Platinum USD forecast is $1600 then par against Gold | 25 June


Platinum Price Forecast relative to Long Term Monthly - Medium Term Weekly - Short Term Daily - and Hourly (not shown) data.

PLATINUM FORECAST

(Previous week in brackets)

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Platinum USD Monthly Weekly Daily
1111 (1036)
↓ 10.8%
PT Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
PT % Risk
Weight
75 (72) 20 (23) 45 (8)
PM Distribution
Total allocation 50% (35%)
Pt:35% Ag:30% Au:35%

Platinum / USD live price



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Platinum comment

25 June 2021 Daily Platinum turned up strongly from a support trend breaking low at $1019 to finsh the week above $1100 again. Weekly risk is at 20% whereas the $850 correction low in October 2020 was at 30%. This lower risk weight coupled with a higher price often plays out as bullish divergence. This keeps us in the physical Platinum 'Hold'. Monthly risk has yet to produce a peaking formation typical for a longer term trend. Platinum is just making a weak attempt to return to the 10 year breakout level around 900. It is possible to go there but seems unlikely given the too frequent positive momentum.

18 June 2021 Last week was the worst performance since our full 1/3rd allocation to Platinum with PT dropping back to just 13% paper profit after cost of physical storage. The entire move may not be over, but the overall short and long term technical outlook still looks very positive given that we should expect another strong move up as Long term Monthly risk has not yet reached typical topping action. This now looks a long time away still and makes our position relatively low risk against any asset class for that matter. So, no change.

PlatinumUSD (Interim) Quarterly 25 June


GOLD/PLATINUM Ratio Price Risk Charts & Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Gold Platinum ratio Monthly Weekly Daily
1.6010 (1.7054)
Trend ↓ (↑) ↓ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
23 (31) 73 (98) 27 (94)
PM Distribution
Total allocation 50% (35%)
Pt:35% Ag:30% Au:35%

Gold/Platinum Ratio Charts

Daily Ratio 25 June

Platinum recovered later than expected but the move was 6% in favor of Platinum last week. The move from 1.70 to 1.60 was fairly sudden and developed a strong risk weight downtrend ending at 27%. The Daily risk trend is always volatile and is not finished.

Weekly Ratio 25 June

Weekly risk weight showed bearish divergence between 3 weeks of data and has now started a downtrend which could itself correct but needs to go much lower before this ratio bottoms again.

Monthly Ratio 25 June

With weekly moving to close its bearish divergence versus monthly, Monthly would need to develop bullish ratio divergence in its own timeframe first before a major trend bottom is signalled.

Qrtly Ratio 25 June

Quarterly risk weight has corrected back into its original trend and we'd like to see it closer to the 10% level before a Gold/Platinum ratio bottom can be called. This still looks to be well into the future. The Gold/Platinum analysis serves to confirm and continue holding an equal allocation of physical Platinum.


Daily Ratio 18 June

Platinum suffered most during the eextended downturn of all metals, but is not showing a longer term change of trend even though all risk weight time scales are now pointing up on this Gold/Platinum ratio. The early last week rapid drop in risk weight could have continued but the subsequent near death of the long term trend developed an equally strong cirrection towards overbought with a potential bearish divergence developing. Risk therefor to hold on to Platinum in an equal ratio to Gold is still low and our cushion is sufficient to allow this risk to develop in our favour once more.

Weekly Ratio 18 June

Weekly risk weight at near 99% supports our overall position.

Monthly Ratio 18 June

Monthly is up at 30% but the shorter term Weekly timescale is now showing more bearish divergence against Monthly.

Qrtly Ratio 18 June

Quarterly risk weight has now ticked up from last quarter by just 3 points closing at 31 on Friday. This is more likely a (part of) blip than change of trend. Corrections can take longer which means the end of this current cycle just takes much longer to complete. Patience with this Platinum allocation is the best technical reading from the combination of all risk weight time scales.



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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2021 Forecast, PLATINUM FORECAST 2021 | EYEFORGOLD.

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