Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | close 26 June 2020

Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 26 June 2020

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3019 (3059)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
58 (60) 83 (85) 45 (55)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Not surprising that the monthly risk weight turned up earlier this month following the largest bear market rally ever seen, whilst many still believe this Equity index has way more to go with predictions into the higher 3000’s. Largely based on QE to infinity or at least till the Nov 2020 US elections. We do not see that happening as all risk weight tools are still working on bearish divergence since the February peak. Hence we expect the S&P risk weight trend to turn back down again. Nothing technically, except the expected unexpected ‘whatever it takes’ central bank support, calls for a long term bull market run. No Change.

19 June: Little price change last week and some liquidation due to further Corona outbreaks in various US States. With daily risk weight turning down on Friday we could see downward pressure building again short term. Since this market is no longer based on broad market participation price discovery and kept afloat with high risk unprecedented Central bank funding. Even if S&P fails to make a new high, monthly risk weight could show bearish divergence in its own timeframe. In 10 days time we will do an update on the Quarterly timeframe. For now this market remains very high risk with Medium term rapidly getting overbought. No Change


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
40.69 (41.95)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
27 (26) 82 (72) 60 (70)
Allocation 50% (50%)


Brent oil didn’t quite make it last week to fill that gap down open from March, but the short term down move when finished can easily setup for another strong rally to fill that gap and even move well beyond. We stay with our position for technical reasons as well as the expectation form the gap to be filled before long. No Change.

19 June: Brent price performance has been quite impressive shrugging off poor demand/supply noise. Short term we could see bearish divergence on risk weight with a higher price possibly filling that gap at $45.27. Depending on the size of the still expected further upmove we may hold a little bit longer or say goodbye to the position. Long term technicals appear to indicate that the advance may last longer. This will play a role in the decision to exit our long position at a smaller loss. No Change for now

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
9050 (9362)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↓ (↓) ↓ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
48 (48) 82 (87) 25 (41)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Bitcoin is no alternative value based mature asset class. It remains pure speculation. technically BTC could find some support in the 8800 range, diverge shortb term against weekly and rally into resistance to resume the Medium term downtrend that just set in. We still believe we need to see 2800 and possibly much lower before this crypto currency can seen as a serious contender to compete with fiat money. No Change.

19 June: Weekly trend turned Down from Up. Daily resumed downtrend and Monthly is narrowing and probably pausing to seek new direction from a neutral risk weight. This pictire increases the chance of renewed weakness towards the bottom of the Long term triangle now at 5050. No Change. No Investment


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0805 (0.0799)
Trend NA (NA) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
NA (NA) 70 (80) 78 (65)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


Bitpanda’s BEST is holding well at the 8 eurocents level. Daily remains in a steady uptrend whilst Weekly is down with potential to turn up into a first price peak since the recent major rally started back in January.We need to wait for more monthly data before we can see a longer term technical trend developing. For now, BEST is a participation hedge in a new regulated Blockchain market of a growing multitude of asset backed and other very popular crypto tokens.
The position is a longer term hold. News is likely to be good news as Bitpanda is well capitalized with very little market risk. Positive marketing of the company and adding new exchange traded tokens is the recipe for strong expansion. No change.

19 June: Bitpanda’s BEST is narrowly holding around the 8 cents level. Daily risk weight trend moved up strongly towards 65 without price change whilst weekly stays down at the higher risk weight level of 80. This could potentially No alarm as the potential for this token is substantial and, unlike BTC, will represent intrinsic value. Long term hold

Courtesy chart of the Binance coin in USD which started life in 2017 at 0.05.


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Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2020 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - OIL - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

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