bitpanda's PANTOS project could also make a penetrating leap once introduced, allowing arbitrage of highly liquid assets like Ethereum and Bitcoin between different exchanges using the PAN token as intermediary value to execute such arbitrage.
S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
|Standard & Poor 500||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↓)||↓ (↑)|
|97 (96)||90 (90)||95 (90)|
|Allocation Limit 20% (30%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
12 February 2021 close: Unfortunately we we cannot but stay on the sidelines in this very high risk market. No leverage and no investment cannot create massive losses, only a loss of opportunity. Our S&P approach is a directive towards the broad equity space and has much less bearing on certain individual stocks which cannot being to cover. As money keeps pouring into corporate coffers and near zero funding rates, buy back programs are still the name of the game. Whilst many world economies are in serious trouble the interest in equities seems to concentrate on ever lesser individual stocks. This makes equity investing high risk for any individual. Needless to say that it has reaped many benefits for pensioners controlling their own portfolio's. No Change.
5 February 2021 close: The money machine revolution continues to do the intended job driving equity markets into new high ground again. As soon a shorter term risk weight drops below neutral levels and diverges against high risk long term risk weight it is simply BTFD again. Daily risk also rose into high risk bearish divergence level not allowing any higher risk participation. Many market influencers are seen to not understand this market behavior either but at the same time lean towards capitulation as if there is only one way left to choose; perpetual high double digit returns being long. Equities as generally represented in S&P 500 remain very high risk for any wealth preservation portfolio.
Brent Crude oil Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous in brackets)
|Trend||↑ (↑)||↑ (↑)||↓ (↑)|
|68 (67)||94 (92)||93 (94)|
|Allocation Limit(10%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
13 February 2021 close: Whilst long term risk remain in an uptrend it is a weak one with Medium term now very overbought but still up and Daily turning down on the close. This market is reacting to lots of conflicting news and still appears to favor the long side. This is a high risk asset, but the industry always finds a strong reason to support price action, up or down. Technically no interest to risk even a small portion and our early exit last year was unfortunate with hindsight perhaps, but would be repeated under similar unsual circumstances.
Covid certainly has done some serious damage across the globe which is now causing accellerated introduction of low CO2 of even zero carbon energy solutions. Not a recipe for major decisions in the Oil refinery space.
5 February 2021 close: Brent crude oil enjoyed one of the stronger weeks in recent months with a >8% advance on Friday's close. Weekly risk weight is developing a potential second bearish divergence. This alone makes this a no go investment even though Monthly risk weight is in a stronger but shallowing uptrend. As so many markets continue to advance against definitive technical evidence and with so many wholesale and retail investors moving free assets into the crypto space this may be a strong indication for serious inflation on the horizon. This is why physical precious metals stored in a secure location with strong custodianship are our primary assets to preserve wealth. The question is how long the Status Quo of near indefinite money creation can be sustained. No Change.