Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 24 July 2020

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3212 (3222)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
72 (72) 91 (90) 75 (88)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Nu Guts no Glory. But in this case we will leave it to hardcore speculators and those with inner circle guarantees that unlimited funding continues to be pumped into equities by several large sovereign players and their wholesale and retail banking outlets. Monthly S&P looks similar (massive bearish divergence) to Platinum (massive bullish divergence) with this risk to price divergence on the cards (again). We simply believe that being in today’s equity markets is just not good for health generally and fuelled further by this Pandemic on our doorstep. Anyone owning a property and holding 10-25% of free assets in precious metals can afford to lose the rest and still be financially OK. The danger is with those who cannot afford a house or be active in even the smallest degree of wealth preservation. We live in a social dangerzone that can chase us for a long time. Looking at our world, that danger zone is being underestimated. No investment in the S&P or any other world index. Chapeau for those with the stomach to hold this risk and actually not lose money. Time will tell.

17 July: Market up 1.5% this week and the question remains: when, not if, will this end? For 2 years now there is no technical risk evidence to own S&P, except unprecedented opportunity based on cheap money and blind large allocation to the top high techs, no matter what. The latter no doubt has paid off nicely but the money is only in hands that don’t need it whilst facing that overhanging risk of serious fiat money ‘demise’. The Long term risk weight position looks like there can only be another bearish divergence condition in the making even though the trend is up. Both daily and weekly risk are also in potential bearish divergence condition. Something big is awaiting our generation and we read about the possibilities all the time including a nice variety of conspiracy theories. The ‘whatever it takes’ formula is still working overtime. Until it isn’t. No Change


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
43.25 (43.10)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
38 (38) 96 (95) 65 (86)
Allocation 50% (50%)


Last week, Brent got even closer to filling the 45.24 gap peaking at 44.86 and 44.75 resp. on Tuesday and Thursday. With Daily in correction, Weekly very overbought and Monthly in a low risk uptrend we prefer to stay with the position at least until the March gap fills and all tools develop a clear overbought condition. The present picture could drive this market a lot further towards the downtrend reistance line now at 75.00. No Change.

17 July: Brent got pretty close to filling the 45.15 gap. Price consolidation is narrowing to a range not seen for a very long time which only predicts some larger move down or up. We first await the historic likelyhood of that gap being filled before contemplating exit. Geopolitical tension and extraordinary monetary conditions make an exit or entry strategy more difficult. No change for now.

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
9600 (9115)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
51 (51) 72 (72) 38 (38)
Allocation 0% (0%)


BTC is just short of knocking against resistance at 9700 following a 5% rally in the last 72 hours. If that breaks it could develop strong speculative interest although we still favor the journey to a more stable much lower level in order to make Bitcoin a real challenge for fiat. Besides the regulatory issues that will arise. We actually love digital money but not for speculation or as a true hard asset safehaven like gold. The argument that Bitcoin and other crypto assets do not have custodian risk is a valid one. Whilst the strongest high profile media minds in this industry like Raoul Pal, Simon Dixon and Max Keiser argue their case based on huge monetary success, their narratives still relate to the market value of Bitcoin against FIAT currency. As we truly believe that a monetary reset is the end result of the present economic bubble it cannot be with a crypto asset that creates the same kind of extreme wealth for a few ‘lucky’ investors and without the military power necessary to engage the world. Just not that likely, so for now we stay out but with further increased interest in an awareness of digital money developments.

17 July: Little change again this week with much reduced volatility and a very narrow weekly range of just $300 not seen for months. Risk weight in the MT and LT timeframes lean towards a weakening price short term as Daily is still in downtrend. We still believe that Bitcoin at 2800 or lower will be seen before an inflation led new digital era makes its presence known. No change


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0780 (0.0773)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
75 virtual (75) 20 (34) 45 (35)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


Bitpanda’s BEST token is evidence of our interest in the digital world. If the investment works, which means just holding its own as an inflation proof asset we have succeeded. The reason is that BEST represents what we think could be an alternative digital token in this search for minimised custodian risk. We believe that a Financial Authority regulated organization in the digital asset space stands a good chance of becoming that alternative. Check out these smart young crypto entrepreneurs on Youtube and other popular social media channels. No Change.

17 July: BEST appears to consolidate at current level after the short term Daily bottomed last week. Weekly risk is starting to diverge versus our virtual monthly and we could expect Daily risk to first show bullish divergence based on a lower price before the uptrend resumes. The BEST position in our view looks to make a similar start as Facebook’s first year although BEST is a different vehicle depending on an increase of other DIGITAL tokens tradeable against BEST on the BITPANDA exchange. No Change.

Courtesy chart of the Binance coin in USD which started life in 2017 at 0.05.


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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2020 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - OIL - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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