Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 28 August 2020

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3507 (3396)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
83 (83) 95 (93) 96 (83)
Allocation 0% (0%)


The S&P closed just above the top of the expanding triangle which generally is a bear signal position. With Fed continuing to print and seeking or allowing higher inflation the ‘unlimited’ scenario is becoming highly dangerous. With long term and medium term bearish divergence close to getting confirmed we can but be negative on this index. During the major corrections we felt good and during the bubble directions, as now, we are happy not to be exposed at these unrealistic levels. It doesnt mean the equity space can’t go higher, but we prefer to protect assets with hard metals until the monetary pandemic resets itself. Staying out is our potective Mask against the Long equity virus.

21 August: The bulls and bears have said it all. The Robin Hood crowd is likely to get largly wiped out as the circus continues. If all common sense with stock price discovery is completely out the window, this puppet theater may just linger on until it stops. Risk is that the Stop will be sudden with a serious headbanging knockout effect for many participants. The formula designed by the world’s majors is based on insider information. One needs to really know how long this will last and when it stops. For that one must have access to both the institutional and mainstreet flows. Listening to Berkshire Hathaway isn’t enough anymore although they have very short lines odf communication to the major players in the equity industry.
The technical picture of course hasn’t changed and hinges on Long term risk weight which pushed us out of the market in Q4 of 2018. No change this week in Monthly and Weekly risk weight remaining both high risk and in bearish divergence build up. Buyers buy because it makes money as most of everything continues to move up, whether warranted by forward guidance or not. No Change. If anything, our Long term forecast is likely to become even more severely angled to the downside as this bubble keeps building


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
45.94 (44.26)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
45 (44) 91 (90) 33 (63)
Allocation 0% (0%)


If this market goes much higher it means something is about to hit us as the picture is technically building a top that could so easily roll over into a fresh bear market. A strong oil market goes hand in hand with strong oil demand, which can easily be met from rather high oil reserves around the globe at this moment. The energy space remains highly uncertain under Covid pressure on world economies. We stay away from this risk asset.

21 August: Oil looks technically heavy. The expected recovery to fill the 45.25 gap from March took very long to materialize with an incredible narrowing of the daily ranges. From experience this picture is fairly bearish. Since our risk model will never short an asset class and is always unleveraged we will stay out of this market

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
11450 (11633)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
65 (65) 84 (87) 23 (38)
Allocation 0% (0%)


BTC Weekly risk has turned down whilst Daily shows bullish divergence versus weekly just like last week except Daily risk has now turned up. We still believe that Bitcoin, with everything staying equal, should return to fill that 2800 gap up opening in August 2017. That gap became invisible on real time charts as providers adjusted daily on screen price ranges to the 24/7 trading facility. Yet that gap, was never really filled as experienced with highly liquid and professional markets during normal business trading hours. No Change.

21 August: Short term Daily continues building some bullish risk wei Yetght divergence versus Weekly and Monthly. No strong signal either way where this market will move next. The Daily price channel and the main risk trends are up. Above 11,200 this market looks to continue stronger. A drop below 11,200 increases risk of moving into our still uncharted 2017 gap fill at 2800. At least until that happens we will not participate in this asset class


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0820 (0.0791)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
74 virtual (73) 26 (18) 78 (43)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


BEST is trading 3.7% stronger this weekend and start to show a financially and technically deserved higher interest. The Medium term risk weight showing a stronger uptrend comforts this fundamental interest in a future with many more digital tokens representing different types of financial assets. Regulated Fintech exchanges will be part of a future and will also become our future retail bankers without borders. No Change.
21 August: The market clearly hasn’t discovered this pretty solid token with quite a few unsual benefits for token holders. Technical are beginnning to show that Short term risk is diverging positively versus Long term. We need another 5 or 6 months of data before the Monthky risk weight has plenty to show for and indicate the real level for this market. Even if only precious metals continue to see enough demand at this exchange, Bitpanda and the BEST token are a safe bet. Buying asnd selling Precious metals by the way on ther Bitpanda exchange is extremely easy and offers high speed pricing whilst any metals you own are 1:1 backed by physical. The crypto exchanges will continue to attract business as there are enough participants that prefer, rightly or wrongly, to own digital money over Fiat


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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2020 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - OIL - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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