Does Elliott wave count support high risk Bitcoin | 17 July 2021
BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓↑)|
|54 (55)||15 (15)||14 (25)|
|Allocation Limit(0%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
17 July close: As we've been saying for quite a while, this asset class breaths high risk and it still does. Question what to expect in the medium term to prevent making opportunistic investment decisions in Bitcoin or its peer group of altcoins and other native tokens.
Whilst our short term en medium term tools are very oversold, we haven't seen any bullish divergence which means that any correction upward, of any length or size should normally be followed by another deeper low than the $28,800 already recorded on 22 June. We have determined our own Elliott Wave count to see how the risk profile may develop. This is made visual in the below all time and 4 year Bitcoin charts. The ABC correction drawn can take any shape of course, but the end of a major primary trend having been set at $64,000 is now more likely looking at our preferred count between 2010 and 2014. EW analysts always include one or more alternate counts simply because it is such a hard method to use for short term and medium term predictions. Our count below at least supports our key technical observation that a long term bottom in this correction may be a long way a way, meaning bottom picking for anything else than very short term trading is the wrong choice. Price development for the peer group of coins is very similar, although we do not have enough price data to run a similar analysis.
Are private wallets released again into exchanges?
This seems to be the case this week and it simply means that 'professional' investors are human creatures of greed and fear, looking to avoid losses just in case. Whales would likely seek to dump BTC if the recent low is broken which could quickly erase another 50% of the entire crypto market capitalization from the present $1,3T to $650B or much lower. Whales may even help the down move as it would create an easier market opportunity to become an even stronger group of alternating helmsmen of the asset class.
The crypto market is not for every day investors and many, including self appointed crypto professionals are at risk of losing substantially. Whales are only those private individuals who bought Bitcoin in the tens and hundreds, not the likes of Saylor and Musk or any regulated or deregulated exchanges under central bank microscopes. No Change.
14 July print: The broad narrative on BTC remains fairly bullish whilst we see no technical evidence of this. This means the narrative is a lot more speculative with a great deal of wishful thinking going on. Major trends are clearly down across the broader range of crypto's. Risk of downside acceleration exists as long as monthly risk weight is in a strong downtrend. Most crypto's show a similar long term pattern many following BTC hour by hour. On the basis of current trend signals, many cryptos may still erase another 25 to 50% from current levels. The highest risk is not knowing, with a wide margin of error, where these markets eventually bottom and early bottom picking. Crypto markets feel like this is going on right now which typically leads to a high degree of unease amongst speculators. Staying sidelined would be the safer coursed of action. Limited risk chart updates during holidays. No change.
Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
|Bitpanda - BEST/EUR||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↓ (↓)||↓ (↓)||↑ (↓)|
|44 (59)||3 (15)||4 (23)|
|Allocation Limit(variable)||Invested||100% (100%)|
BEST token live price
Bitpanda BEST analysis
17 July 2021: Our BEST portfolio has eroded slightly more than average whilst short and medium term indicators are very oversold on this week's close. Yet again, no bullish divergence, which means that any counter rally is more likely to be followed by another attempt to take the token to levels seen at the start of the year. €0,60-65 and €20-30 are realistic objectives with the former already touched as a possible short term correction bottom. We stick to our strategy of ticking the monthly rewards and looking for an opportunity to re-invest some of the strategic profits into strong fintech native tokens, staying away from popular digital currencies, unless an overwhelming buy signal appears.
14 July 2021: BEST looks equally weak and seems to have suffered from an exit by a few larger early investors in what is generally a fairly thin market and giving the Bitpanda broker a reason to lower bids for larger trades. BEST has now lost 70% from its peak and may lose substantially more of pressure persists. A BTC average majorf correction of close to 90% is not an unlikely scenario. We would be looking to re-invest free credit in BEST and other tokens on our market watch list at (much) lower levels if reached. Otherwise no change to our basic strategy of running the BEST portfolio for its monthly rewards. We believe Bitpanda and BEST can benefit from central banks and government authorities leaning towards more regulation in this industry.
S&P, Stock Indices, Equities, High Risk, No Limits
S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
|Standard & Poor 500||Monthly||Weekly||Daily|
|Trend||↓ (↑)||↓ (↑)||↓ (↓)|
|98 (98)||93 (96)||70 (90)|
|Max Allocation 20% (20%)||Invested||0% (0%)|
16 July 2021 close: The very high risk weight overbought reading of late did put a lid on further market advance last week with all time frames turning down. This asset class may recover quickly again as it has done every time during the past 3 years and it doesn't change the high risk position equity markets have been in. For 10 years this has been a market for inner circle operators. Until the party is over and there is no realistic assumption to be made under the unprecedented circumstances that have influenced financial markets for such a long time. Hence our less profitable escape towards precious metals and some fintech. Anything related to the energy transition is likely to become the next class to concentrate on following an initial general draw down on world stocks market cap.
14 July 2021 close: The S&P 500 index and other global equity markets simply remain beyond any realistic market expectation.
As major central banks seem to have found enough excuse to keep rates down, since they have no administrative choice, equities may just continue higher, yet showing the highest possible caution scenario. Happy to not participate and having lost an opportunity for nothing more than a reasonable financial gain if managed to run the course and get out in time. Few professional, let alone ordinary, investors people can achieve this under the weight of many different influencer opinions. No Change.