Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 28 August 2020
S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
Standard & Poor 500 | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3507 (3396) | ||||||
Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↑) | ↓ (↓) | |||
% Risk Weight |
83 (83) | 95 (93) | 96 (83) | |||
Allocation | 0% (0%) |
21 August: The bulls and bears have said it all. The Robin Hood crowd is likely to get largly wiped out as the circus continues. If all common sense with stock price discovery is completely out the window, this puppet theater may just linger on until it stops. Risk is that the Stop will be sudden with a serious headbanging knockout effect for many participants. The formula designed by the world’s majors is based on insider information. One needs to really know how long this will last and when it stops. For that one must have access to both the institutional and mainstreet flows. Listening to Berkshire Hathaway isn’t enough anymore although they have very short lines odf communication to the major players in the equity industry.
The technical picture of course hasn’t changed and hinges on Long term risk weight which pushed us out of the market in Q4 of 2018. No change this week in Monthly and Weekly risk weight remaining both high risk and in bearish divergence build up. Buyers buy because it makes money as most of everything continues to move up, whether warranted by forward guidance or not. No Change. If anything, our Long term forecast is likely to become even more severely angled to the downside as this bubble keeps building
Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
Brent | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
45.94 (44.26) | ||||||
Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↓) | ↑ (↓) | |||
% Risk Weight |
45 (44) | 91 (90) | 33 (63) | |||
Allocation | 0% (0%) |
21 August: Oil looks technically heavy. The expected recovery to fill the 45.25 gap from March took very long to materialize with an incredible narrowing of the daily ranges. From experience this picture is fairly bearish. Since our risk model will never short an asset class and is always unleveraged we will stay out of this market
BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast
(Previous week in brackets)
BITCOIN BTC/USD | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11450 (11633) | ||||||
Trend | ↑ (↑) | ↓ (↑) | ↑ (↓) | |||
% Risk Weight |
65 (65) | 84 (87) | 23 (38) | |||
Allocation | 0% (0%) |
21 August: Short term Daily continues building some bullish risk wei Yetght divergence versus Weekly and Monthly. No strong signal either way where this market will move next. The Daily price channel and the main risk trends are up. Above 11,200 this market looks to continue stronger. A drop below 11,200 increases risk of moving into our still uncharted 2017 gap fill at 2800. At least until that happens we will not participate in this asset class
Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis
(Previous week in brackets)
Bitpanda – BEST/EUR | LT-M | MT-W | ST-D | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.0820 (0.0791) | ||||||
Trend | ↓ (↓) | ↑ (↑) | ↑ (↑) | |||
% Risk Weight |
74 virtual (73) | 26 (18) | 78 (43) | |||
Allocation | 100% (100%) |
BEST token live price 24/7
21 August: The market clearly hasn’t discovered this pretty solid token with quite a few unsual benefits for token holders. Technical are beginnning to show that Short term risk is diverging positively versus Long term. We need another 5 or 6 months of data before the Monthky risk weight has plenty to show for and indicate the real level for this market. Even if only precious metals continue to see enough demand at this exchange, Bitpanda and the BEST token are a safe bet. Buying asnd selling Precious metals by the way on ther Bitpanda exchange is extremely easy and offers high speed pricing whilst any metals you own are 1:1 backed by physical. The crypto exchanges will continue to attract business as there are enough participants that prefer, rightly or wrongly, to own digital money over Fiat
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