Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 17 July 2020

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3222 (3188)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
72 (70) 90 (85) 88 (87)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Market up 1.5% this week andt he question remains: when, not if, will this end? For 2 years now there is no technical risk evidence to own S&P, except unprecedented opportunity based on cheap money and blind large allocation to the top high techs, no matter what. The latter no doubt has paid off nicely but the money is only in hands that don’t need it whilst facing that overhanging risk of serious fiat money ‘demise’. The Long term risk weight position looks like there can only be another bearish divergence condition in the making even though the trend is up. Both daily and weekly risk are also in potential bearish divergence condition. Something big is awaiting our generation and we read about the possibilities all the time including a nice variety of conspiracy theories. The ‘whatever it takes’ formula is still working overtime. Until it isn’t. No Change.

10 July: S&P showed a rather unusual narrow range last week of just 80 odd points edging 2% higher from the previous week close. Technically this index continues to look heavy and whilst the analysis we show is the correct approach to minimising alloction risk, one cannot be sure due to massive support from low interest rate based purchases. All time frames are in “ready to turn down” risk mode. No change, no allocation to the S&P index


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
43.10 (43.26)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
38 (38) 95 (92) 86 (78)
Allocation 50% (50%)


Brent got pretty close to filling the 45.15 gap. Price consolidation is narrowing to a range not seen for a very long time which only predicts some larger move down or up. We first await the historic likelyhood of that gap being filled before contemplating exit. Geopolitical tension and extraordinary monetary conditions make an exit or entry strategy more difficult. No change for now.

10 July: Given the mild bearish divergence inside Daily time frame we could see a pause and slight price decline. This would enable the MT and LT time frames to get closer for another, possibly strong, price move upward into filling the March 45 handle opening gap and beyond. We stay long for now. No Change

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
9115 (9210)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
51 (51) 72 (74) 38 (65)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Little change again this week with much reduced volatility and a very narrow weekly range of just $300 not seen for months. Risk weight in the MT and LT timeframes lean towards a weakening price short term as Daily is still in downtrend. We still believe that Bitcoin at 2800 or lower will be seen before an inflation led new digital era makes its presence known. No change.

10 July: LT is in a weak uptrend but price too near upper resistance at 9600. MT and ST daily look weak.
No Change


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0773 (0.0773)
Trend ↓ (Virtual) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
75 (75) 34 (50) 35 (25)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


BEST appears to consolidate at current level after the short term Daily bottomed last week. Weekly risk is starting to diverge versus our virtual monthly and we could expect Daily risk to first show bullish divergence based on a lower price before the uptrend resumes. The BEST position in our view looks to make a similar start as Facebook’s first year although BEST is a different vehicle depending on an increase of other DIGITAL tokens tradeable against BEST on the BITPANDA exchange. No Change.

10 July: Bitpanda needs to seek new introductions which can be traded in BEST tokens. We would expect some positive vibes in that direction. Both Daily and Weekly risk are moving down rapidly enough on a 4% decline this week to warrent a bottom relatively soon. That bottom could easily setup for another strong rally where short term risk builds bullish divergence vs LT Monthly which should virtually sit around the 75 level. This allocation represents a hedge against the unknown of much weaker future fiat currency behavior. Rather Gold, Silver and BEST than money in the bank. Hence staying fully invested

Courtesy chart of the Binance coin in USD which started life in 2017 at 0.05.


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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2020 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - OIL - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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