Crypto market lead by Ethereum and Solana this week


BTC Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD Monthly Weekly Daily
61,539 (61,344)
↑10.7%
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
69 (69) 87 (87) 60 (42)
Allocation Limit(0%) Invested 0% (0%)



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6 November close: The Crypto market certainly keeps attention high. Ethereum and Solana were star performers whilst BEST finally recovered a bit against the majors last week. Our Saturday weekly cut off point was already followed by a strong entry into the new week. The highly volatile crypto market as a whole is getting very close to the $3 Trillion market cap level and it is a matter of time for that level to be taken. Technical Risk however remains high for the top large cap performers. As soon as risk weight gets towards the 98-100 % risk range in shorter term time intervals these assets can suddenly dive without warning. This is the result of liquidity being controlled by industry and dedicated to certain token whales. The biggest Bitcoin risk right now is developing bearish divergence in the Monthly time frame. Weekly risk weight already has developed this pattern across all technical tool. Long positions without any other purpose than making a large trading profit therefor have become too speculative for simple wealth preservation technical fundamentalists like ourselves.

31 October close: Bitcoin ETF finally didn't make it happen, thusfar. 'Buy the rumour sell the fact' turned out to be the better trade. Looking at risk weight across the different time intervals from hourly through to quarterly the largest risk is currently a bearish divergence in the weekly time frame. Monthly risk weight may well show that same picture if we get a close below 59,000 on Nov 30. The Quarterly time interval looks tricky but could potentially bear with a massive price increase and then collapse again.
Or not, because no one knows, except .......

Crypto in general however has our attention as it has increased the value of the total portfolio by more than 100%. We have long believed that stagflation is the better economic definition of what lies ahead. We are beginning to become more certain of that scenario in the making although it probably will start with inflation going parabolic first. This has to do with the ever widening gap between rich and poor with a decent percentage of middle and upper class investors (about 30%) having potential access to the crypto world. Profts made by millions of 'ordinary' people will eventually accelerate inflationfrom 5% per annum to 5% per day. Tulip Mania sits on our doorstep.
That crypto world is likely to grow exponentially in coming years and probably as fast or even faster than mobile phones many years ago. Simply because the easiest ways to invest and make international bank transfers are now just three plug and play clicks away on our smart phones. The number of crypto users worldwide is currently estimated at over 70 million and the number of wallets will be a multiple of that. Likely several hundred million wallets. That number of users and wallets is estimated to grow 3 fold in the next 7 years. how the influencer statistics analysts arrive at the correct model inputs is anyone's guess. But with over 1.4 Billion households worldwide, of which 30% have financial means to explore the new cheaper and faster banking avenues, that growth rate of 3X may be significantly higher. Inflation has been the name of the game during the industrial revolution and especially following the free floating of Gold in 1971. This has led to ever higher debt levels which have turned parabolic since 2010 and only to be properly visualised on a log chart. And when log charts come into play, that's inflation!

'Will SHIBA OVERTAKE BITCOIN'. Why not? With between 550 and 590 trillion tokens out of an initial offering of 1 Quadrillion (a 1 with 15 zero's) with further burns on their way, this crazy meme coin called SHIBA UNI may even become positioned to take over as world reserve currency. It will if everybody owns some. Already today we can and we do pay our fiat expenses with any crypto we have in our wallets. Crypto exchanges like Bitpanda with the VISA or Mastercard facilty for their retail and wholesale account holders offer this today and traditional banks simply can do nothing about it. Bitcoin really isn't that attractive in our opinion with just 21 million coins and too high a value as a result. Yes it's safe and will probably continue to increase in value over coming years, but more slowly we think. Bitcoin, being too slow, isn't the token for mainstreet as people will never understand it. We are just beginning to realize why stupid ideas and values like DOGE and UNI maybe aren't that stupid after all and thus have much more potential to become the preferred currency of trade for the 30% financial potentials or over 2 Billion people eventually. So, 400 million crypto accounts in a few years time shouldn't be a surprise, nor which currency or token they chose as their preferred unit for payments of goods and services. The switch to pay with SHIBA or any of the 100 odd solid tokens instead of EURO or USDollars is a matter of a few clicks on our mobiles. Amazon or any other retail name for that matter do not need to formally except payment in Bitcoin or SHIBA because we can already set our preferred asset wallet for any card payment today including the grocery store around the corner. We believe this is the future trend. A relatively modest diversification from profits into some of these widely supported tokens and maybe a few 'hot' new equities is probably the best way forward to protect and preserve. Possibly even the icing on the cake, amidst plenty turmoil along the way no doubt. In other words, today we'd rather own some SHIBA than Bitcoin, besides our BEST core holding, as the rapidly growing number of participants in the crypto space are already late and do not understand the reasoning for buying a token that has already gone through the roof. Besides, here also applies the rule of equilibrium. If certain things move too fast, some day they pause for the rest to catch up. And that rest accounts for 99.5% of the markets outside Bitcoin. Sure thing.

BTC/USD interim Quarterly risk chart


Bitpanda Pro - BEST Token Price Risk Analysis | 1 Nov

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda - BEST/EUR Monthly Weekly Daily
1.0750 (0.9670)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
29 (29) 72 (64) 88 (94)
Allocation Limit(variable) Invested 100% (100%)

BEST token live price



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Bitpanda BEST analysis

06 Nov 2021 close: BEST started the week in line with the crypto market as a whole but then found fresh local European demand on Wednesday which took the Bitpanda native token up by 15% before settling around €1.0750. We took the opportunity to release the October monthly reward into fiat with a view to reinvest in an altcoin of some sort. As all major crypto assets have continued very strong into the new week, we may well take a punt in one or two Bitcoin alternatives if they reach a technical condition that justifies the risk. Such risk would not be more than 1 or 2 percent of total portfolio.
Bitpanda's BEST token does not show the same technical high risk weight levels as other very strong crypto performers do coming into the new week, including Bitcoin which already today almost reached its all time high of $66,999. As we also trade 100% physically backed precious metals through the Bitpanda exchange, BEST is still the fundamental choice of preference due to the monthly reward, 20% lower trading commissions if using BEST tokens for that purpose, and the regulated status of this Austrian crypto industry leader. BEST probably would perform better with added liquidity from non European countries but that Europe only crypto, stocks and metals exchange limitation however is unlikely to be changed anytime soon due to the international regulatory requirements. Strong HOLD on the core BEST position.

31 October 2021 close / 1 Nov update: BEST finally caught up with the rest of the market before taking the regular early monthly hit because BEST rewards are being paid out based on the wallet value at 23:59:59 on the last day of the month. It always affects the price in a thin market immediately after midnight. Nevertheless, we believe Bitpanda is extremely well positioned to protect the interest of its token holders which it proves by showing very solid growth of new accounts and bringing more tradeable assets on their system. Doing business on a fully regulated exchange gives comfort and the different benefits of owning BEST including the Credit card facility are second to none. BEST remains a core hold in our portfolio together with our precious metals and a few more crypto tokens to complement our low risk portfolio with a bit more fire.
We predict that if Bitpanda's Launch Platform sees daylight, BEST could become highly liquid and 10X today's price.
Most well established crypto tokens are still very speculative high risk investments and should only be purchased with money that sits totally idle and never more than a few percent of free capital.
No Change.

S&P and other assets



5 November 2021 close: We have removed commentary onj the S&P from this section as we cannot foresee taking any high risk position in other asset classes for the time being. Our primary market watch is focussed on Precious metals and Crypto.

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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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