Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | close 29 May 2020

Forecast S&P-Oil-Crypto | 29 May 2020

S&P 500 Weekly Standard & Poor’s 500 Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Standard & Poor 500 LT-M MT-W ST-D
3057 (2956)
Trend ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
49 (47) 63 (58) 95 (87)
Allocation 0% (0%)


Big techs keep driving this S&P index higher with another 4% gain for the week. Fibonacci ratio’s can be interesting as targets in the right direction as many analysts have been referring to but they can be false as often as they can be ‘nearly’ spot on. As a trading tool these ratio’s cannot really be used unless confirmed by other strong tools. Weekly risk weight is up at 63 and looks to weigh heavy. It probably should have been more in overbought territory given the incredible S&P rebound. In this case it actually starts to give a much weaker feel to it. Monthly is still narrowly down which is also a monthly close. We would give this more meaning towards high risk of a strong correction or rather an inverted V shaped turnaround back to the secular S&P downtrend which started mid February. With daily in Overbought 95 risk weight and potential ending in bearish divergence, we remain 100% risk averse. No Change.

22 May: he Standard and Poors index had a strong week again indicating V shape recovery sentiment. Weekly risk weight trend turned back up at a neutral 58 with Daily getting overbought. Whether this sentiment to buy stocks in the absence of other traditional alternatives proves correct remains to be seen. This market is now flooded with printed easy money distributed via the 0% window at the discretion of fractional reserve banks. Monthly Long term charts point towards weaker price action as all technical tools have confirmed bearish divergence. That it its own right represents very high long term Risk. Hence no allocation to this S&P Index. And this also applies to stock indices around the globe. No Change


Brent Crude oil Weekly Brent Crude Oil Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

Brent LT-M MT-W ST-D
37.60 (35.12)
Trend ↑ (↑) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
18 (16) 41 (36) 84 (89)
Allocation 50% (50%)


With monthly risk weight in a strong uptrend at just 18 it is becoming increasingly likely that we may see Brent oil filling the gap down open at $45 on March 9. Price gaps are always filled and therefor trusted holds for investors if the exit is missed like in our own case. We’ll just have to be patient and find that preferred exit moment. By the same token we missed doubling onto a full allocation in the 20’s handles as the market became virtually untradeable and costly in short term derivatives. No Change.

22 May: As Brent held Long Term support level at 15.00 the subsequent rally into the present mid 30’s did come unexpected for many. With daily at non extreme overbought and Weekly and Monthly trends up we continue to hold expecting the $45 gap fill in due course. No Change

BTC Bitcoin Price, Weekly Bitcoin Price Risk Analysis Forecast

(Previous week in brackets)

BITCOIN BTC/USD LT-M MT-W ST-D
9550 (9150)
Trend ↑ (↓) ↑ (↑) ↑ (↓)
% Risk
Weight
44 (43) 82 (78) 68 (56)
Allocation 0% (0%)


BTC arguably look strong with all timeframes in an uptrend. So, on this technical scenario we might see that brief break of 10,000. Resistance through the 2 major peaks on Dec 2017 and June 2019 is at 10420. We could see a false break putting Bitcoin in a likely overbought condition. What may drive price higher is any potential to convert non taxed fiat cash into bitcoin. That will become increasingly difficult meaning that major market participants that aren’t really speculators become major sellers eventually. We still believe that the gap opening at 2800 in 2017 is the one to fill before this market has a change of becoming more mature. Bitcoin though is leading the way towards a near full digital economy. No change in remaining absent from this apparent overly manipulated market with just price following speculators and which still acts against the principle of managing portfolio risk in a mature asset class.

22 May: At the May 22 close BTC looks a little tired in the Medium and Long term time frames whilst daily risk is now neutral after having turned down. Generally this is considered a higher risk situation. Speculators we hear from are extremely bullish on Crypto, but we cannot see the regulatory case for the big breakthrough in terms of price moving substantially higher. No allocation, no change.


Bitpanda Pro – BEST/EUR Token Price Risk Analysis

(Previous week in brackets)

Bitpanda – BEST/EUR LT-M MT-W ST-D
0.0853 (0.0847)
Trend NA (NA) ↓ (↓) ↑ (↑)
% Risk
Weight
NA (NA) 81 (80) 70 (52)
Allocation 100% (100%)

BEST token live price 24/7


This junior market is too young to provide a long term monthly risk weight but a virtual level would possibly indicate an uptrend at the 70 level. This allocation is nothing more than an educated shot at what the future might bring in digital asset trading on a regulated exchange where compliance drives the seriousness of investor participants. Also technically this market still looks positive, but shocks, up and down, may occur as we know. No Change.

22 May: This young market still shows strong upward potential. The allocation is based on fundamental belief in a strong future European regulated exchange for crypto trading. Risk weight in Short term is in uptrend with plenty of room still to accellerate. Weekly shows hesitation at a highber risk level. Price action does not confirm a change of trend. Fore that we also need to wait a few months in order to get a clean monthly reading. An interesting defensive Hold expecting authorities to embrace crypto on a much wider scale in the near future. No Change

Courtesy chart of the Binance coin in USD which started life in 2017 at 0.05.


Forex markets Blog
Global markets Blog
Gold Silver Blog


Posted in A - All Financial Blogs | 2020 Forecast, GLOBAL - S&P500 - OIL - CRYPTO | EYEFORGOLD.

Leave a Reply