Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | What will happen to stocks Oil and crypto? | 14 August 2020

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3367 (3352)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
83 (82) 93 (92) 79 (85)
Allocation 0% (0%)


With all time frames up at the close of business August 14, the S&P index appears to still ignore any potential market danger. The Monthly time frame is now showing a potential fourth bearish divergence in 3 years time. On each of these events we have seen the S&P make a correction followed by a rally into new stratospheric ground. The current price is technically suspect of making an irregular top whereas Stochastic, RSI and MACD in the Monthly time frames are all indicating high risk bearish divergence. Each of the high risk signals since 2018 are reasons to stay away from this market even though Fintech monolopies with strong earnings numbers have driven the indices higher.
The fairly rare broadening price formation seen since 2018 tells the story of disagreement amongst market participants and is generally a prelude of a bear market in the making. Having missed all of this potential profit in recent years, with hindsight only, whilst risk remains extremely high for equity investors is just part of a strategy to avoid major risk in financial asset allocation. No Change.

7 August: This is a time that several National Treasuries must be very much aware that they will cause havock amongst small investors. The psychology factor is pushing many small investors into stocks at massively increased risk levels. Many will lose their shirt. Throughout the 5 month advance, having generated new all time highs in S&P and NASDAQ, risk has remained high which is why a possible expensive opportunity is missed in favor of removing portfolio risk. Especially the long term bearish divergence comes into play in our three risk weight tools, Slow Stochastic, MACD and RSI. Given the massive increase in money supply flowing into very few hands it is impossible to predict how a solution comes about. But here’s one possible scenario: Deutsche Bank goes bust taking the system along with it and the president of the USA is personally bankrupt as a result. It can happen. Paper wealth just disappears like snow before the sun.
It looks like owning Precious metals, being Nature’s real money, is the only safehaven at this moment to protect at least a substantial portion of total wealth. No Change, No stocks.


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
44.95 (44.87)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
45 (45) 93 (93) 75 (72)
Allocation 0% (0%)


The gap that was filled at 45.27 and our subsequent exit has not provided any new direction since. A forecast based on technicals is difficult and probably fundamentally tricky given the economic uncertainties around the globe. Typically a contraction requires less oil consumption unless a major geopolitical dispute arises again. No Change.

7 August: On 5 August, 2020 Oil made our predicted full recovery of the gap open on March 9, 2020 at 45.27. Prices of the most liquid markets almost always retrace gap openings. This one took a little longer. Brent briefly touched 46.23 before retracing below 45. As Weekly and Daily risk have now turned down and Monthly not looking positively safe in a fairly neutral risk range, we have decided to get out of our loss position this morning. Badly timed trade, decent recovery and minimising risk. Back to square and a bit of cash. No position in Oil. With a world economy at risk of continued slow down there is no fundamental reason beyond technical risk. We may be looking to increase our metals position again on a next decent signal.

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
11800 (11970)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
66 (65) 85 (85) 70 (85)
Allocation 0% (0%)


The present consolidation range of 11,000 to 12,000 may well drive BTC towards a new annual high around 14,000 initially. This is a short term technical observation but potential bearish divergence could trigger a stronger reaction down if the market cannot hold its strength. We remain extremely risk aware until the 2800 gap from 3 years ago is filled even if that happens after seeing a major new high first. No Change.

7 August: A very strong performance, also fuelled by several influencers in the crypto space. Max keiser, Raoul Pal, Simon Dixon being amongst them. We think they are wrong this time if only because there is a gap to be filled at 2800. That gap existed in the Daily time frame before 24 hour trading with reasonable volume took over. So, in our view this is a real gap which lead to the extreme and highly speculative rally in 2017 and which made early adopters, including these influencers rather happy. We would strongly recommend checking out Simon Dixon’s YouTube channel. Very bright guy and very realistic about the chances of systemic failure and even BTC. The real reason why we think BTC, which is still the only crypto asset of any significance, is not ready to move is because the narrative is wrong. Influencers talk about the digital alternative to a collapsing monetary system, but at the same time ALWAYS mention the profit that can be made in US$. A profit in dollars as if the dollar will still have the upperhand when it comes to measuring wealth. That just does not make sense and thus pure wishful speculation. It does not mean BTC at $100,000 or even $1,000,000 cannot happen. Of course it can, but there is a flaw in that analysis if fiat currency would live on as it has since Bretton Woods. It would put too much power in too few hands and the Deep State won’t allow that to happen. Sure BTC could top $20k again or stop at $15k. This is a very high risk market still and should only be played with a percentage of wealth that one can afford to lose. No Change even though we love the crypto space as it adds a potential alternative layer of potential fiat currency and future trust. This will no doubt play a huge role for generations to come.


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0798 (0.0827)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
73 virtual (73) 20 (27) 67 (51)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


BEST tokens show pretty dull behavior even though the nominal level is a true incentive to own them given the major benefit on commission charges when trading crypto on the Bitpanda exchange as well as outright BEST token bonusses available each month from trading using BEST, which is like the sharia option away from earning interest. We keep this long term hold based on the expectation that this regulated exchange will offer all the modern tools for currednt future investing in edver more digital assets. BEST tokens will benefit substantially as a result.

7 August: When it comes to the gamble of where crypto is heading, logic says in the regulated monetary space. Whilst commissions paid with BEST tokens are nearly all burned and owners can pay 30% less commission plus earning a monthly incentive trading on the Bitpanda platform, BEST tokens are a very nice entry into the crypto space. It isn’t speculative as it guarantees a return in the form of discounted commissions and monthly trading volume depending incentives credited in BEST tokens. Owners of BEST could well be in for a very positive surprise. A small permanent hold in BEST looks to be a very low risk alternative to cash in the bank. Just open a Bitpanda account on line and go through simple but necessary AML compliance.

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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2020 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - OIL - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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