Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | close 03 JULY 2020

Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 03 July 2020

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3125 (3019)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
70 (58) 84 (83) 74 (45)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Strong S&P performance last week but staying in range for now.
Tools still look heavy and should trigger pressure in the index. As this asset class like most others are under complete central control anything is still possible. That is poor risk hence staying completely out of this market. If we do see new highs we basically face another series if bearish divergences which must not be ignored. This is a market for very high risk operators at the centre of exchange activity and with high speed access to all markets and their respective hedging instruments. I.e not for everyday folks playing the stock market as it inevitbaly leads to whipsaw trading on rapid market pivots. NO change.

26 June: Not surprising that the monthly risk weight turned up earlier this month following the largest bear market rally ever seen, whilst many still believe this Equity index has way more to go with predictions into the higher 3000’s. Largely based on QE to infinity or at least till the Nov 2020 US elections. We do not see that happening as all risk weight tools are still working on bearish divergence since the February peak. Hence we expect the S&P risk weight trend to turn back down again. Nothing technically, except the expected unexpected ‘whatever it takes’ central bank support, calls for a long term bull market run. No Change


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
42.78 (40.69)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
35 (27) 90 (82) 75 (60)
Allocation 50% (50%)


For some reason this Brent price shows technical strength and still awaiting the gap to be filled at 45.25. Right now this looks like a good target to exit, but a strong further rally to wards the mid 50’2 could still be on the cards with long term Monthly in a strong uptrend which only just started currently at 35 risk weight.

26 June: Brent oil didn’t quite make it last week to fill that gap down open from March, but the short term down move when finished can easily setup for another strong rally to fill that gap and even move well beyond. We stay with our position for technical reasons as well as the expectation form the gap to be filled before long. No Change

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
9030 (9050)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
50 (48) 78 (82) 25 (25)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Very little price change and hardly any change in risk weight levels or trend direction. We still favor a old gap fill at the 2800 handle before this markets matures. No Change.

26 June: Bitcoin is no alternative value based mature asset class. It remains pure speculation. technically BTC could find some support in the 8800 range, diverge shortb term against weekly and rally into resistance to resume the Medium term downtrend that just set in. We still believe we need to see 2800 and possibly much lower before this crypto currency can seen as a serious contender to compete with fiat money. No Change


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0820 (0.0805)
Trend NA (NA) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
NA (NA) 65 (70) 72 (78)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


Best Token improved slightly this week whilst the weekly risk weight ended 5 points lower with daily continuing is a shallow uptrend. Bitpanda’s strategy is very much based on proper research and slowly building a larger asset base of tradeable tokens plus Precious metals. This is a hold. No Change.

26 June: Bitpanda’s BEST is holding well at the 8 eurocents level. Daily remains in a steady uptrend whilst Weekly is down with potential to turn up into a first price peak since the recent major rally started back in January.We need to wait for more monthly data before we can see a longer term technical trend developing. For now, BEST is a participation hedge in a new regulated Blockchain market of a growing multitude of asset backed and other very popular crypto tokens.
The position is a longer term hold. News is likely to be good news as Bitpanda is well capitalized with very little market risk. Positive marketing of the company and adding new exchange traded tokens is the recipe for strong expansion. No change

Courtesy chart of the Binance coin in USD which started life in 2017 at 0.05.


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