Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 22 May 2020

Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 22 May 2020

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
2956 (2850)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
47 (45) 58 (56) 87 (41)
Allocation 0% (0%)


The Standard and Poors index had a strong week again indicating V shape recovery sentiment. Weekly risk weight trend turned back up at a neutral 58 with Daily getting overbought. Whether this sentiment to buy stocks in the absence of other traditional alternatives proves correct remains to be seen. This market is now flooded with printed easy money distributed via the 0% window at the discretion of fractional reserve banks. Monthly Long term charts point towards weaker price action as all technical tools have confirmed bearish divergence. That it its own right represents very high long term Risk. Hence no allocation to this S&P Index. And this also applies to stock indices around the globe. No Change.

15 May: We have been stubbornly on the sidelines since Q3 2018. Have we missed opportunity? Sure. Do we think Amazon is a good bet? Probably. Yet the overall picture remains very shaky and highly inflated. Stock indices around the globe have been primary beneficiaries of MMT. They haven’t popped yet. Our technicals this week turned down again except for monthly which remains in a downward trend with ways to go potentially. High risk market, No Change.


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
35.12 (32.75)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
16 (16) 36 (25) 89 (87)
Allocation 50% (50%)


As Brent held Long Term support level at 15.00 the subsequent rally into the present mid 30’s did come unexpected for many. With daily at non extreme overbought and Weekly and Monthly trends up we continue to hold expecting the $45 gap fill in due course. No Change.

15 May: A bit of high risk Daily vs Med and Low risk weekly and monthly may put some short term pause or pressure on price the coming week. But that looks like temporarily slowing direction speed.
One of our poor timings, which we have kept for technical reasons and betting on the likely gap fill at $45 within a reasonable time frame. Technically Brent looks quite a solid uptrend whilst there are so many arguments that demand for oil is likely to remain weak and therefor price should stay low! So, we’re watching these technicals for an exit signal. That has yet to materialize. No change for the time being. Eventually, gaps in liquid and less manipulated markets are always filled

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
9150 (9500)
Trend ↓ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
43 (44) 78 (70) 56 (70)
Allocation 0% (0%)


At the May 22 close BTC looks a little tired in the Medium and Long term time frames whilst daily risk is now neutral after having turned down. Generally this is considered a higher risk situation. Speculators we hear from are extremely bullish on Crypto, but we cannot see the regulatory case for the big breakthrough in terms of price moving substantially higher. No allocation, no change.

15 May: The past two weeks saw a return to the 15-20% price swings. Technically little change however now with both Daily and Weekly showinbg potential bearish divergence if price peaks at or above 10k and then turns down again. With strong 2 year resistance at 10560, that divergence scenario is real risk for longs in spite of all time frames trending up at this moment. No Change for us


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0847 (0.0840)
Trend NA (NA) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
NA (NA) 80 (80) 52 (30)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


This young market still shows strong upward potential. The allocation is based on fundamental belief in a strong future European regulated exchange for crypto trading. Risk weight in Short term is in uptrend with plenty of room still to accellerate. Weekly shows hesitation at a highber risk level. Price action does not confirm a change of trend. Fore that we also need to wait a few months in order to get a clean monthly reading. An interesting defensive Hold expecting authorities to embrace crypto on a much wider scale in the near future. No Change.

15 May: The risk weight gap between Daily (low) and Weekly (High) is a technical recipe for building a price base at current level. Bitpanda is in a slow proces of building its exchange and seems to benefit from demand in the various crypto currencies and their precious metals space backed by physical metal stored in Switzerland, unlike GLD. This remains a ‘hold’

Courtesy chart of the Binance coin in USD which started life in 2017 at 0.05.


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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2020 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - OIL - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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