Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | close 19 June 2020

Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 19 June 2020

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3059 (3037)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
60 (57) 85 (78) 55 (54)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Little price change last week and some liquidation due to further Corona outbreaks in various US States. With daily risk weight turning down on Friday we could see downward pressure building again short term. Since this market is no longer based on broad market participation price discovery and kept afloat with high risk unprecedented Central bank funding. Even if S&P fails to make a new high, monthly risk weight could show bearish divergence in its own timeframe. In 10 days time we will do an update on the Quarterly timeframe. For now this market remains very high risk with Medium term rapidly getting overbought. No Change.

12 June: All technicals tools have shown bearish price to risk signals in March. This hasn’t changed, hence a BTFD is only for speculators. It may happen again as we have witnessed so often during the past several years. But it DOES NOT change the picture of a high risk market being created by and for those who must stand in the way of a systemic failure. If economic indicators become totally irrelevant to equity index valuations, something is cooking. We hold to our target outlook nearer 1200, hence staying out of this market. Our guess is that if Weekly turns south again the move could be proportionally significant. No Change


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
41.95 (39.04)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
26 (25) 72 (60) 70 (65)
Allocation 50% (50%)


Brent price performance has been quite impressive shrugging off poor demand/supply noise. Short term we could see bearish divergence on risk weight with a higher price possibly filling that gap at $45.27. Depending on the size of the still expected further upmove we may hold a little bit longer or say goodbye to the position. Long term technicals appear to indicate that the advance may last longer. This will play a role in the decision to exit our long position at a smaller loss. No Change for now.

12 June: The high of 43.41 wasn’t enough to fill the gap so our position remains. Daily was overbought turning down with a fair divergnce type gap but not enough to call it a day. It looks like the Short term needs a pause to come more in line with the Long term uptrend. As it happens at around the $40 handle level Brent could even develop a trend into the 70’s again where a 12 year resistance line comes in play. Gaps ($45.27) will be filled, so no change for now

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
9362 (9385)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
48 (49) 87 (87) 41 (29)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Weekly trend turned Down from Up. Daily resumed downtrend and Monthly is narrowing and probably pausing to seek new direction from a neutral risk weight. This pictire increases the chance of renewed weakness towards the bottom of the Long term triangle now at 5050. No Change. No Investment.

12 June: Potential bullish divergence is developing between Daily and Weekly risk weight. Relative strength is not confirming nor is MACD. WE cannot exclude a short term spike to develop both a Short and Medium term overbought condition. This close to major long term reistance makes this market unattractive (higher risk) to be long at these levels. No change


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0799 (0.0800)
Trend NA (NA) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
NA (NA) 80 (76) 65 (34)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


Bitpanda’s BEST is narrowly holding around the 8 cents level. Daily risk weight trend moved up strongly towards 65 without price change whilst weekly stays down at the higher risk weight level of 80. This could potentially No alarm as the potential for this token is substantial and, unlike BTC, will represent intrinsic value. Long term hold.

12 June: Tuesday June 9 was a bullish divergence trigger between Daily and Weekly timeframes after hitting a intermediate low on Monday. Our position is otherwise fundamental as a protection against the negative tide of fiat regulation and inherent weakness of international bank transfer technology and counterparty risk in the international banking world. In much the same way as why digital banks like Revolut are growing rapidly. This is a loudest signal that the era of traditional consumer banking is coming to an end. As this is all Fintech and based on very similar technical scripts, Bitpanda is likely to formally join its fiat payment peer group in the near future since any person can accept payment in the form of its choice, whether national or international fiat money or any exchange listed token which can be exchanged for fiat within minutes. With a host of digital asset backed tokens being listed in coming years the potential for the BEST token is substantial as it will continue to act as a discount window for all token transactions through the Bitpanda exchange as well as a generic safehaven against systemic fiat currency uproar

Courtesy chart of the Binance coin in USD which started life in 2017 at 0.05.


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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2020 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - OIL - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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