Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | What will happen to stocks Oil and crypto? | 21 August 2020

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3396 (3367)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
83 (83) 93 (93) 83 (79)
Allocation 0% (0%)


The bulls and bears have said it all. The Robin Hood crowd is likely to get largly wiped out as the circus continues. If all common sense with stock price discovery is completely out the window, this puppet theater may just linger on until it stops. Risk is that the Stop will be sudden with a serious headbanging knockout effect for many participants. The formula designed by the world’s majors is based on insider information. One needs to really know how long this will last and when it stops. For that one must have access to both the institutional and mainstreet flows. Listening to Berkshire Hathaway isn’t enough anymore although they have very short lines odf communication to the major players in the equity industry.
The technical picture of course hasn’t changed and hinges on Long term risk weight which pushed us out of the market in Q4 of 2018. No change this week in Monthly and Weekly risk weight remaining both high risk and in bearish divergence build up. Buyers buy because it makes money as most of everything continues to move up, whether warranted by forward guidance or not. No Change. If anything, our Long term forecast is likely to become even more severely angled to the downside as this bubble keeps building.

14 August: With all time frames up at the close of business August 14, the S&P index appears to still ignore any potential market danger. The Monthly time frame is now showing a potential fourth bearish divergence in 3 years time. On each of these events we have seen the S&P make a correction followed by a rally into new stratospheric ground. The current price is technically suspect of making an irregular top whereas Stochastic, RSI and MACD in the Monthly time frames are all indicating high risk bearish divergence. Each of the high risk signals since 2018 are reasons to stay away from this market even though Fintech monolopies with strong earnings numbers have driven the indices higher.
The fairly rare broadening price formation seen since 2018 tells the story of disagreement amongst market participants and is generally a prelude of a bear market in the making. Having missed all of this potential profit in recent years, with hindsight only, whilst risk remains extremely high for equity investors is just part of a strategy to avoid major risk in financial asset allocation. No Change.


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
44.26 (44.95)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
44 (45) 90 (93) 63 (75)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Oil looks technically heavy. The expected recovery to fill the 45.25 gap from March took very long to materialize with an incredible narrowing of the daily ranges. From experience this picture is fairly bearish. Since our risk model will never short an asset class and is always unleveraged we will stay out of this market.

14 August: The gap that was filled at 45.27 and our subsequent exit has not provided any new direction since. A forecast based on technicals is difficult and probably fundamentally tricky given the economic uncertainties around the globe. Typically a contraction requires less oil consumption unless a major geopolitical dispute arises again. No Change.

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
11633 (11800)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
65 (66) 87 (85) 38 (70)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Short term Daily continues building some bullish risk weight divergence versus Weekly and Monthly. No strong signal either way where this market will move next. The Daily price channel and the main risk trends are up. Above 11,200 this market looks to continue stronger. A drop below 11,200 increases risk of moving into our still uncharted 2017 gap fill at 2800. At least until that happens we will not participate in this asset class.

14 August: The present consolidation range of 11,000 to 12,000 may well drive BTC towards a new annual high around 14,000 initially. This is a short term technical observation but potential bearish divergence could trigger a stronger reaction down if the market cannot hold its strength. We remain extremely risk aware until the 2800 gap from 3 years ago is filled even if that happens after seeing a major new high first. No Change.


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0791 (0.0798)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
73 virtual (73) 18 (20) 43 (67)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


The market clearly hasn’t discovered this pretty solid token with quite a few unsual benefits for token holders. Technical are beginnning to show that Short term risk is diverging positively versus Long term. We need another 5 or 6 months of data before the Monthky risk weight has plenty to show for and indicate the real level for this market. Even if only precious metals continue to see enough demand at this exchange, Bitpanda and the BEST token are a safe bet. Buying asnd selling Precious metals by the way on ther Bitpanda exchange is extremely easy and offers high speed pricing whilst any metals you own are 1:1 backed by physical. The crypto exchanges will continue to attract business as there are enough participants that prefer, rightly or wrongly, to own digital money over Fiat.

14 August: BEST tokens show pretty dull behavior even though the nominal level is a true incentive to own them given the major benefit on commission charges when trading crypto on the Bitpanda exchange as well as outright BEST token bonusses available each month from trading using BEST, which is like the sharia option away from earning interest. We keep this long term hold based on the expectation that this regulated exchange will offer all the modern tools for currednt future investing in edver more digital assets. BEST tokens will benefit substantially as a result.

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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2020 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - OIL - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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