Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | close 12 June 2020

Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 12 June 2020

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3037 (3189)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
57 (60) 78 (72) 54 (95)
Allocation 0% (0%)


All technicals tools have shown bearish price to risk signals in March. This hasn’t changed, hence a BTFD is only for speculators. It may happen again as we have witnessed so often during the past several years. But it DOES NOT change the picture of a high risk market being created by and for those who must stand in the way of a systemic failure. If economic indicators become totally irrelevant to equity index valuations, something is cooking. We hold to our target outlook nearer 1200, hence staying out of this market. Our guess is that if Weekly turns south again the move could be proportionally significant. No Change

5 June: Listening to any influencer in Maintream or Alternative Media one detects a large element of caution regarding equities. This is not about individual stock opportunities, but about market risk. The risk of being whipsawed in these type of markets is extreme and holding on to this type of risk, with one’s own money, and with leveraged positions is unwise. Yet for most speculators and traders everything is measured by financial success ratios. The Monthly risk weight turned up again following an extreme extension of the strongest advance ever experienced in history. We certainly did not expect this and we shouldn’t have if only because unemployment data parameters used in the reporting appear suspect if so much imbalance shows to the monthly figure. We are looking at a V shaped recovery of the Standard and Poor’s index. Technical risk to resume a sharp downtrend remains very high as it has done since September/October 2018. Staying out of this market is a wiser and more balanced choice


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
39.04 (42.07)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
25 (25) 60 (48) 65 (94)
Allocation 50% (50%)


The high of 43.41 wasn’t enough to fill the gap so our position remains. Daily was overbought turning down with a fair divergnce type gap but not enough to call it a day. It looks like the Short term needs a pause to come more in line with the Long term uptrend. As it happens at around the $40 handle level Brent could even develop a trend into the 70’s again where a 12 year resistance line comes in play. Gaps ($45.27) will be filled, so no change for now.

5 June: We are getting very close to filling the $45 gap and we’ve held that view and our position since the pandemic struck hard on energy commodities. Daily risk has turned down but should develop bearish divergence in its own time frame during the next 10 days or so, or fall hard with price correction and develop a bullish divergence versus the Weekly and Monhtly time frames. If this market continues strongly, fills the gap and takes medium term risk into an overbought level we may close the long position. If the market retraces we will likely hold until the gap is least filled. That being the most likely scenario historically. No Change

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
9385 (9670)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
49 (50) 87 (84) 29 (63)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Potential bullish divergence is developing between Daily and Weekly risk weight. Relative strength is not confirming nor is MACD. WE cannot exclude a short term spike to develop both a Short and Medium term overbought condition. This close to major long term reistance makes this market unattractive (higher risk) to be long at these levels. No change.

5 June: BTC stays largely within the Long term wide range 2017-2020 triangle. Investors see a safehaven function, but in the and this market has not shown any evidence of competing as a solid asset class. Technical risk does not look very favourable even though all time frame are trending up. If Daily gets into overbought territory a sharp drop could develop quickly towards the bottom of the triangle and beyond. We still expect that gap fill at 2800. That huge risk in itself is reason not to speculate in this market. For now at least. No Change


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0800 (0.0828)
Trend NA (NA) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
NA (NA) 76 (80) 34 (34)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


Tuesday June 9 was a bullish divergence trigger between Daily and Weekly timeframes after hitting a intermediate low on Monday. Our position is otherwise fundamental as a protection against the negative tide of fiat regulation and inherent weakness of international bank transfer technology and counterparty risk in the international banking world. In much the same way as why digital banks like Revolut are growing rapidly. This is a loudest signal that the era of traditional consumer banking is coming to an end. As this is all Fintech and based on very similar technical scripts, Bitpanda is likely to formally join its fiat payment peer group in the near future since any person can accept payment in the form of its choice, whether national or international fiat money or any exchange listed token which can be exchanged for fiat within minutes. With a host of digital asset backed tokens being listed in coming years the potential for the BEST token is substantial as it will continue to act as a discount window for all token transactions through the Bitpanda exchange as well as a generic safehaven against systemic fiat currency uproar.

5 June: BEST has lost 3% last week with Daily and Weekly risk in downtrends. This investment position is based on the idea that a paradigm shift will take place in financial markets and regulated (crypto) digital exchanges stand to benefit. As more assets are being tokenised and ready to be traded on these crypto exchanges, volume will increase steadily, benefitting holders of Bitpanda’s Ecosystem Token (BEST)

Courtesy chart of the Binance coin in USD which started life in 2017 at 0.05.


Forex markets Blog
Global markets Blog
Gold Silver Blog


Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2020 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - OIL - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

Leave a Reply